Why do I feel crazy for actually believing the O's can win the East?

[Redskins Rick]

Nothing wrong with wishing your team to win the Division, its call being a fan.

I think the only team on paper that is out of it, is Tampa Bay.

Got a lot of baseball to play!!!!!!!

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Bonecrusher52 said:

I give O's 5% of chance to win AL East.

 I don't see them winning the AL East. 

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Tx Oriole said:

 I don't see them winning the AL East. 

Did you think they would win the AL East in 2014?

[jamalshw]

Not impossible, but highly unlikely. I actually think it's just as likely they make it to the World Series as it is they win the AL East. I think a Wild Card berth plus a hot streak in October is more of a possibility than winning the East in a 162 game season. I think the Sox and Yankees are better teams and that'll play out over the course of the season for at least one (if not both) of them. I do, however, think they're in the same bucket as the Angels, Twins, etc. for the second Wild Card spot and chances for that are reasonable.

[Tx Oriole]

11 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Nothing wrong with wishing your team to win the Division, its call being a fan.

I think the only team on paper that is out of it, is Tampa Bay.

Got a lot of baseball to play!!!!!!!

You are right.there is a lot of ball to play.  The O's won't win the East IMO but crazier things have happened. 

[Tx Oriole]

3 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Did you think they would win the AL East in 2014?

I can't remember. Please realize I am not anti Oriole. Just because I don't think they will win the East doesn't mean I am not a fan. I want them to win. My heart says one thing but my mind says another. 

 

[spiritof66]

I prefer to go into a season with my expectations on the low side. So, sure I think the OP is kind of crazy, but if it works for him . . .  And of course it could happen. 

I tend to make up for the low expectations during the course of the season,. All it takes is a good month or two for me to start making plans for post-season baseball. No better example of that than 2017. 

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Tx Oriole said:

I can't remember. Please realize I am not anti Oriole. Just because I don't think they will win the East doesn't mean I am not a fan. I want them to win. My heart says one thing but my mind says another. 

 

My memory of that, was like most off-season, many people are able to point out all the flaws and off-season moves that didn't get mad.

its started out slow, and then kicked into high gear in mid-June.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Nite said:

Last year Ubaldo had 25 starts, 11 he was recorded for the loss. Lets face reality, of the 25 he put the team in a position to lose about 18 of them. Miley had 32 starts, lost 15 and probably put the team in position to lose 20. So that's 26 actual losses pinned to these two starters, but 38 theoretical losses. 

Assuming Cobb and Cashner are just career norms, we can actually expect both of those numbers to be halved. Even worse case I'm looking at both of them combining to lose 20-25, that's a 6-1 game swing. Then in the theoretical cut in half, that's 19 more games the O's should be in on. So best case we are talking a grand total of 25 more wins.

Your premise is wrong.   The O’s were 12-13 when Ubaldo started, 15-17 in Miley’s starts.  Combined, the team was 27-30 in their starts, not 19-38 as you assumed.    

Last year, Cobb’s and Cashner’s teams were 29-28 when they started.    So, that’s a two game improvement.    

I expect more improvement than that, but it’s nowhere near the magnitude you were suggesting.   

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I can't remember. Please realize I am not anti Oriole. Just because I don't think they will win the East doesn't mean I am not a fan. I want them to win. My heart says one thing but my mind says another. 

 

I don't care if they think I'm anti-Oriole. 

I do not think this is a playoff team.  I expect Tillman to be a dumpster fire with Cashner barely better.  I expect one of the other three to have some sort of significant injury.  That leaves three guys from the reserves having a significant number of starts.  I think the bullpen will be exposed due to over use.  I don't think they get on base enough on offense and I am not impressed by the team defense.

 

[Nite]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Your premise is wrong.   The O’s were 12-13 when Ubaldo started, 15-17 in Miley’s starts.  Combined, the team was 27-30 in their starts, not 19-38 as you assumed.    

Last year, Cobb’s and Cashner’s teams were 29-28 when they started.    So, that’s a two game improvement.    

I expect more improvement than that, but it’s nowhere near the magnitude you were suggesting.   

How many of the 30 losses were due to the fact they had 0 chance to get back into it? that's what I'm talking about. No I'm not assuming these magically turn into wins. But if 15 of those 30 were 0 chance in hell of winning, this year you can expect to win 7 or 8 of them right?

[Spy Fox]

We'd need a great many things to go right to get above 90 wins, and the Yankees need a lot to go wrong to be under that number. The Sox are also clearly better than us on paper, though I don't think they have as much margin for error as the Yankees.

If those teams are relatively healthy, I think the talent gap will be too wide for us to take the division even if we have a good year. 

[glenn__davis]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't care if they think I'm anti-Oriole. 

I do not think this is a playoff team.  I expect Tillman to be a dumpster fire with Cashner barely better.  I expect one of the other three to have some sort of significant injury.  That leaves three guys from the reserves having a significant number of starts.  I think the bullpen will be exposed due to over use.  I don't think they get on base enough on offense and I am not impressed by the team defense.

 

But other than that, you think they're OK?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Nite said:

How many of the 30 losses were due to the fact they had 0 chance to get back into it? that's what I'm talking about. No I'm not assuming these magically turn into wins. But if 15 of those 30 were 0 chance in hell of winning, this year you can expect to win 7 or 8 of them right?

How many of the 27 wins were due to the fact the offense dropped a huge number on the other team?  It goes both ways. 

[theobird]

Because they absolutely can win the AL East. It isn't the most likely outcome, but this is baseball. And this is exactly why baseball is the greatest game on earth. You have to play the games, and the game is much more mental than physical. Some proven guys have big years, and a couple of up starts pop up out of nowhere, and your in business. You gotta love this game.