Worth of a Machado Rental?

[Beef Supreme]

2 hours ago, Punchandjudy said:

A prospect is just a prospect.  Manny certainly could net a nice return on paper depends on a team's need.  If you are the Blue Jays and come September Tulo is hurt you may be willing to part with Bo Bichette if you think you can make a serious push and their window of opportunity is closing.  Look what Chapman and Miller netted the Yankees, no reason to think that Manny continuing to have a strong season wouldn't be attractive to several teams come July.  

They had better make the trade before September if they want Manny to be eligible to play in the post-season.

[foxfield]

2 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

Nobody wants Jacoby Ellsbury. Not the Orioles. Not Buck. Not the MFY. Nobody.

My bad, clearly the attempt at humor did not work for you.  The Orioles kind of have a bunch of folks no one wants...that was the point.  

[Beef Supreme]

Just now, foxfield said:

My bad, clearly the attempt at humor did not work for you.  The Orioles kind of have a bunch of folks no one wants...that was the point.  

I see now.I was confused because the first two guys are the kind of players that everyone wants.

fwiw, I would take Ellsbury's contract if they were getting Severino and Gleyber T. If...

[foxfield]

2 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

I see now.I was confused because the first two guys are the kind of players that everyone wants.

fwiw, I would take Ellsbury's contract if they were getting Severino and Gleyber T. If...

Yes but No one is giving up that much for Manny.  Even before you get to Judge for Davis and then Davis back.  And of course the real part I am hitting on is not that folks here overvalue our talent. It's that people here under value the importance of the total disfunction of our FO.

 

There is no fix coming, until the FO mess is fixed.  That can be done by naming a GM and giving him/her control and a budget.  And I don't want the current structure trading assets at the deadline or making draft picks.  I believe so strongly that the structure is messed up that I believe we could improve things without changing names.  Resign DD, he extends Buck, defines the role of Brady but both understand they report to him.

 

That isn't going to happen, of course, but until we have a GM, with power, it's not going to get better.

[Beef Supreme]

1 minute ago, foxfield said:

Yes but No one is giving up that much for Manny.  Even before you get to Judge for Davis and then Davis back.  And of course the real part I am hitting on is not that folks here overvalue our talent. It's that people here under value the importance of the total disfunction of our FO.

There is no fix coming, until the FO mess is fixed.  That can be done by naming a GM and giving him/her control and a budget.  And I don't want the current structure trading assets at the deadline or making draft picks.  I believe so strongly that the structure is messed up that I believe we could improve things without changing names.  Resign DD, he extends Buck, defines the role of Brady but both understand they report to him.

That isn't going to happen, of course, but until we have a GM, with power, it's not going to get better.

My point was that there was only one way I, as GM, would take Ellsbury. That's why I bolded "if."

I do not expect that MFY would offer Severino and Gleyber nor do I expect the Dodgers to offer Verdugo and Buehler.

[Mondo Trasho]

At this point, the O's are set to get some kind of draft pick if Manny leaves after the season. Any team wanting to rent him is going to have to give up more than that in order to get him. That's the only calculus that should be done at this point. Obviously try to get the most you can, but at the very least it must be more valuable than the draft pick.

My guess is the O's are going to ride out the season with Machado. I don't see them pulling the trigger on a trade.

[foxfield]

27 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

My point was that there was only one way I, as GM, would take Ellsbury. That's why I bolded "if."

I do not expect that MFY would offer Severino and Gleyber nor do I expect the Dodgers to offer Verdugo and Buehler.

I get your point.  IF being the key.  Not IF you were GM.  IF we had one.

[Beef Supreme]

3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I get your point.  IF being the key.  Not IF you were GM.  IF we had one.

They have one. John and Lou's pick.

[weams]

2 hours ago, birdwatcher55 said:

I tend to agree with your prediction at this point. But my gut tells me some GM or owner is going to get off the rails at deadline and make a serious offer for  Machado.

Or like if you were the Nationals. Or the Cubs, Or The Mariners or Rangers. You should buy Manny now. An extra day of Manny is value added.

[sportsfan8703]

13 hours ago, POR said:

You live in a fantasy world.

A 35-40 HR, GG, 25 year old, SS/3B for peanuts. If you don’t think we’re getting a good return you’re living in a nightmare of pessimism. 

Everyone is essentially naming the same names we couldn’t get for Zach Britton last deadline  

Quite frankly nobody knows what we can get for Machado because we’ve never seen an everyday position player of his caliber/age Traded mid season before. 

The only player I think we can compare to is when Sabathia got traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee. And he was a pitcher and limited to every 5 days of pitching. 

Maybe Beltran in 2004 when he was traded from KC to HOU. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A 35-40 HR, GG, 25 year old, SS/3B for peanuts. If you don’t think we’re getting a good return you’re living in a nightmare of pessimism. 

Everyone is essentially naming the same names we couldn’t get for Zach Britton last deadline  

Quite frankly nobody knows what we can get for Machado because we’ve never seen an everyday position player of his caliber/age Traded mid season before. 

The only player I think we can compare to is when Sabathia got traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee. And he was a pitcher and limited to every 5 days of pitching. 

How about some simple math?

Lets say he has a six win season and he gets traded at the halfway mark of the season.  Put 9M on a win means he will produce 45M in value.  He's making 16 million so that is roughly 30 million in excess value.  Divide that in half for half a season and we are down to 15M in excess value.

You can expect about 15M in value coming back.  Maybe you get a desperate team and they give you 20M.  That isn't a lot.  It certainly isn't a future star.

[sportsfan8703]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How about some simple math?

Lets say he has a six win season and he gets traded at the halfway mark of the season.  Put 9M on a win means he will produce 45M in value.  He's making 16 million so that is roughly 30 million in excess value.  Divide that in half for half a season and we are down to 15M in excess value.

You can expect about 15M in value coming back.  Maybe you get a desperate team and they give you 20M.  That isn't a lot.  It certainly isn't a future star.

Weren’t you against a Verlander trade?  So by your math, you made the same argument, trading Chance Sisco was a franchise crippler for us.  

You cant just Hollywood off your told you so’s. You have to admit where your thinking was wrong too. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, sportsfan8703 said:

Weren’t you against a Verlander trade?  So by your math, you made the same argument, trading Chance Sisco was a franchise crippler for us.  

You lost me.

 

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You lost me.

 

Man, I don’t feel like searching for that thread. It was when Verlander cleared waivers last August. But you used the same type of WAR/Value in $ argument and how it would be a terrible trade. 

Verlander would’ve been a steal for us. He was a steal. 

I’ll just go ahead and agree with the masses on here that we’d be lucky to get the Yankees 8th best prospect for Machado. That’ll save me 100 pages of reading between now and the deadline. 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Man, I don’t feel like searching for that thread. It was when Verlander cleared waivers last August. But you used the same type of WAR/Value in $ argument and how it would be a terrible trade. 

Verlander would’ve been a steal for us. He was a steal. 

I’ll just go ahead and agree with the masses on here that we’d be lucky to get the Yankees 8th best prospect for Machado. That’ll save me 100 pages of reading between now and the deadline. 

Bad process can lead to solid results in Baseball.  So yea it is possible that a "bad" deal for Verlander could end up being a steal.

That is baseball, the same game that has Didi Gregorious with eight hr in April