Rosenthal on Tex and the Orioles

[davearm]

Added the ages each guy was in the first full year of their deal (or Tex would've been). Tex will be 29 next year. MCab is the only guy I wouldn't take into consideration as a baseline here. He's too unique of a situation. The others all apply for various reasons. The most recent of Soriano, Wells, and Beltran appear to be the best bets.

I think something in the 7/$126M range that Wells got makes the most sense (actually didn't realize he had signed that exact deal when I brought it up earlier in the thread). 8 years is a possiblity for sure, but I think that 7-years might be more likely.

Frankly getting the Rangers' 8/140 deal offered by a team he actually wants to play for might be enough.

[Mackus]

Teixeira is probably better than Soriano or Beltran. If you are talking fantasy points, then you might have something.

Beltran was coming off back-to-back years of a 130 OPS+ while playing CF and stealing 40+ bases at a 92% rate. So his value and Teixeira's were pretty similar, Beltran probably was even higher given his huge playoff performance before hitting the market.

[tywright]

They might but most GMs are still looking at the traditional stats.

If Tex ends up with a 270 BA and 28 homers but a good OPS+, i guarantee you that he won't get the as good a contract as he hopes.

I think you're selling GM's short...every FO has a stat guru in there letting the GM know about the sabermetric stats for each player. The O's now have Matt Klentak to head this.

Now a GM can leverage a player's "poor" .270BA 28HR season into a lower contract, but they still know that player is worth a little extra.

[Mackus]

They might but most GMs are still looking at the traditional stats.

I don't believe this for a split-second. No way in this day and age are most guys relying mostly on the traditional stats. They all know a lot about the newer stats, certainly more than you or I but probably not Drungo and 1970 and Baltimoron and others, and they all have specialists working for them that know even more, probably more than our resident gurus (largely because its their job and they have the time).

[Sports Guy]

I call BS on this. No way in this day and age are most guys relying mostly on the traditional stats. They all know a lot about the newer stats, certainly more than you or I but probably not Drungo and 1970 and Baltimoron and others, and they all have specialists working for them that know even more, probably more than our resident gurus (largely because its their job and they have the time).

Ask Carl Pavano how BS this is.

[Mackus]

I think you're selling GM's short...every FO has a stat guru in there letting the GM know about the sabermetric stats for each player. The O's now have Matt Klentak to head this.

Now a GM can leverage a player's "poor" .270BA 28HR season into a lower contract, but they still know that player is worth a little extra.

Exactly right, IMO.

[Sports Guy]

40 homers, 290 BA, 120 OPS+

28 homers, 270 BA, 135 OPS+

Which player gets the larger deal?

[JTrea81]

Beltran was coming off back-to-back years of a 130 OPS+ while playing CF and stealing 40+ bases at a 92% rate. So his value and Teixeira's were pretty similar, Beltran probably was even higher given his huge playoff performance before hitting the market.

Beltran is a CFer and relies on his speed as one of his main weapons. Tex plays 1B so his skill set is likely to have less decline than Beltran's as he ages and that puts him over Beltran in value IMO.

[IamtheSkip]

40 homers, 290 BA, 120 OPS+

28 homers, 270 BA, 135 OPS+

Which player gets the larger deal?

In the end... does it matter in this situation? If reports are right, the O's would go after Teixeira if he has an OPS+ of 12.

[Mackus]

40 homers, 290 BA, 120 OPS+

28 homers, 270 BA, 135 OPS+

Which player gets the larger deal?

The second guy would have to walk a TON to be able to make up for 12 fewer HRs and 20 batting average points and still have an OPS that is over 100 points higher (difference between a 120 OPS+ and 135 OPS+ is 113 points if league average is .750). Like Barry Bonds-esque walk rate.

So even though thats almost no information, and doesn't take into consideration age, position, or track record, I'll take the guy with the fewer HR and lower BA but grotesquely higher OBP and SLG.

[tywright]

40 homers, 290 BA, 120 OPS+

28 homers, 270 BA, 135 OPS+

Which player gets the larger deal?

You'd be surprised...a team won't give a 7/8 year deal to a 1B that can't field so there's no way a 40HR guy will have a 120OPS+ and get signed to a big extension. Unless of course you are the Rangers or Reds.

Actually a guy with 40HR would never have a OPS+ as low as 120

[Sports Guy]

The second guy would have to walk a TON to be able to make up for 12 fewer HRs and 20 batting average points and still have an OPS that is roughly 100 points higher. Like Barry Bonds-esque walk rate.

So even though thats almost no information, and doesn't take into consideration age, position, or track record, I'll take the guy with the fewer HR and lower BA but grotesquely higher OBP and SLG.

And if you think a GM would, you are crazy and it shows you haven't been paying attention to anything.

[Mackus]

Beltran is a CFer and relies on his speed as one of his main weapons. Tex plays 1B so his skill set is likely to have less decline than Beltran's as he ages and that puts him over Beltran in value IMO.

I totally agree that Tex is a safer bet to stay within earshot of the production that got him paid than Beltran was of staying within his. I don't think that really changed their relative market values at the time of their contracts though.

[Fan4Life]

Frankly getting the Rangers' 8/140 deal offered by a team he actually wants to play for might be enough.

Even if a couple teams north of where he wants to play are offering $160M or more?

[tywright]

And if you think a GM would, you are crazy and it shows you haven't been paying attention to anything.

A GM would if that player had a good track record and was good defensively.