Did Jones throw Davis under the bus?

[atomic]

From Melewski blog :

With O’s offense struggling so much, Jones felt trying to score a second run on his RBI double in the fifth was worth the gamble: “What else can we lose? I look at it that way. What else bad can happen? Try it, screw it. We have to try and do something different. Imagine if (Trea) Turner short-hopped it (the throw home) or bobbled it (on the relay), we score a run. Manny is probably going to get walked. Hopefully C.D. (Chris Davis) comes up and drives everyone in. But obviously. that scenario didn’t happen. But I like the aggression on the basepaths. We need to do something. Trying something different is good. We haven’t hit well with men in scoring position, so when we get a hit, we have to try and score him"

Seems like Jones is trying to say if they didn't send Peterson Davis would have struck out anyway. 

[glenn__davis]

I don't see how you get that out of that quote.

[DirtyBird]

No

[atomic]

2 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

I don't see how you get that out of that quote.

He mentions how if they don't send Peterson Manny is walked. Also mentions how they have nothing to lose. 

[Enjoy Terror]

I think you’re reaching

[MagicBird]

Davis is already under the bus after Palmer kicked him there.   So, no, AJ couldnt have thrown him under the bus.

[Tx Oriole]

49 minutes ago, atomic said:

He mentions how if they don't send Peterson Manny is walked. Also mentions how they have nothing to lose. 

Which they don't. The season is over anyway. 

[Tx Oriole]

31 minutes ago, MagicBird said:

Davis is already under the bus after Palmer kicked him there.   So, no, AJ couldnt have thrown him under the bus.

That's a good point. 

[glenn__davis]

57 minutes ago, atomic said:

He mentions how if they don't send Peterson Manny is walked. Also mentions how they have nothing to lose. 

Saying we have "nothing to lose" is basically just a concession that they're playing out the string already.  Has nothing to with Davis.

You can view it any way you'd like, but there's nothing there to me that makes me think Jones is doing Davis wrong.

[pastorfan]

1 hour ago, glenn__davis said:

I don't see how you get that out of that quote.

It does, however, seem that Jones is tired of the status quo. It cant sit well with anyone that Davis was hitting 4th. 

[LA2]

2 hours ago, atomic said:

From Melewski blog :

With O’s offense struggling so much, Jones felt trying to score a second run on his RBI double in the fifth was worth the gamble: “What else can we lose? I look at it that way. What else bad can happen? Try it, screw it. We have to try and do something different. Imagine if (Trea) Turner short-hopped it (the throw home) or bobbled it (on the relay), we score a run. Manny is probably going to get walked. Hopefully C.D. (Chris Davis) comes up and drives everyone in. But obviously. that scenario didn’t happen. But I like the aggression on the basepaths. We need to do something. Trying something different is good. We haven’t hit well with men in scoring position, so when we get a hit, we have to try and score him"

Seems like Jones is trying to say if they didn't send Peterson Davis would have struck out anyway. 

"Hopefully C.D. (Chris Davis) comes up and drives everyone in."--Doesn't sound hostile toward Davis at all.

"We haven’t hit well with men in scoring position."--I take AJ's "we" here literally, that is, I think it refers to several spots in the lineup, not just Davis's.

[Frobby]

It’s not really throwing anybody under the bus, it’s just logical thinking.   There’s a 76% chance Davis will make an out, and an 85% chance he’ll fail to get a hit.    So if you think the runner has a greater than 25% chance of scoring, you send him.    

[SteveA]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

It’s not really throwing anybody under the bus, it’s just logical thinking.   There’s a 76% chance Davis will make an out, and an 85% chance he’ll fail to get a hit.    So if you think the runner has a greater than 25% chance of scoring, you send him.    

Right.  Which is why I was saying it wasn't a bad send in the game thread and everyone disagreed with me.

The numbers don't quite work out that way because there actually is a finite chance Davis could hit a grand slam (he does have 4 HRs) or we could go on to score multiple runs and have a bigger inning by holding him.  So the real cutoff in terms of expected runs is probably higher than 25%.  But it's certainly under 50.

Some folks react to every out at the plate as a bad send, but if a 3rd base coach never had outs at the plate, then that would mean he's holding guys with a 90% chance to make it, and that would be leaving way too many possible runs on the table.

[joelala]

8 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Right.  Which is why I was saying it wasn't a bad send in the game thread and everyone disagreed with me.

The numbers don't quite work out that way because there actually is a finite chance Davis could hit a grand slam (he does have 4 HRs) or we could go on to score multiple runs and have a bigger inning by holding him.  So the real cutoff in terms of expected runs is probably higher than 25%.  But it's certainly under 50.

Some folks react to every out at the plate as a bad send, but if a 3rd base coach never had outs at the plate, then that would mean he's holding guys with a 90% chance to make it, and that would be leaving way too many possible runs on the table.

I agreed with you. It was a fine send.  Hindsight is 20/20. Obvioulsy  there's no way Dickerson is doing any complex probability calculations in his head while the play is unfolding.

If you're team averages the third fewest runs in the majors, you have a problem scoring, meaning that even risky opportunities like that one don't come up very often.  When they do, you take them.  It was a gut decision in the moment that turned out wrong, but it was by no means a a criminally bad send as many on the game thread were alleging last night.

You have to be aggressive, especially when you have Davis due up.

 

 

[TouchemAll]

3 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

I don't see how you get that out of that quote.

Either do I?