Luis Montanez

[JayThomas]

As has been mentioned before, Montanez is a former 3rd overall pick by the Cubs and is turning out to be a late bloomer of sorts. While I don't think his power numbers will translate to the big leagues as he's piled up monster numbers in hitters parks such as Erie and Harrisburg, Montanez is a pure hitter. He started his career as a shortstop and since moving to the outfield not long after being drafted, Montanez has mentioned how he's tried to put on more muscle to get more of a home run arc on certain swings. He's going to get a good swing on anything over the plate but, as Tony mentioned, I too believe he may struggle a bit with off-speed pitches.

Wow, this guy was drafted as a shortstop? How about we have him play fall/winter ball back at short?

[justD]

As has been mentioned before, Montanez is a former 3rd overall pick by the Cubs and is turning out to be a late bloomer of sorts. While I don't think his power numbers will translate to the big leagues as he's piled up monster numbers in hitters parks such as Erie and Harrisburg, Montanez is a pure hitter. He started his career as a shortstop and since moving to the outfield not long after being drafted, Montanez has mentioned how he's tried to put on more muscle to get more of a home run arc on certain swings. He's going to get a good swing on anything over the plate but, as Tony mentioned, I too believe he may struggle a bit with off-speed pitches.

Wow, this guy was drafted as a shortstop? How about we have him play fall/winter ball back at short?

Where did you get that quote? I also was wondering if he just likes Harrisburg, and if that isn't skewing things. His home/away splits are also striking:

Home: .233/.362/.661

Away: .365/.416/1.096

[markpolis]

Wow, this guy was drafted as a shortstop? How about we have him play fall/winter ball back at short?

Not again?! Almost every player signed to a professional contract has played SS at one point in time in their playing career. Does that mean we should try all of them at SS?

[LookinUp]

Not again?! Almost every player signed to a professional contract has played SS at one point in time in their playing career. Does that mean we should try all of them at SS?

For the Orioles? Yes! :laughlol:

[oriole_way]

This has to be the issue. He's been to the AAA level twice for extended periods - once with Iowa (Cubs AAA) for 80-some games, and then last year with the Tides for half the season.

It seems to me a lot of guys end up as "career minor leaguers" because once they start facing pitching that doesn't offer up mistakes as often, pitching that includes more polished off-speed pitches, they aren't as successful.

In 2006 in AA, he had an OPS of .924 after 145 AB. So they promote him to Triple-A Iowa, and his OPS drops to .651 over the remaining 245 AB of the season.

In 2007, he started out in AAA and was "up" to .742 OPS over 212 AB. I don't recall now if he was back and forth or simply sent down to Double-A Bowie once and stayed, but that's where he ended up at the end of the year and obviously the beginning of 2008, with an OPS of .828 in '07 and .919 in the first half of '08.

So to me, while he seems to tear up AA, he doesn't seem to be able to handle AAA pitching. And he's been given extended periods to try to do so, by two different organizations in two different leagues.

Could this be why he doesn't get as much attention? Or does the "better pitching prospects at AA" rationale for keeping Montanez in AA negate this entire line of thinking?

There's another way to view his stats.

Just by looking at Montanez's minor league stats, he's never really done well when he first advances to a level. This was actually more apparent earlier in his career. A brief synopsis of his career:

At age 18, he did well in rookie ball, with a .950 OPS in 192 AB.

But then he struggled at various A level stops for 3-4 years until age 22, when he posted an .862 OPS at A- ball in 266 AB. He did well again the next year at A ball,....

but then he struggled at AA ball. At age 23, he put up a .704 OPS (153 AB). He did better at AA the next year at age 24, putting up a .927 in 141 AB, at which point he was promoted to AAA. He didn't fair well there and therefore had to play back at AA again the following year at age 25, putting up an .828 OPS. This year, he's having his best extended success at AA, posting a .919 OPS in 373 AB.

So he has struggled in multiple attempts at A and AA ball but he did improve at each level before finally hitting his stride.

The same could be true with AAA. In his first attempt at AAA at age 24, he posted a .652 in 245 AB. At age 25, he posted a .742 OPS in 212 AB. Although not earth shattering, that's still a 90 point improvement in his 2nd attempt. (And his first attempt in AAA was in the hitter friendly PCL league, while his 2nd attempt was in the International league.) I don't think it's farfetched that he would do even better if given another opportunity, now in his age 26 season.

Now I don't know if he'll ever help the Orioles at the major league level, but I do think that his production this year merits another opportunity for advancement. What do the Orioles have to lose by giving him a chance?

Now granted, his age does work against him and I've never actually seen him play in person, but I haven't seen anybody like Tony or otherwise come out and say that he definitely can't hit a certain pitch or that he has a definite flaw in his swing or.....etc.

[clarence]

I don't think as an organization so thin in position prospects that 450 ab's in AAA is enough reason to pigeonhole a player as a career minor leaguer. If he was 22 years old and putting up these numbers he would never see AAA. Four years and 400+ at-bats make that much difference? Maybe he's grown up and is taking baseball as an occupation a little more seriously.

[olehippi]

I don't think as an organization so thin in position prospects that 450 ab's in AAA is enough reason to pigeonhole a player as a career minor leaguer. If he was 22 years old and putting up these numbers he would never see AAA. Four years and 400+ at-bats make that much difference? Maybe he's grown up and is taking baseball as an occupation a little more seriously.

Sorry.....suggesting logical possibilities is totally unacceptable. Only deeper, darker reasoning is allowed here......

I suspect that what you suggest might be happening to Montanez is not uncommon in most organizations. A player gets pegged as a AA or AAA player because of a brief failure at a higher level, and possibility because he wasn't quite ready at that point in his career. Yet, it sticks to him....like an actor who gets type-cast for certain roles. IMO, I think Montanez could become be a very good asset if given the chance.

[Anonymous]

This has been an interesting thread.

I’m not sure how Lou’s skills would translate at the major league level right now or next year. But he’s had an interesting, if somewhat bumpy, career progression. He’s also putting up fantastic numbers this season. His OPS would be nearly 1,000 if not for a sub-700 start in April. His defense is reportedly very good in LF and at least reasonably acceptable in the other two spots. I’ve also seen only positive reports on his baseball instincts, professionalism, and off-the-field conduct. How can you not root for a guy like this?

So at least from an emotional standpoint, which is part of the deal when you’re a fan of the team, I’d sure be annoyed if Lou doesn’t get a genuine shot at cracking the roster and getting some real playing time, whether it’s this season or next – particularly if he winds up going elsewhere and finding success.

[JayThomas]

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayThomas

Quote:

As has been mentioned before, Montanez is a former 3rd overall pick by the Cubs and is turning out to be a late bloomer of sorts. While I don't think his power numbers will translate to the big leagues as he's piled up monster numbers in hitters parks such as Erie and Harrisburg, Montanez is a pure hitter. He started his career as a shortstop and since moving to the outfield not long after being drafted, Montanez has mentioned how he's tried to put on more muscle to get more of a home run arc on certain swings. He's going to get a good swing on anything over the plate but, as Tony mentioned, I too believe he may struggle a bit with off-speed pitches.

Wow, this guy was drafted as a shortstop? How about we have him play fall/winter ball back at short?

Where did you get that quote? I also was wondering if he just likes Harrisburg, and if that isn't skewing things. His home/away splits are also striking:

Home: .233/.362/.661

Away: .365/.416/1.096

JustD, see BowieMike's post #18 in this thread. I don't know how to get this reply tool to identify an entire post and reply to it. I just grabbed the text that I wanted out of Mike's post and quoted it manually in the reply tool.

[blid]

Not again?! Almost every player signed to a professional contract has played SS at one point in time in their playing career. Does that mean we should try all of them at SS?

For the Orioles? Yes! :laughlol:

Looking at the baseball cube, this guy played ss/2b all the way from 2000-2004. I guess it's still far-fetched but I kinda wonder.

[clarence]

I'm just glad, even if he isn't considered a prospect:rolleyestf: that he's getting to start in the all-star game. Much deserved. Too bad he's so old that he will never amount to a big leaguer.

[Who's On 1st]

I'm just glad, even if he isn't considered a prospect:rolleyestf: that he's getting to start in the all-star game. Much deserved. Too bad he's so old that he will never amount to a big leaguer.

You can't say Never!

BTW, Lou finished second in the AA homerun contest.

[gfrank]

His home/away splits are also striking:

Home: .233/.362/.661

Away: .365/.416/1.096

I don't think I've ever seen a Bowie Baysox player ever have favorable home splits(except Wieters, but he is going to save us all from the apocalypse so he doesn't count). There was a minorleaguebaseball.com article last year talking about how Bowie was hands-down the toughest park for hitters in the minor leagues, due to a variety of factors. I heard that they were going to try to even things out a bit and make the place a bit more hitter-friendly, but it's not like the place has

REGARDLESS, if anybody is looking for something to brighten up their day, I humbly suggest they consider the age similarities of Luke Scott when thinking about Lou Montanez. It's very easy to be dismissive of Montanez due to the fact that the guy has been NINE YEARS in professional baseball without sticking in Triple-A, and the fact that he's a "failed" top draft pick. Although looking at Luke Scott's career, it really wasn't until he was 26 and in Double-A, just like Montanez, that he finally clicked. And in Scott's case, he started the year in Single-A and experienced his explosion in Round Rock - a definite hitter's park - when it was still their Double-A affiliate.

I really don't see how Houston Astros fans could have had any more room to be excited about Luke Scott than we do Luis Montanez. He was an aging prospect that had never really put up impressive numbers on any professional level, and had already been dumped by the organization that drafted him. But track record doesn't mean so much when you're talking about a late bloomer.

I dunno about everybody else, but I find Montanez extremely interesting. He seems to get a little bad press over trouble with breaking balls, but the guy isn't striking out that much. I almost made a Walter Young comparison, but Young struck out A LOT more and only seemed to be good for the long ball. It's hard to know what to expect out of Montanez, but I think he's definitely somebody we should all keep our eyes on, if only because it's fun to finally see a Bowie Baysox player at the top of the Easter League leader board in ABSOLUTELY EVERYTHING.

[Tony-OH]

I say this again, I think people may end up very surprised what this guy will do in the future. Of course I take it into consideration this is basically his third season in Double-A and he's 26 years old, but let's face it, the guy does enough for me to see him having at least a career as a 4th outfielder.

He hits right-handers as well as left-handers, he hits to all fields, he has some pop, and he plays an good left field with an average left fielders arm. He doesn't strike out much and although he's doesn't walk a ton, he's not a free swingin hacker.

I could see Montanez having a similar career as Jay Payton if given a chance.

[AgentOrange]

I say this again, I think people may end up very surprised what this guy will do in the future. Of course I take it into consideration this is basically his third season in Double-A and he's 26 years old, but let's face it, the guy does enough for me to see him having at least a career as a 4th outfielder.

He hits right-handers as well as left-handers, he hits to all fields, he has some pop, and he plays an good left field with an average left fielders arm. He doesn't strike out much and although he's doesn't walk a ton, he's not a free swingin hacker.

I could see Montanez having a similar career as Jay Payton if given a chance.

Do you think we would see him called up if Jay Payton gets moved at the deadline?