Machado Trade Expectations

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Agreed.  I just don't see any scenario where that happens.  He's having an MVP season.  Even a half season of that is worth a couple top prospects to a contending team.  

One in which Peter gets involved.

[ChuckS]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

One in which Peter gets involved.

I'm just speaking on the kinds of deals I expect to be on the table.  Not the likelihood of ownership/FO screwing it up and not agreeing to a trade, which is a distinct possibility. 

I'm not sure what point you are arguing exactly.  

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, AnythingO's said:

I have zero expectations because we don't know who will be approving any possible trade. If it is PA, it won't happen at all. If it is Louis and Brady approving then I think Dan will get the best decent offer he can. I think no matter what happens we finish last and get the #1 pick. the only question to me is whether what we are offered is better than a comp pick.

Well I think it will be.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you can't get a better return than the value of the comp pick you don't trade him.

 

Right he will just walk away.

[tntoriole]

13 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Well I think it will be.

Well, I suppose either an offer hasn't been yet or he would have been dealt or, more likely, they are continuing the game of "not good enough" as the clock is running out rather than the criteria being ultimately  "better than comp pick."     If we assume that there has already been offers floated  that would be more than a comp pick value and that those offers have been thus far refused dating back to the winter, then the question is "when does the clock really work against you", namely as we get closer to trade deadline and no deal yet, then I would expect at some point that the collective offers not only will not go up, but they will go down even further as the opposing teams say...."No way can they just hold on to him and take only a comp pick."   And the games available that Manny would be helping another team win click down every game he plays for us. 

[foxfield]

I can’t answer the poll without knowing the goal. Are we doing a total rebuild?  My expectations and judgement will be entirely different than say...trading with the Cubs for Addison Russell so we can go for it again next year. 

[Oriol3s]

2 hours ago, tntoriole said:

then the question is "when does the clock really work against you", namely as we get closer to trade deadline and no deal yet, then I would expect at some point that the collective offers not only will not go up, but they will go down even further as the opposing teams say...."No way can they just hold on to him and take only a comp pick."   And the games available that Manny would be helping another team win click down every game he plays for us. 

As long as there is a desperate team, the clock only works against the O's when it hits the trade deadline (because he WON'T clear waivers in August) or he gets injured.  I'd like to see a trade sooner than later, but I truly believe that teams will still pay with decent prospects all the way to the deadline if they think Manny gets them to the playoffs or the World Series.

[Camden_yardbird]

I know the Yankees got a great haul for Chapman, but Manny is a lot more valuable than Chapman was.  This should be a good trade with a nice return.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I know the Yankees got a great haul for Chapman, but Manny is a lot more valuable than Chapman was.  This should be a good trade with a nice return.

He is but...

The Cubs were prepared to overpay given the unique situation they were in.  I don't think any team this year has the need to win that the Cubs had.

Every single team can use a Chapman so the pool of potential suitors is higher than it is for a position player.

[Aglets]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He is but...

The Cubs were prepared to overpay given the unique situation they were in.  I don't think any team this year has the need to win that the Cubs had.

Every single team can use a Chapman so the pool of potential suitors is higher than it is for a position player.

How many teams  have an MVP candidate at SS or 3B?

I'm sure the list is more than 1 or 2 but it can't be that big of a number.......

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aglets said:

How many teams  have an MVP candidate at SS or 3B?

I'm sure the list is more than 1 or 2 but it can't be that big of a number.......

I'm not saying Machado wouldn't be an upgrade at either short or third for a lot of teams.

But just because he is superior to third baseman X on team Y doesn't mean it is feasible for team Y to trade for Machado and replace third baseman X with him.

Every team can replace the last man in their bullpen with Chapman.

[Aglets]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not saying Machado wouldn't be an upgrade at either short or third for a lot of teams.

But just because he is superior to third baseman X on team Y doesn't mean it is feasible for team Y to trade for Machado and replace third baseman X with him.

Every team can replace the last man in their bullpen with Chapman.

Just seems like a silly an arbitrary distinction to me.   Obviously Chapman would be upgrade for a ton of teams in their bullpen.   That doesn't mean it's feasible or a good idea for Team X to trade for him.............etc.

The question should be about WAR added to the team I suppose........and I have to think the WAR added by Machado should be significant in a lot of cases.   Yea the longer we wait in 2018 the more that number goes down............but you only need one desperate team 'on the cusp' to jump in.

[Can_of_corn]

18 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Just seems like a silly an arbitrary distinction to me.   Obviously Chapman would be upgrade for a ton of teams in their bullpen.   That doesn't mean it's feasible or a good idea for Team X to trade for him.............etc.

The question should be about WAR added to the team I suppose........and I have to think the WAR added by Machado should be significant in a lot of cases.   Yea the longer we wait in 2018 the more that number goes down............but you only need one desperate team 'on the cusp' to jump in.

I already agreed that Manny is the more valuable player.

But it isn't that simple. 

[nadecir]

Desperation gets GMs fired faster than anything else in baseball.

Analytics are in now in baseball, and that leaves emotions out of the picture in making decisions in the front office.  Just take a look at what's happening in free agency to give you an idea of what MLB front offices are thinking.

The Orioles need to learn to rely on analytics on their decision making, just like the rest of baseball.  Signing players on the tail end of their careers, while trading away young pitching prospects, has really hurt this organization badly long-term.

Every day Machado spends on the Orioles roster lowers his value to an acquiring team.  He should have been traded in the off-season. The rational decision would have been to take the best of the several offers when he could have brought the acquiring team a compensatory draft pick.  However the Orioles made the silly decision to try to go all-in when they had no real chance of competing.

The Orioles are the epitome right now of how not to run a major league organization.  And Oroles fans are going to pay the the price for it for the next several years.

You have to really wonder what attendance at Camden Yards will be like after this season.  Maybe the kids can sit anywhere they want for free next year.

[joelala]

4 minutes ago, nadecir said:

Desperation gets GMs fired faster than anything else in baseball.

Analytics are in now in baseball, and that leaves emotions out of the picture in making decisions in the front office.  Just take a look at what's happening in free agency to give you an idea of what MLB front offices are thinking.

The Orioles need to learn to rely on analytics on their decision making, just like the rest of baseball.  Signing players on the tail end of their careers, while trading away young pitching prospects, has really hurt this organization badly long-term.

Every day Machado spends on the Orioles roster lowers his value to an acquiring team.  He should have been traded in the off-season. The rational decision would have been to take the best of the several offers when he could have brought the acquiring team a compensatory draft pick.  However the Orioles made the silly decision to try to go all-in when they had no real chance of competing.

The Orioles are the epitome right now of how not to run a major league organization.  And Oroles fans are going to pay the the price for it for the next several years.

You have to really wonder what attendance at Camden Yards will be like after this season.  Maybe the kids can sit anywhere they want for free next year.

This sums it up perfectly.  We (Angelos) refuse to change with the game.  Always have refused.  So until the franchise is no longer in his stubborn hands, I'm not sure how much anything matters...