Machado Trade Expectations

[Greg Pappas]

Regarding the return we receive, what are your expectations of whatever Machado trade takes place?

[DirtyBird]

Good grief

[Moose Milligan]

I am holding tight on the idea that we won't trade him at all.  Comp pick.  I think we get reports that Angelos nixes deals that a fair amount of us would be overall pretty happy with.  

The poll is open to interpretation as viewing the return as outstanding, solid, decent, etc.  Had I picked one of those options it would be through the lens of trading him as a rental.  Outstanding return for a rental?  

 

[Sessh]

I decided to be foolishly optimistic today and chose a "decent" return, but what probably happens is no trade at all. Maybe things have been shaken up due to the huge amount of light that has been shined into the warehouse that has exposed the dysfunction within that the FO will be shamed into dealing Machado, but I think most people will be disappointed with the returns if that happens. Just about anything is better than a comp pick, though.

[joelala]

He won't be traded, but if he is, don't count on anything close to a haul.  I think we should be extremely happy with if we get a top 100 prospect. 

Take a look at what Detroit received at the deadline last year for J.D. Martinez.  Machado is having a better season so far, but I think our offers will all be in that ballpark, and we'll decline them all, for better or worse.

[NCRaven]

I said "Solid."  But that has to be put in context.  Solid today is not what it would have been if we made the trade after 2016.  For me it means that Duquette will make the best deal possible.  

[Tryptamine]

Just some ideas of where I think things will be based on the vibes out there right now. Please don't look at offseason season rankings for a guy's current value.

From STL: Austin Gomber, Harrison Bader, Elehuris Montero

From LAD: Mitchel White+Caleb Ferguson

From ARI: Taylor Widener+ Domingo Leyba+17/18 year old lottery piece

From CLE: Willi Castro+George Valera(this is going to seem light unless you really know your prospects, but these two guys have big upside especially Valera who is getting enormous hype as the next Juan Soto)

[SteveA]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Just some ideas of where I think things will be based on the vibes out there right now. Please don't look at offseason season rankings for a guy's current value.

From STL: Austin Gomber, Harrison Bader, Elehuris Montero

From LAD: Mitchel White+Caleb Ferguson

From ARI: Taylor Widener+ Domingo Leyba+17/18 year old lottery piece

From CLE: Willi Castro+George Valera(this is going to seem light unless you really know your prospects, but these two guys have big upside especially Valera who is getting enormous hype as the next Juan Soto)

I'm sorry, I have to laugh at this!

Juan Soto has done great in the minors and now has had a great week in the majors.   But I don't think he has established himself as anything yet to the point where you can talk about there being a "next".   So many guys have had a great first week in the majors.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have Soto.   But when you are looking for the "next" something, you want someone you hope can duplicate a real success, not great portential with an extremely small sample size of ML success.

[Natty]

Ownership will want too much and no team will agree. So we get nothing. And Manny will not re-sign with this sinking ship. He wants to play with a winning team. 

[AnythingO's]

I have zero expectations because we don't know who will be approving any possible trade. If it is PA, it won't happen at all. If it is Louis and Brady approving then I think Dan will get the best decent offer he can. I think no matter what happens we finish last and get the #1 pick. the only question to me is whether what we are offered is better than a comp pick.

[ChuckS]

14 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I have zero expectations because we don't know who will be approving any possible trade. If it is PA, it won't happen at all. If it is Louis and Brady approving then I think Dan will get the best decent offer he can. I think no matter what happens we finish last and get the #1 pick. the only question to me is whether what we are offered is better than a comp pick.

This isn't really much of a question.  A comp pick is worth maybe a team's 11-15th best prospect.  

Manny will certainly bring back more than that in a trade.  Multiple prospects inside an organization's top 10 and maybe a cost controlled major leaguer who would be worth much more than a comp pick on its own.  

So if they don't trade Manny I highly doubt the excuse can be that the return would have been worth less than the comp pick.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

This isn't really much of a question.  A comp pick is worth maybe a team's 11-15th best prospect.  

Manny will certainly bring back more than that in a trade.  Multiple prospects inside an organization's top 10 and maybe a cost controlled major leaguer who would be worth much more than a comp pick on its own.  

So if they don't trade Manny I highly doubt the excuse can be that the return would have been worth less than the comp pick.  

A disagree that a comp pick at the end of the first round is the equivalent to an 11-15 pick.  Pretty sure the end of the season top 10 lists almost always include first round picks from the previous draft.  Would have to be a stacked farm system for them to fall to 11 and I think 15 is never going to be the case.

[ChuckS]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

A disagree that a comp pick at the end of the first round is the equivalent to an 11-15 pick.  Pretty sure the end of the season top 10 lists almost always include first round picks from the previous draft.  Would have to be a stacked farm system for them to fall to 11 and I think 15 is never going to be the case.

I don't think it's far off.  Ryan Mountcastle was ranked # 11 by MLB.com in 2015 after we drafted him.  And we by no means had a deep/talented system.  

Regardless, my original point that any Machado return will be worth more than a comp pick stands.  It's hard for me imagine us not getting multiple top ten prospects in any potential return, and at worst we will get at least one.  

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I don't think it's far off.  Ryan Mountcastle was ranked # 11 by MLB.com in 2015 after we drafted him.  And we by no means had a deep/talented system.  

Regardless, my original point that any Machado return will be worth more than a comp pick stands.  It's hard for me imagine us not getting multiple top ten prospects in any potential return, and at worst we will get at least one.  

If you can't get a better return than the value of the comp pick you don't trade him.

 

[ChuckS]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

If you can't get a better return than the value of the comp pick you don't trade him.

 

Agreed.  I just don't see any scenario where that happens.  He's having an MVP season.  Even a half season of that is worth a couple top prospects to a contending team.