Machado Trade Expectations

[connja]

On 5/30/2018 at 5:16 PM, joelala said:

He won't be traded, but if he is, don't count on anything close to a haul.  I think we should be extremely happy with if we get a top 100 prospect. 

THere is a pretty good chance you can get a top 100 prospect with the draft pick, so I"d hold out for better than that.

[connja]

 

13 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I would have had no problem accepting the reported offer.

And you know that isn't me using hindsight.

What was the reported offer for Britton?

[drjohnnyfeva]

Manny is having a great season.  We need to expect two Mancini-like players at the point he broke in on in 2016 for Manny.  Or one present major league guy and a Mancini-like guy.  Mancini came in on a short stint and contributed to the point you knew he was going to be on the team the next year and beyond.  Plus two really good prospects after those... maybe one really good one and two with a lot of upside... for me, that gets it done. 

It seems like the Braves are going to have the most need, but that means Manny playing 3rd the rest of the season... not that we care.  And we shouldn't when pursuing the best return. 

If it's me, I'm trying to package Manny and Britton.  Britton could come out a shell of himself and likely will look rough getting started.  But having that potential dead end closer might make the difference on getting that third really good Mancini-like prospect with Manny's two ready to go major leaguers and two or three really good upside guys on the back end.  Netting 6, 7, or 8 guys in short order would be nice.  But it would take Britton (...or maybe Brach) to get the additional talent.

[drjohnnyfeva]

Regardless of what I think they might get, I'm a realist and the club has not proven to be adept at trading under the current regime.  I liked the Andrew Miller and Trumbo pick up... The others I could have done without.  I wish we would have locked up Miller and jettisoned O'Day when he was up.  Anyway, I think we merely net a decent return.  I'd venture to say many to most are going to be disappointed. 

[Can_of_corn]

47 minutes ago, connja said:

 

What was the reported offer for Britton?

I don't recall the specific names.  Sorry.  I do remember that I would have been fine with it last fall.

Of course I didn't expect a big return considering the season he had been having, I just didn't want to pay him 12M for 2018.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

Regardless of what I think they might get, I'm a realist and the club has not proven to be adept at trading under the current regime.  I liked the Andrew Miller and Trumbo pick up... The others I could have done without.  I wish we would have locked up Miller and jettisoned O'Day when he was up.  Anyway, I think we merely net a decent return.  I'd venture to say many to most are going to be disappointed. 

Brach, Bleier.

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't recall the specific names.  Sorry.  I do remember that I would have been fine with it last fall.

Of course I didn't expect a big return considering the season he had been having, I just didn't want to pay him 12M for 2018.

https://www.camdenchat.com/2017/8/31/16234234/orioles-trade-rumors-zach-britton-astros-colin-moran

[spiritof66]

4 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It's their 5th and 11th best prospects. Gamboa is blocked by Crawford so he's probably expendable. Neither is a top 100 MLB prospect. 

 

5) Arquimedes Gamboa, SS, Grade B: Age 20, signed out of Venezuela in 2014, played most of ’17 at age 19; hit .261/.328/.378 with six homers, 33 walks, 52 strikeouts in 307 at-bats in Low-A, very credible for his age, finished hot hitting .340 in August/September; switch-hitter with some polish, gap power, reasonable strike zone judgment and 60-grade speed; arm and range should work at shortstop, cut error rate in half last year; on course for breakout season; ETA 2021.

 

11) Enyel De Los Santos, RHP, Grade B-: Age 22, from the Dominican Republic, traded from the San Diego Padres to the Phillies for Freddy Galvis in December 2017; posted 3.78 ERA in Double-A with 138/48 K/BB, 131 hits; another hard-thrower with mid-90s fastball, throws strikes, curveball and change-up both have moments but often not in the same game; I think he’s a bit more likely to remain a starter than the similar (but taller) Franklyn Kilome but other observers like Kilome a little better; ETA 2020.

 

To state the obvious: Most teams have a few late -teens or early-20s guys like this in their systems because they aggressively scout, sign and develop talent from the Dominican and Venezuela. The Orioles refuse to invest dollars and resources in that direction. So we get Latin American talent only out of other teams' dumpsters -- or by trading Manny Machado. That's sad. 

[POR]

4 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

It's their 5th and 11th best prospects. Gamboa is blocked by Crawford so he's probably expendable. Neither is a top 100 MLB prospect. 

 

5) Arquimedes Gamboa, SS, Grade B: Age 20, signed out of Venezuela in 2014, played most of ’17 at age 19; hit .261/.328/.378 with six homers, 33 walks, 52 strikeouts in 307 at-bats in Low-A, very credible for his age, finished hot hitting .340 in August/September; switch-hitter with some polish, gap power, reasonable strike zone judgment and 60-grade speed; arm and range should work at shortstop, cut error rate in half last year; on course for breakout season; ETA 2021.

 

11) Enyel De Los Santos, RHP, Grade B-: Age 22, from the Dominican Republic, traded from the San Diego Padres to the Phillies for Freddy Galvis in December 2017; posted 3.78 ERA in Double-A with 138/48 K/BB, 131 hits; another hard-thrower with mid-90s fastball, throws strikes, curveball and change-up both have moments but often not in the same game; I think he’s a bit more likely to remain a starter than the similar (but taller) Franklyn Kilome but other observers like Kilome a little better; ETA 2020.

 

It appears to just be Heyman picking names off a prospect list.  Prospect lists are typically made in the off season and rarely updated.  It is several months into the season and things do change. See Ryan McKenna. 

De Los Santos stock has been great in AAA (1.40 era, 1.07 whip, 194 average against and 56 k in 51 innings)  and his stock has increased significantly.  Rotowire does update their prospect rankings more frequently and De Los Santos is 72 overall and the Phillies 3rd ranked prospect.

I don't know much about Gamboa and he is young but he is certainly not setting the world on fire at full season A (256/ 332 / 665 with 0 hrs and 2 steals). 

[Tryptamine]

Enyel De Los Santos would be a great get for Manny, he's got a lot of helium right now. This is why I said earlier in this thread, do not look at preseason rankings to decide how you should feel about these trade offers. Just a few months of minor league games can change the landscape drastically.

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, connja said:

 

What was the reported offer for Britton?

I read that Moran was the infielder in the deal. I believe he was on the DL at the time and part of the alleged reason the trade was not approved by ownership. I would assume that the Os were also asking for Whitley but I'm not sure it was confirmed.....hindsight being what it is ....whomever nixed it is a moron!

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I read that Moran was the infielder in the deal. I believe he was on the DL at the time and part of the alleged reason the trade was not approved by ownership. I would assume that the Os were also asking for Whitley but I'm not sure it was confirmed.....hindsight being what it is ....whomever nixed it is a moron!

They're a moron because Britton got hurt or you think Moran is something special?

[Lucky_13]

15 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

They're a moron because Britton got hurt or you think Moran is something special?

Well Moran curenttly has an ops+ of 112 for the Pirates and the Orioles have a black hole at third base...

[Roll Tide]

54 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

They're a moron because Britton got hurt or you think Moran is something special?

Yes ...according to BBref ...Moran is a .775. OPS player through his first 186 ABs of regular playing time in the Majors.

If they could've got Whitley and one of Alcala or Armenteros it would've been a great trade.

Heck ...if they could've gotten Moran, Alcala, and Armenteros I would've been happy with the deal.

Armenteros would be in our rotation and Alcala would likely be at AA. He looks like he's going to be good.

[Camden_yardbird]

Been watching Moran all year.  Real deal.  It's too bad that deal got nixed.  However it may not have been the Moran part of the deal that hot nixed for injury concerns.  It was either reported or hypothesized that the pitcher on the deal was Paulino, and there are a lot of concerns there.