How did they get this bad?

[weams]

24 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Strikeout have always been a part on Davis.   He had approximately 200 Ks even in his good years.  But his drop off in hits over the last 2.3 years has been related to the shift IMO.

I just don't know what to say about Schoop and Mancini.

He was talking about watching strike three.

Mancini needs to DH. Or he'll never be that hitter. 

[Barnaby Graves]

Age?  Team's getting old and 2012 was 6 years ago.  Core defensive guys have clearly lost athleticism.  It happens.  It's why contracts suck.

[Aristotelian]

Last year looks like more of an aberration than norm for Schoop. He has always been prone to long slumps with a typical Orioles high K/low OBP power hitting approach. Mancini has gone in a tailspin since hurting his knee. It's really tough to play at the major league level when you are less than 100%.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Last year looks like more of an aberration than norm for Schoop. He has always been prone to long slumps with a typical Orioles high K/low OBP power hitting approach. Mancini has gone in a tailspin since hurting his knee. It's really tough to play at the major league level when you are less than 100%.

There is no evidence that Mancini is playing hurt.

 

[Frobby]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

Last year looks like more of an aberration than norm for Schoop. He has always been prone to long slumps with a typical Orioles high K/low OBP power hitting approach. Mancini has gone in a tailspin since hurting his knee. It's really tough to play at the major league level when you are less than 100%.

Mancini hit fine for 2+ weeks after hurting his knee.   I don’t think that’s the issue.   

[VICIOUS]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

It makes sense if you cut Davis.  

If he gets enough plate appearances are the red sox responsible for the extension too?

 

[JR Oriole]

Although I have no evidence of this, I suspect what has happened to them is what happens to a lot of "losing" teams. I have to believe they come to the ballpark expecting to lose.  The pitchers expect to be hit hard with no defense to help them, and the hitters (other than Machado) expect to be overmatched.  They see the Nats and Yankees come in and not only do they know those teams are better than them, but they expect it to show on the field.  And, the players also know that no matter how bad they are, they will never be held accountable.  None of the coaches or anyone in the front office will ever be fired, nobody will be traded, and nobody will be sent down unless a roster move has to be made.  So if you know you can't compete, but you will play and have a job no matter what, you get.....17-41. 

[OriolesMagic83]

I think a lot has to do with the talent the O's traded away for marginal upgrades and draft picks given up for below average starters.  I know there is a thread that outlines the amount of talent the O's have given up.  Its not just that the O's gave up a lot of talent, but also that they got back 5th starters and 3rd/4th OFs, etc.  How much better would this team be if they had Ed Rod, Hader, Davies, first round picks for Ubaldo and Gallardo.  Then you add in all the talent the O's didn't select in the international draft.  I understand some of the trades, such as Ed Rod for Miller, but there has been a lot more talent leaving the O's in the last few years than entering the O's system.  

[tntoriole]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Well, if you mean individually, I think that Frobby as usual nails it above.  We have too many people slumping at the same time and are sinking with Davis in the lineup daily and Beckham hurt etc.

 

But really we are moving away from what got us to good.  We are atrocious defensively and you really cannot underestimate this.  We have gone from 3 to 5 potential gold glove players Manny, Davis, Wieters, Hardy and Jones to no one.  And I don't mean no one, I mean no one under consideration.  This made out pitching better, it made our offense more potent and it made the team better to watch.

So other than being the organization being mismanaged like a third world country, and that fact that we play that guy from the local beer league at first base and bat him 4th or 5th, I would have to say the single biggest from when we were good to now is that we have gone from very good defensively to very poor.

I agree with most all of this.   Offensively, our OPS by batting slot has looked like this....

in 2016

Position 1- .737, Position 2- .832, Position 3- .803, Position 4-  .759, Position 5- .843, Position 6- .739, Position 7- .742, Position 8- .747, Position 9- .614

In 2018

Position 1- .613, Position 2- .851, Position 3-.944, Position 4- .644, Position 5- .620,  Position 6- .603,  Position 7-.815,  Position 8- .480,  Position 9-. 570

Davis is the largest culprit, but others as noted have also underperformed- and our power numbers have gone in the toilet- by this date in 2016 we had 92 home runs,  this season, in 2018, we have 68 home runs.   

Pitching wise

In 2016

ERA- 4.31 and WHIP 1.36

In 2018

ERA- 5.01 and WHIP 1.52

Our starting pitching is still terrible.  This was the case last season and while not quite as terrible, it is still terrible.   And the bullpen has missed the performance of Britton tremendously. 

Defensively

In 2016  team fielding pct.   .987

In 2018 team fielding pct.    .981

And more sophisticated measures would be even worse as our defense is worse at every position on the field in 2018 compared to 2016. 

 

How we have arrived here is that Tillman collapsed, Gausman has  never fulfilled and has regressed from 2016,   Bundy is sort of where Gausman was two years ago- full of promise but still erratic,  Cashner and Cobb are really not what they advertised as of yet and actually have underperformed Gallardo and Ubaldo in 2016 (if you can believe that was possible)....offensively, we have lost the previous power bats of Davis and Trumbo- the guys occupying their uniforms are basically imposters,  Kim, Bourn and Rickard in 2016 were better offensively than this year's group of Mancini, Rickard, Gentry....Hardy hitting .270 at short was much more of a contributor offensively than what we have gotten out of the Beckham, Valencia, Jace, Alvarez offensive and defensive dumpster fire at third base (since Manny obviously is now at short).   Manny's performance is the only outlier that is better in 2018.  

 

 

[weams]

 

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, JR Oriole said:

Although I have no evidence of this, I suspect what has happened to them is what happens to a lot of "losing" teams. I have to believe they come to the ballpark expecting to lose.  The pitchers expect to be hit hard with no defense to help them, and the hitters (other than Machado) expect to be overmatched.  They see the Nats and Yankees come in and not only do they know those teams are better than them, but they expect it to show on the field.  And, the players also know that no matter how bad they are, they will never be held accountable.  None of the coaches or anyone in the front office will ever be fired, nobody will be traded, and nobody will be sent down unless a roster move has to be made.  So if you know you can't compete, but you will play and have a job no matter what, you get.....17-41. 

I don't know about the security part for most players and coaches.  Even if Buck comes back I think McDowell and  Coolbaugh are toast after the season.

The guys that are FA or release candiates will probably be gone.   As the players come up from the farm or players are acquired in trades others will lose playing time or their jobs.

A team can't be this bad and not see a lot of changes.

[wildcard]

29 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

I agree with most all of this.   Offensively, our OPS by batting slot has looked like this....

in 2016

Position 1- .737, Position 2- .832, Position 3- .803, Position 4-  .759, Position 5- .843, Position 6- .739, Position 7- .742, Position 8- .747, Position 9- .614

In 2018

Position 1- .613, Position 2- .851, Position 3-.944, Position 4- .644, Position 5- .620,  Position 6- .603,  Position 7-.815,  Position 8- .480,  Position 9-. 570

Davis is the largest culprit, but others as noted have also underperformed- and our power numbers have gone in the toilet- by this date in 2016 we had 92 home runs,  this season, in 2018, we have 68 home runs.   

Pitching wise

In 2016

ERA- 4.31 and WHIP 1.36

In 2018

ERA- 5.01 and WHIP 1.52

Our starting pitching is still terrible.  This was the case last season and while not quite as terrible, it is still terrible.   And the bullpen has missed the performance of Britton tremendously. 

Defensively

In 2016  team fielding pct.   .987

In 2018 team fielding pct.    .981

And more sophisticated measures would be even worse as our defense is worse at every position on the field in 2018 compared to 2016. 

 

How we have arrived here is that Tillman collapsed, Gausman has  never fulfilled and has regressed from 2016,   Bundy is sort of where Gausman was two years ago- full of promise but still erratic,  Cashner and Cobb are really not what they advertised as of yet and actually have underperformed Gallardo and Ubaldo in 2016 (if you can believe that was possible)....offensively, we have lost the previous power bats of Davis and Trumbo- the guys occupying their uniforms are basically imposters,  Kim, Bourn and Rickard in 2016 were better offensively than this year's group of Mancini, Rickard, Gentry....Hardy hitting .270 at short was much more of a contributor offensively than what we have gotten out of the Beckham, Valencia, Jace, Alvarez offensive and defensive dumpster fire at third base (since Manny obviously is now at short).   Manny's performance is the only outlier that is better in 2018.  

 

 

I think the pitchers would be a lot better if the O's had a good defense.

[Frobby]

54 minutes ago, VICIOUS said:

If he gets enough plate appearances are the red sox responsible for the extension too?

 

I don’t think the extension is in play.  I think his release by the Red Sox terminates his extension.   

[tntoriole]

52 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think the pitcher would be a lot better if the O's had a good defense.

Some, sure....but the Orioles pitching staff in our division winning year in 2014 had 52 home runs surrendered by this point in that season...we have given up 80.  

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

There is no evidence that Mancini is playing hurt.

 

True. It is very possible that he just isn't that good, or a combination of the two.