David Hernandez: Snub me? I'll show you!

[Tony-OH]

I can see the argument for Erbe's upside being higher but not so sure I could have said the same for Beato, even at the time. I've never seen (admittedly just a few times on web.tv at Aberdeen), heard, or seen reported, Beato's velocity being anything other than low 90's, after being drafted (I heard mid 90's before he was drafted). Beato's numbers at Delmrava were so-so, and comparing strikeout numbers there's not even much of a comparison. Even at the time of the rankings I believe Hernandez was considered to have a plus fastball and a plus slider. So maybe I didn't say anything at the time (I don't remember) but that doesn't mean there wasn't some oversight involved. It seems like 20/20 now but it would be interesting to hear the reasoning of why Beato was ranked ahead of Hernandez back then. I know your already said he had higher upside, but my question is, "WHY"?

Quite simply because there's more to our rankings then going only by the stats. I'm quite happy with where we ranked Hernandez last year and I think he's still going to end up lower than a lot of people will think on this year's list. Do I think he's in the top ten, most likely. But he's not in the top tier pitching prospects like Tillman, Arrieta, Spoone (when healthy) and Matusz (when he signs).

I think Hernandez will pitch in the major leagues, but I'm still not convinced it will be as a starter when it's all said and done. He needs to command his secondary offerings better and more consistently.

What I like about him is his fastball misses bats, sorta like George Sherrill. I really think he'll be able to have success in the major leagues for an inning or two with his current stuff, especially if he can command his off speed offerings better.

He's taken steps forward this year in some areas but has regressed in others. His strikeout rate has stayed the same but his walk rate his gone back up to where it was in Delmarva, and that's not a good sign especially for a fly ball pitcher.

He'll move up to Norfolk next year and will be added to the 40-man roster this off season.

There's nothing wrong with being excited about a player, but you I'm sure you know we take more than the stats into consideration when we make our rankings.

BTW, as for Beato, his velocity really fell off this year and that's very worrisome, especially when coming off a sub par year last year. I wonder if he's been hiding something the last two years because the stuff I saw when he was in Aberdeen was pretty special.

He's certainly taken a step back this year unfortunately and will certainly be below Hernandez on this year's list.

[orioole28]

Nope. We cannot say that.

Hernandez Going to New Hampshire

I don't see this posted. If that's the case, I'm getting a kick out of posting it ahead of orioole26.

That's not fair!! I've been out of town for a few days and I just found out myself. He really deserved to go.

[orioole28]

Quite simply because there's more to our rankings then going only by the stats. I'm quite happy with where we ranked Hernandez last year and I think he's still going to end up lower than a lot of people will think on this year's list. Do I think he's in the top ten, most likely. But he's not in the top tier pitching prospects like Tillman, Arrieta, Spoone (when healthy) and Matusz (when he signs).I think Hernandez will pitch in the major leagues, but I'm still not convinced it will be as a starter when it's all said and done. He needs to command his secondary offerings better and more consistently.

What I like about him is his fastball misses bats, sorta like George Sherrill. I really think he'll be able to have success in the major leagues for an inning or two with his current stuff, especially if he can command his off speed offerings better.

He's taken steps forward this year in some areas but has regressed in others. His strikeout rate has stayed the same but his walk rate his gone back up to where it was in Delmarva, and that's not a good sign especially for a fly ball pitcher.

He'll move up to Norfolk next year and will be added to the 40-man roster this off season.

There's nothing wrong with being excited about a player, but you I'm sure you know we take more than the stats into consideration when we make our rankings.

BTW, as for Beato, his velocity really fell off this year and that's very worrisome, especially when coming off a sub par year last year. I wonder if he's been hiding something the last two years because the stuff I saw when he was in Aberdeen was pretty special.

He's certainly taken a step back this year unfortunately and will certainly be below Hernandez on this year's list.

I know you probably won't answer me, but I'm asking this in a civil way:), would you rank him after those 4? I do agree with you about his command and if he can harness it, then I believe he can be a special pitcher. If he can't command his pitches then you're right he would be better off in the bullpen.

[mikezpen]

If he can't command pitches I don't want him in the bullpen either. I like Hernandez a lot. But until he stops walking 4-5 guys per 9, he doesn't belong up here in any capacity because he won't perform adequately up here in any capacity.

[Tony-OH]

I know you probably won't answer me, but I'm asking this in a civil way:), would you rank him after those 4? I do agree with you about his command and if he can harness it, then I believe he can be a special pitcher. If he can't command his pitches then you're right he would be better off in the bullpen.

He's right there after them along with Bergesen, Britton, Noel and Penn (even though he's no longer a rookie). Bascom may also be included in that next tier but Hernandez would be at the top of the next tier most likely.

[Tony-OH]

1. I mentioned a lot more than stats in my post. I realize that a lot more goes into scouting and ranking prospects than just stats.

2. I made special mention in my post about Beato's stuff/velocity even at Aberdeen, never matching the advertised "mid 90's". What I saw of Beato at Aberdeen was a low 90's fastball and mechanics that in my, admittedly amateur opinion, were not free and easy. He looked look a guy that didn't get good extension when throwing the ball, almsot like he was muscling the ball to the plate. Again, stats aren't everything but his stats at Aberdeen certainly didn't equate to "special stuff". Now, it seems apparentl that physical problems have taken a further toll on his stuff. Sounds like he's into the upper 80's now. Hopefully he'll get healthy and we'll see what we've got.

The night I saw him in Aberdeen he was consistently 92-95 MPH with hard late breaking curve and flashed a decent change up. He did not have a lot of effort in his delivery in my opinion but his command was not there with his breaking stuff and he seemed to lose focus at times on the mound after something did not go good.

I was told he was still in the 91-93 range last year (I didn't see him) so I thought maybe he was taking something off in order to have better command. Now he's in the upper 80s and that's a bad trend, especially for a guy who probably needed the velocity to overcome some of the command issues.

I'm certainly not throwing in the towel on the guy, but he's certainly dropped out of the top ten and Hernandez has most likely put himself into it if he can finish off the season well.

[mikezpen]

RZNJ, I've see guys who "muscle the ball" and they seem to wind up w/arm problems. I think that Albers is one, I thought Chris Ray was. They're "all arm" it seems.I haven't seen Beato but he might be like that.

Isn't Bascom another guy who supposedly had big velocity and now is throwing well below that?

[orioole28]

If he can't command pitches I don't want him in the bullpen either. I like Hernandez a lot. But until he stops walking 4-5 guys per 9, he doesn't belong up here in any capacity because he won't perform adequately up here in any capacity.

As long as he has the ability to miss bats and has the ability to limited hits against him then he can perform at the next level. Right now the Eastern League is hitting .207 against him and he leads the EL in K's with 105. Here is a list of MLB pitchers who have command issue and performing in the big leagues. This is just to name a few, because the list is long.

Name          W L   IP    BB   BB/9   SO/9  SO   AVE   ERAO.Perez       6-5   103.1 60   5.23   7.75   89  .231  4.44A.Burnett     9-8   118.2 56   4.25   8.95  118  .266  5.23E. Volquez    11-3  110.2 54   4.39   9.43  116  .212  2.36M.Cain        5-7   126.1 53   3.78   8.62  121  .240  4.06J.Sanchez     8-5   111   53   4.30   9.32  115  .237  3.97D.Matsuzaka   9-1   82.1  52   5.68   7.65   70  .206  2.84C.Billingsley 8-8   109.1 50   4.12   9.47  115  .234  3.38

DHernandez line:

NAME           W L   IP    BB   BB/9   SO/9  SO   AVE   ERAD.Hernandez    5-1   93.1  48   4.63   [b][u]10.13[/u][/b] [u]105[/u][b]  [u].207[/u][/b]  [b]2.70[/b]

As you can see in bold his strengths will help him in the next level. Now, I know it would be much better if he cut done is walks and his success would be much higher, but to say he doesn't belong in any capacity in the majors is pretty strong words.

[WietersCorner]

orioole26 does Hernandez get many called strike 3 outs? I am curious to know if many of his Ks come off of batters swinging at balls out of the zone, which many major league batters would take. I am just worried that his BBs are going to inflate when he reaches the Majors.

[orioole28]

orioole26 does Hernandez get many called strike 3 outs? I am curious to know if many of his Ks come off of batters swinging at balls out of the zone, which many major league batters would take. I am just worried that his BBs are going to inflate when he reaches the Majors.

It appears to me that they are swinging but are not out of the zone, unfortunately. If so, his K's would be much higher. He does get some looking, but I wish he would get more swing out of the zone. BowieMike would probably have a better answer. He's probably seen him pitch more than I have. I listen to all his games and it appears that the batter are swinging and missing in the zone.

[bassgtrst]

Another great outing for David tonight:

IP H R ER BB K HR ERA

6.0 3 1 1 3 7 0 2.63

Too bad the Bowie bats couldn't get anything going for him. Its like a Minor League version of a Guthrie outing.

[BowieMike]

It appears to me that they are swinging but are not out of the zone, unfortunately. If so, his K's would be much higher. He does get some looking, but I wish he would get more swing out of the zone. BowieMike would probably have a better answer. He's probably seen him pitch more than I have. I listen to all his games and it appears that the batter are swinging and missing in the zone.

Right now, off the top of my head, I'd say that the majority of his strikeouts tend be swinging. He's got such great life on his pitches that when he's around the strike zone, batters will take their hacks and ultimately come up missing. But that's the thing, he's got to be around the strike zone for that to happen.

[Mike B]

This guy goes under the radar so much on this website. I honestly think he's a front of the rotation starter.

In looking at his stats the thing that jumps out are thee 54 walks in 107 IP That is a little to high. The BB to IP usually goes up when a pitcher is promoted. All his other stats are terrific.

[orioole28]

In looking at his stats the thing that jumps out are thee 54 walks in 107 IP That is a little to high. The BB to IP usually goes up when a pitcher is promoted. All his other stats are terrific.

I don't want to be picky but I also don't want to tack more walk they he has. As he already has enough! But he has 51 walks.