Fangraphs: Missing Fans

[weams]

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/two-million-baseball-fans-are-missing/

Quote

Rob Manfred, MLB owners, players: we have a problem. Some of your ticket buyers are missing. In fact, nearly two million of them.

As we approach the official beginning of summer and the midpoint of the baseball season, attendance is down by about 2,000 per game, or 6.7%, relative to a year ago.

MLB attendance has generally and gradually been declining since its peak of 79.48 million fans in 2007. That was 32,696 per contest. The average per-game figure fell below 30,000 last year for the first time since 2003.

Of course, this year’s numbers were deflated early in the season, when April brought brutally cold weather to much of the country. Through the first two-plus weeks of the campaign, baseball was drawing about 2,700 fewer fans per game — or about 8.9% compared to the previous April, as noted by Jeff Passan.

So, for a while, it was unclear how much the unseasonable temperatures were responsible for the decline. Now, however, the weather has warmed in most places. What has happened in the two months since the frigid start to the season? The league is still failing to keep pace with last year. Over the last two months, from April 16 to June 14, MLB attendance is still off 2017’s pace by 6.1%, or a total of 1,376,770. The decline isn’t all weather related.

Said one anonymous league official to Passan in his April 16 piece, “The tanking scares me.”

Perhaps it should. Perhaps we are seeing its consequences in action.

On Thursday, this scribe wrote about how the Blue Jays, who had hoped to thread the needle and capture a Wild Card berth this season, ought to sell. They were one of the few teams in the AL — along with the Angels, Mariners, and Twins — that entered the season in something of a middle tier between the super teams and clear non-contenders.

...
 
Well, the Blue Jays now have less than 2% odds of making the postseason. In fact, only six AL teams have double-digit odds of making the postseason as this contributor noted in the aforementioned piece. Four of them — the Astros, Indians, Red Sox, and Yankees — have a 97% chance or better of reaching the postseason. The other nine teams have a 5% probability or worse. It’s seems unlikely that we’re going to have many dramatic postseason races. The AL East crown? Sure. But beyond that? Even the second Wild Card spot might not facilitate much competition with Shohei Ohtani’s status in doubt.

As I noted in the Blue Jays piece, one year ago to the day, only one team — the Astros — had a 90% chance of reaching the postseason. Ten AL teams had a double-digit probability or better. Again, this season it’s six.

Two years ago at roughly this same point in the season, 12 teams had double-digit probabilities, eight had a 30% or better chance. Three years ago, 10 teams had a 20% playoff probability or better in the AL, and eight teams, over half the league, had a 35% or greater chance. Four years ago, 10 teams also had a 20% or better chance of the reaching the postseason.

We might be seeing the effects of this age of Super Teams and Tankers in the American League standings. While MLB attendance is down 6.7% as a whole, attendance is down 9.7% in the Have-and-Have Not American League.

 

[ScGO's]

Wouldn't a salary cap be the best replacement for the bajillion rules being made to give the appearance of fair competition?  I can't even follow all of the luxury tax, draft compensation, draft slot pool, international spending, revenue sharing rules any more.  Its like putting bandaids and elmers glue into the crack of a damn and expecting it to hold.  Its muddling it all up in the name of harboring Greed.  That greed is equally shared by the owners, players, and MLB in my opinion. 

I ain't no commie, but when it comes to sports, to protect the integrity of the game, there should be equal rules of competition and spending.  Attendance is down in the MLB, but participation in youth baseball is down too.  With all the money they make, not enough is being done to inject the spirit of baseball back into our communities.  How long until  baseball is destroyed in the name of profit?

If MLB falters, do you think it could be replaced by a league that promotes more integrity?  Watch the College World Series this week and think about how MLB should be run, or what could replace MLB if it continues to tank.

[weams]

Caps don't work. They just pad the Billionaires. 

Redistribution in a closed system does. And A floor would help. 

 

[weams]

1 minute ago, birdwatcher55 said:

 It's worked well for the NFL.

How so? 

[ScGO's]

1 minute ago, birdwatcher55 said:

Good post. Socialism is good in this case. It's worked well for the NFL.

Exactly, it only works well in a vacuum in my opinion.  On a broader scope, equal is not always fair, and fair is not always equal, but in sports, wouldn't it make sense to put everyone on the same game board with the same rules, and the winners will be those that use the best strategies, organizations, and methods within those rules and limitations?

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Wouldn't a salary cap be the best replacement for the bajillion rules being made to give the appearance of fair competition?  I can't even follow all of the luxury tax, draft compensation, draft slot pool, international spending, revenue sharing rules any more.  Its like putting bandaids and elmers glue into the crack of a damn and expecting it to hold.  Its muddling it all up in the name of harboring Greed.  That greed is equally shared by the owners, players, and MLB in my opinion. 

I ain't no commie, but when it comes to sports, to protect the integrity of the game, there should be equal rules of competition and spending.  Attendance is down in the MLB, but participation in youth baseball is down too.  With all the money they make, not enough is being done to inject the spirit of baseball back into our communities.  How long until  baseball is destroyed in the name of profit?

If MLB falters, do you think it could be replaced by a league that promotes more integrity?  Watch the College World Series this week and think about how MLB should be run, or what could replace MLB if it continues to tank.

First off the present unbalance between good and bad teams is a new phenomenon and I don't think drastic actions should be taken at this early stage.

Secondly how has a hardish cap helped say the NBA and NFL with their quality?  How many years in a row has the finals been the same?  And the NFL, the Browns and the Patriots they've had similar levels of success right?

The main thing a hard cap will do is increase the share of profits the owners get.

[ScGO's]

3 minutes ago, weams said:

Caps don't work. They just pad the Billionaires. 

Redistribution in a closed system does. And A floor would help. 

 

That is my only fear with a salary cap.  I don't want to cater to the billionaires at all.  It would be extreme, but possible, if communities started calling for a Green Bay Packers form of ownership to combat this.  Extra revenues could be funneled into our desperately broke municipalities. 

[atomic]

Baseball is a dying sport. Younger generations find it boring.   Kids aren't playing little league anymore.   No games on free TV makes sure inner city kids couldnt care less about it.  People watching less sports In general. 

I mentioned before peak salary has been reached.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, atomic said:

Baseball is a dying sport. Younger generations find it boring.   Kids aren't playing little league anymore.   No games on free TV makes sure inner city kids couldnt care less about it.  People watching less sports In general. 

I mentioned before peak salary has been reached.   

That would explain the record profits last year.

I don't get your inner city kids comment?  Could you explain in more detail?

[atomic]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That would explain the record profits last year.

I don't get your inner city kids comment?  Could you explain in more detail?

Poor kids families can't afford 100 dollars a month for cable.  So they never watch baseball.   Every football game for local TV is on free TV.   If you haven't noticed percent of African Americans on teams is going down.   

 

Also most of the profits of baseball is charging people for a baseball channel they never watch. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, atomic said:

Poor kids families can't afford 100 dollars a month for cable.  So they never watch baseball.   Every football game for local TV is on free TV.   If you haven't noticed percent of African Americans on teams is going down.   

 

Also most of the profits of baseball is charging people for a baseball channel they never watch. 

And how is that an inner city problem and not an overall problem for the lower economic class?

You think folks in the rural deep south have 100 bucks a month for cable?

If you haven't noticed the percent of American players on teams that don't come from a travel team background is going down.

[weams]

38 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

That is my only fear with a salary cap.  I don't want to cater to the billionaires at all.  It would be extreme, but possible, if communities started calling for a Green Bay Packers form of ownership to combat this.  Extra revenues could be funneled into our desperately broke municipalities. 

Try taking the franchise from those rich folks. No. A cap does not work. Make the player's shareholders. Give them ownership stakes. 

[MongoBoy]

34 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

 Extra revenues could be funneled into our desperately broke municipalities. 

Municipalities? Broke? Where I live they are paving 2 streets. Problem is, they were paved just 2 years ago. We are just a small place. They have a work force of about 30 guys. What do we need 30 guys for? Their 'Supervisor' is constantly on the phone running his landscape business. We have 2 fulltime women that work in the village office. What do they do? Count the property tax checks and water bill checks that come in once a year. The Code Enforcement officer get full time pay for being there 3-4 days a week. All he does is drive around looking for things to bother people about. Broke? Of course their broke. They spend money they don't need to.

[Moose Milligan]

I just think that people would rather watch games from the comfort of their own homes these days.  I know I actually would.  180 bucks out the window today for tickets today.  Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to spend time with Dad and this is what he wanted to do.  

But honestly, I have no desire to go to Camden Yards anymore.  I must have been to easily over 100 games.  It's a beautiful park, I've soaked it all in.  Seen awesome things happen there.  But I just don't feel like putting forth the effort to go anymore.  Same with a closer team, the Nats.  No desire to go down there.  Same with the Redskins.

I've got a 65 inch tv with a great picture.  I can make my own food or get something delivered.  I don't have to dedicate a giant chunk of a day to commuting to a stadium.  

Why would I want to go OPACY again?

[Morgan423]

3 hours ago, weams said:

Four of them — the Astros, Indians, Red Sox, and Yankees — have a 97% chance or better of reaching the postseason. The other nine teams have a 5% probability or worse. 

Don't forget about our .000000002% chance when writing your articles.  Why, it could be enough to swing your entire conclusion!