Olney and Ravech: O's are hemorrhaging Machado's trade value

[24fps]

1 hour ago, nadecir said:

When you start the season with 3 Rule V players and some non-roster invitees counted on to make significant contributions, a team is in trouble.  When has an MLB team ever competed successfully with 3 Rule V players on the roster at one time?  It didn't take much foresight to see the Orioles were not competing this season.

It doesn't matter one bit what the Orioles want for Machado.  What matters is what teams are willing to give up for him.  The Orioles had at least 8 offers for Machado this offseason.  I guarantee you the best one was significantly better than a compensatory draft pick.  The market for Machado is the market, no matter what the Orioles front office wants for him.

During the offseason, Machado was worth more to an acquiring team than he is now.  Machado would have been on the roster for the entire season, and the acquiring team would get a compensatory draft pick when he left via free agency.  Teams who made offers for Machado could add additional value to their trade packages given these two benefits versus acquiring him during the season.

What fans don't get nowadays is how much analytics rule the baseball world.  We live in an era of defensive shifts tailored to individual batter's historical tendencies, and these shifts can even change based on the count on a hitter.   Pitchers know how batter's respond to every pitch they've seen, including speed, spin and drop rates.  Baseball free agents are evaluated objectively by their value added in all phases of the game versus their contract demands and taking in mind both aging curves for similar players and payroll luxury tax implications  Top prospects are highly valued because they can be extreme bargains during the years they are under cost control.   

Olney and Ravech are correct, Machado value goes down every single game he plays to an acquiring team.  Baseball front offices are valuing Machado objectively based on the number of wins he can provide over the remaining course of the seasons versus the remaining salary he has left this year.

Good MLB teams today rely on analytics today to make any major decision with their team.  Ignoring analytics, and making emotional organizational moves like over paying in free agency or overpaying to acquire a player in trade get an MLB GM an express ticket out of baseball and a tee time on the golf course with Bill Bavasi.

I'm sorry, but it takes a buyer and a seller to make a market and that's a fact of life, so it matters very much what the Orioles' front office wants for any player under its control.  Do I think the O's have made a mistake waiting this long?  Perhaps, it depends on what they turned down and what and how they calculated Manny's value to the team as a player thus far during the season.  As is said in an earlier post, I don't know the specifics of any offer made during the off season, but I do know It's not just about playing baseball, it's also about making money as a business and that's something that's too often is ignored in conversations like this.  Personally I agree with your assessment of the Orioles' prospects going into the season and have said so many times.

Yes analytics play an increasingly important role in evaluating baseball players but to think they have completely removed emotion from the process, then please explain the success of Scott Boras and his ilk.  And if you think analytics can remove chance from the equation, ask the Dodgers if they agree.  And if you think you can get anything other than a lowball offer in a negotiation where you tell the other side you won't walk away, then give Bill my best and I hope you have better luck getting an extra stroke or two off him on the first tee.

I'm open to the argument that the conversations DD might be having with other teams could make waiting longer worthwhile, but there's really nothing I can see from the outside that would support that notion otherwise.  I hope we see Manny traded sooner than later at this point.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, joelala said:

Because of all the absolute studs we have in the minors

This is a joke right?

[joelala]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

The ones all the "experts" rate below the studs the other teams have in the minors?

Ha yup.  They just all hate the Orioles.  Its a conspiracy.

[joelala]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

This is a joke right?

yes.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, joelala said:

yes.

K, whew.  

[Barnaby Graves]

Yes guys he is joking.

I doubt anyone in our minor league system can even read or write let alone play baseball.

[joelala]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

K, whew.  

Ryan "The Savior" Mckenna

[joelala]

Just now, Barnaby Graves said:

Yes guys he is joking.

I doubt anyone in our minor league system can even read or write let alone play baseball.

Lowther looks like he can read.

[Moose Milligan]

Austin "Willie Mays" Hays

[Barnaby Graves]

Cedric "successfully ate my breakfast without stabbing myself in the eye with a fork and also I walked to my car and got inside without tripping and breaking my ribs or slamming the door on my hand" Mullins

[clapdiddy]

We make light of the farm system, but there are some good prospects down there.   Unfortunately, none of them are ready to help the Orioles yet.   I agree with what's been said about the need for a "stud" player.   We haven't been in the position to draft that "stud" since Machado.   Here's to 2018! 

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

We make light of the farm system, but there are some good prospects down there.   Unfortunately, none of them are ready to help the Orioles yet.   I agree with what's been said about the need for a "stud" player.   We haven't been in the position to draft that "stud" since Machado.   Here's to 2018! 

Dunno.  If I got drafted by the Orioles I'd want to take some time to reflect if playing baseball is a career path that's right for me.

That's a joke...sort of.

[joelala]

8 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

We make light of the farm system, but there are some good prospects down there.   Unfortunately, none of them are ready to help the Orioles yet.   I agree with what's been said about the need for a "stud" player.   We haven't been in the position to draft that "stud" since Machado.   Here's to 2018! 

I suppose some of the guys down there could be helpful, I should be more optimistic, but that's pretty hard. But yes, the high draft picks for the next 8 or so years (only half joking) should give us a few studs.  And hopefully we'll trade Machado and get at least one potential stud.

[joelala]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Dunno.  If I got drafted by the Orioles I'd want to take some time to reflect if playing baseball is a career path that's right for me.

That's a joke...sort of.

HAHA. "In a surprise turn of events, Orioles first round selection Grasyon Rodriguez has announced his retirement"

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, joelala said:

HAHA. "In a surprise turn of events, Orioles first round selection Grasyon Rodriguez has announced his retirement"

If a player were to do that, do they get to keep all of the signing bonus?