Is Zach Britton worth a qualifying offer?

[atomic]

It is ridiculous to even consider.   No reliever is worth 18 million a year.   And certainly would not ever give it to a guy who has been injured and ineffective two years straight. What is the highest current annual salary for a relief pitcher? 

 

[InsideCoroner]

2 hours ago, atomic said:

It is ridiculous to even consider.   No reliever is worth 18 million a year.   And certainly would not ever give it to a guy who has been injured and ineffective two years straight. What is the highest current annual salary for a relief pitcher? 

 

Melancon of the Giants makes 20 million. Chapman is second at 17.2M.

[UpstateNYfan]

Some wise sage here once said you don't put over 10% of your player budget on a closer if there is no way you are going to contend.

[Aristotelian]

Not worth the risk. Even if he rebuilds his value, best case scenario we get a B prospect back. That's not worth $18M even in the best case scenario. Most likely outcome is flushing $18m down the toilet.

[Tx Oriole]

10 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

I realize a lot of folks here, and all across Orioles-related platforms want the team to sell, and I am in that group.  We missed the boat last year trading Britton, probably telling ourselves that we could get a better package for Britton once he proved himself healthy again, or thinking that he would lead the bullpen on another playoff charge.  

Well, neither of those have happened.  Colin Moran, who was rumored to be a central piece in the rumored deal to the Astros, has a .780 OPS and his .349 OBP- the latter of which would've been 2nd on the Orioles next to Machado, regardless of qualifying at-bats.  

So the Orioles are at another crossroads with Britton- he's clearly struggled, and just recently blew a save by giving up a home run to a left-hander- the second one he's ever given up.  The way I see it, here are our options: 

1.) A trade before either the non-waiver or waiver deadlines.  Britton probably won't get us a Moran-level prospect at this point, unless we eat most of the money.  Even then, I don't sed a package deal here. Note, I'm being generous here, I don't think a Moran-type prospect is going to be dealt by a team for Britton at this point unless he has a lights-out July. 

2.) Offer him the qualifying offer, meaning Britton either takes a one year, $17.4 million offer to stay in Baltimore for another season, or he departs via FA, we get a competitive balance pick that depends on the value of the contract he receives from another team.  

So the Orioles have to decide if the prospect they will get from a Britton deal this summer is better than what they could draft with a competitive balance pick, or worth the haul a healthy Britton could be worth next year.  Also, they have to decide how they value Britton, and that it's a huge risk to give a reliever that much money.  

Put on your GM shoes now- if you were the GM, do you consider holding Zach Britton and offering him the QO if you don't find a good package this summer?  

No way would I make an offer to Zach. 

[Aglets]

If this was a serious question..............

The serious answer is no.    Without hesitation.

Maybe if you can show Zach is one of the best relievers in the entire game you'd start to think about it..............but it's obvious he's not that guy.    Oh, and if you're not a 50 win team maybe you care about investing a lot in your bullpen..........but we are.........we got other fish to fry.

[webbrick2010]

People seem to forget that Britton was suffering from a sore shoulder last year

I believe his days as a shut down closer are done

He'll be very lucky to get a 1/5 deal next year assuming he remains ineffective this year.

[Chromehill]

I think Britton is turning into the classic closer that was great for 3 to 4 years and then fades away.  Generally they rely on a dominate pitch that loses its effectiveness or get injured.  No way should they offer Britton a QO, let him walk.  Best case is he pitches effectively the next few weeks and his traded for something.  Should have been traded last July.  With Pete, one never knows what is going to happen.

[ScGO's]

10 hours ago, ThomasTomasz said:

So the Orioles have to decide if the prospect they will get from a Britton deal this summer is better than what they could draft with a competitive balance pick, or worth the haul a healthy Britton could be worth next year.  Also, they have to decide how they value Britton, and that it's a huge risk to give a reliever that much money.  

If the O's resign Britton with QO, that is 17 mil that we could have spent on much wiser future investments in scouting, drafting, player development, intl signs, etc.

Rolling the dice with 17 mil in hopes we get a better prospect next year?

Sometimes in business, you lose, and you lose even more when you refuse to believe you lost.  The O's have to walk away from this one.  Trade him for something, even if its a C prospect.  We lost out on Britton last year. Probably should have traded him after the 2016 season to maximize the return.  

[Aristotelian]

5 hours ago, InsideCoroner said:

Melancon of the Giants makes 20 million. Chapman is second at 17.2M.

Melancon is the case in point of why not to do a QO. 

I think Jones is the better candidate for QO. I think he could actually produce close to $18M in RF.

[TouchemAll]

NOO...

[jamalshw]

Unless his velocity ticks up a bit immediately and he pitches lights out the rest of the way they won't/shouldn't offer the QO. If, however, he does go on a crazy scoreless streaky with filthy stuff the rest of the way, I could see it. That said, I would be completely shocked to see that happen. (Since I don't like absolutes, I'm going to say there's a 0.5% chance of the above happening).

[24fps]

3 hours ago, Chromehill said:

I think Britton is turning into the classic closer that was great for 3 to 4 years and then fades away.  Generally they rely on a dominate pitch that loses its effectiveness or get injured.  No way should they offer Britton a QO, let him walk.  Best case is he pitches effectively the next few weeks and his traded for something.  Should have been traded last July.  With Pete, one never knows what is going to happen.

They should have traded Britton before the 2016 season.  He was at peak value and that off season saw a couple of truly stupid trades for relievers.  To me, that's been the Orioles' biggest strategic mistake after the CD contract.

[Camden_yardbird]

Yes.  And here is why.  The Orioles should go into a proper rebuild and that means they should be dropping a lot of salary.  If you have young players playing on league minimum contract next year then taking an $17 million dollar chance that Britton regains his form is perfectly reasonable.  You shouldn't be spending that money elsewhere do why not take the gamble.

[Oriol3s]

Just now, Camden_yardbird said:

Yes.  And here is why.  The Orioles should go into a proper rebuild and that means they should be dropping a lot of salary.  If you have young players playing on league minimum contract next year then taking an $17 million dollar chance that Britton regains his form is perfectly reasonable.  You shouldn't be spending that money elsewhere do why not take the gamble.

Because they could probably resign him for $10M or less and save at least $7M in the process.

If he doesn't regain his dominant form this year, I don't see any club giving him more than that on a 1-year deal, and Britton would surely try to do a 1-year contract to rebuild value.