How long will this take?

[Frobby]

I heard a quote from DD that the rebuild will extend through 2019 and “maybe” into 2020.     But I wonder if it’s realistic for this franchise to rebuild that fast.    If you think about it, the last Orioles rebuild really started when MacPhail traded Bedard and Tejada away in the 2007-08 offseason.    That led to four more seasons of losing and we were selling pieces that entire time.   Factor in that we don’t have any pieces to sell that are as in demand as Bedard was, and few in the Tejada range.    

The other thing is, much depends on how well you do with your high draft picks, and whether you can hit  a home run with any of your lower picks.    We made a great pick in Manny, but I think one reason we fell short of winning a championship is we didn’t really hit any other home runs with our picks.   And, of course, we were severely handicapped by ignoring the source of 25-30% of all players. Even if we get back in that market, it probably takes several years before we start getting our full share of the talent there.    

Realistically, I think we may not see a winning ball club until 2023 or later.   

[Hank Scorpio]

Due to all the transgressions laid out so eloquently by Paul previously, I'd say a lot longer than we'd all like to see. Any real success prior to 2022-23 would surprise me. 

The close to MLB talent in the organization isn't going to vault them into any stratosphere. They need to establish waves and waves of it and do it better than the teams in the division that already do a hell of a good job. 

Don't hold your breath.

[baltimoreO's22]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I heard a quote from DD that the rebuild will extend through 2019 and “maybe” into 2020.     But I wonder if it’s realistic for this franchise to rebuild that fast.    If you think about it, the last Orioles rebuild really started when MacPhail traded Bedard and Tejada away in the 2007-08 offseason.    That led to four more seasons of losing and we were selling pieces that entire time.   Factor in that we don’t have any pieces to sell that are as in demand as Bedard was, and few in the Tejada range.    

The other thing is, much depends on how well you do with your high draft picks, and whether you can hit  a home run with any of your lower picks.    We made a great pick in Manny, but I think one reason we fell short of winning a championship is we didn’t really hit any other home runs with our picks.   And, of course, we were severely handicapped by ignoring the source of 25-30% of all players. Even if we get back in that market, it probably takes several years before we start getting our full share of the talent there.    

Realistically, I think we may not see a winning ball club until 2023 or later.   

I think that is a pretty realistic time frame as well, which is why I hope we take Bobby Witt Jr with the first pick (pending we have it) over the college bats that will be out there. It's also why I hope that we sell off any valuable assets that we have now for prospects and completely tank the next couple of years. If we do this rebuild properly, when 2023 comes around, we should have a lot of really good young prospects. 

[nadecir]

Depressing but 2023 seems about right to me.  You neglected to mention the boat anchor contract of Chris Davis, which will slow the rebuild too.

This is a reasonable question to ponder. Would you rather be the Orioles as we stand right now, or a brand new franchise just coming into the league in 2019?

[webbrick2010]

Don't presently have a management team that can ever return to a winning record.

Until that happens this is a dead franchise

[canonfaz]

If they are serious about spending internationally, maybe we can cut into that timeline some. It will take time to get up to speed on the international front, but they can at least start pumping money and resources into it (players and scouts).

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, nadecir said:

Depressing but 2023 seems about right to me.  You neglected to mention the boat anchor contract of Chris Davis, which will slow the rebuild too.

I don’t think the Davis contract has to slow down the rebuild.   Atlanta and Philly are way below average in payroll and yet they’re competing.   You could throw a Davis-sized salary on top of their payrolls and you’d still be way below the O’s payroll of the last 2-3 years.   

[glenn__davis]

I understand the reasoning behind the question, but it's simply an impossible question to answer.

It's baseball.  Who knows.  It's very difficult to predict on a year-to-year basis.  I've brought this up many times, but I remember prior to the 2012 season posters saying that this team was AT MINIMUM 5 years away from being competitive.  No one, and I mean no one foresaw 3 playoff berths in 5 years at that point.  

Similarly, no one saw a collapse quite of this magnitude either.  

I wouldn't be stunned if it took until 2023.  I also wouldn't be stunned if next year the young guys help improve the defense, Schoop, Mancini and Cobb have significant bounceback years, and the team hovers around .500 and flirts with contention.  In baseball, youneverknow.

[glenn__davis]

4 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

If they are serious about spending internationally, maybe we can cut into that timeline some. It will take time to get up to speed on the international front, but they can at least start pumping money and resources into it (players and scouts).

Any increase in international activity probably wouldn't provide dividends at the ML level for at least another 4-5 years.  You figure even if they immediately ramped things up they wouldn't make any significant signings until next year's period, July 2019.  Most of those guys are going to be young teenagers who need 4-5 years in the system, so then you'd be looking at around 2023 or so for them to even start to make an impact.

I'm enthusiastic about them talking about taking the international game more seriously, but even if they were to fully jump all in now (which I don't expect) I still would think it would be at least a half a decade before it yielded anything significant.

[nadecir]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think the Davis contract has to slow down the rebuild.   Atlanta and Philly are way below average in payroll and yet they’re competing.   You could throw a Davis-sized salary on top of their payrolls and you’d still be way below the O’s payroll of the last 2-3 years.   

I think you are being a bit naive as to what an additional $20+ million per year could do in fixing the fundamental problems this organization has over the next few years.  International spending, analytics, and scouting are just a few places that $20+ million could go to begin to solve big problems with the Orioles.  Heck, you could use money to pay off debt and it would be a better use of money.

An additional $20+ million spent in the right places over the next few years makes the Orioles a winning organization faster.  Wasting money certainly doesn't help. 

[clapdiddy]

I think it could be 2021, but a lot will have to go right for that to happen.   We're going to have to hit on every trade, and I think we all know that's likely not going to happen.  

We also really need to nail the next two drafts.   We're going to have high picks in each round and really need to add some serious talent.   Houston built a lot through the draft and we'll need to emulate that. 

We'll also need to build an international presence.   This will be a long process, but we need to be in a position to bid on some of the more talented international players.   

I agree with Hank above.   I think we could see improvement in 2021, but ultimately, 2022 is more realistic to see real change.  

[Moose Milligan]

Yeah, I'm not putting any solid predictions forth.  It'll happen when it happens.

IIRC 2012 was a surprise year.  

[esmd]

Too much is in question right now.  If they hit on Diaz and another player from the Machado deal, Mancini rebound offensively, maybe a guy like Mountcastle comes up and pops at the plate, Harvey somehow can get through a season healthy and effective, etc.  Plus the future returns for Britton, Jones, etc.  Sisco still has potential, etc.

Clearly a lot has to go right to get back to being competitive quickly, but it's certainly not impossible.  And they may get to a point in 2020 where they can be in contention and go out and trade for some help, or maybe sign some FAs after 2020.  Or they could lose 100 games the next 3 seasons.  Just too hard to prognosticate one way or the other right now.

[esmd]

22 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Don't presently have a management team that can ever return to a winning record.

Until that happens this is a dead franchise

Yet somehow they managed 3 playoff appearances and the most wins in the AL from 2012 through 2016.

[big_sparxx]

The question for me is the pitching. It's what will make everything more viable. Do we see any potential TOR worthy candidates coming through in the bear future?