How long will this take?

[pastorfan]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I heard a quote from DD that the rebuild will extend through 2019 and “maybe” into 2020.     But I wonder if it’s realistic for this franchise to rebuild that fast.    If you think about it, the last Orioles rebuild really started when MacPhail traded Bedard and Tejada away in the 2007-08 offseason.    That led to four more seasons of losing and we were selling pieces that entire time.   Factor in that we don’t have any pieces to sell that are as in demand as Bedard was, and few in the Tejada range.    

The other thing is, much depends on how well you do with your high draft picks, and whether you can hit  a home run with any of your lower picks.    We made a great pick in Manny, but I think one reason we fell short of winning a championship is we didn’t really hit any other home runs with our picks.   And, of course, we were severely handicapped by ignoring the source of 25-30% of all players. Even if we get back in that market, it probably takes several years before we start getting our full share of the talent there.    

Realistically, I think we may not see a winning ball club until 2023 or later.   

I agree. Boston might begin to decline and have some bad contracts (Price, for example) around 2022 and NY will have to give huge contracts to guys like Judge and Sanchez, though they should still be quite good. If we draft well, trade well, and hit the international market I think 2023 is about right. Hopefully we still have a fan base!

[SteveA]

56 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

If they are serious about spending internationally, maybe we can cut into that timeline some. It will take time to get up to speed on the international front, but they can at least start pumping money and resources into it (players and scouts).

How does international spending g speed up the timeline?  It has great long-term effects but any 16 year old Dominican we sign now will not be making an impact in 2022.

[wildcard]

If the O's keep their good players and build around  them it will take less time then if they trade them.   There are some exceptions.  If someone offers a  lot more value then a current player can produce then they have to trade him.  

The O's need to improve their defense especially at SS and 3B.   Its the backbone of a good defensive team.  Next after that is catcher.  They have the outfielders in the system to improve the outfield defense.  Mullins, McKenna, Hays, and Diaz.

[jtschrei]

Very hard to predict when the Os will return to winning baseball. The minors don’t seem stocked with guys ready to come up and win ML games. But you just never know how good these guys  are until they get to baltimore. I’m hopeful for 2020 and 2021

[foxfield]

Lets not get too far ahead here.  We have admitted we are rebuilding and said we are going to do things differently...or better going forward.  That is positive and I could see paths that could make this team competitive by 2020.  But even though trading Manny is the official start of the rebuild, to me it doesn't get real until ownership places someone in command and gives them the authority too do this.  Until that happens, my magic 8 ball says.

Ask again later!

[TonySoprano]

Houston severely tanked 3 years in a row, and they still had to wait another 2 years for the playoffs.

Orioles fans waiting on rebuild 

[canonfaz]

8 minutes ago, SteveA said:

How does international spending g speed up the timeline?  It has great long-term effects but any 16 year old Dominican we sign now will not be making an impact in 2022.

I'm just saying spending internationally will shorten the timeline, as opposed to not spending internationally at all.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

I'm just saying spending internationally will shorten the timeline, as opposed to not spending internationally at all.

More than shortening the timeline, I think it will improve the outcome of the rebuild.    In other words, it might take 4-5 years either way, but once done we could have something better and more sustainable than we had in this last iteration 2012-16.

[Richmond Bird 9]

My guess is the 2019 could be referring to Trumbo/Schoop/O'Day and Cashner (opt) could all be F/A after 2019. IF still on the team would all be trade names to trade at the deadline.

[Just Regular]

30 minutes ago, SteveA said:

How does international spending g speed up the timeline?  It has great long-term effects but any 16 year old Dominican we sign now will not be making an impact in 2022.

Victor Victor Mesa could - my guesstimate is it'd be like cloning Yusniel Diaz in terms of overall quality and timeline.

I had been wondering in the Machado trade run-up whether a stand could be made at the Schoop/Gausman service time class and the substance of that return tells me that is no.  So I'm eager for Britton to get done so Schoop and Gausman get some percolation time before July 31st.

I haven't yet abandoned all hope for April 2020.  The next line of retreat is Bundy, the high-minors bats, and Britton/Schoop/Gausman trade hauls.  I can see Cobb and Akin as livable rotation fodder then, and hope for one thing good out of the A ball bunch by then.  Scott, Givens, Harvey and Pop might all be effective 60-inning guys for that team, though in Givens's case we really need to back off his workload if we want to preserve him as an asset for the future.

That team will need to buy an expensive infielder or two, but Schoop or someone of his caliber should be easily affordable given how many pre-arb salaries will be on the roster then.

[SteveA]

30 minutes ago, canonfaz said:

I'm just saying spending internationally will shorten the timeline, as opposed to not spending internationally at all.

And I basically disagree.   We are talking about can it be done sooner than 2022-23.   And basically any 16 year old kid we sign won't have an impact before then.   So unless you are talking about spending big on some 23 year old Cuban defector, spending internationally won't help us get better any sooner.   It will just help us be better than we otherwise would be in the middle of the 2020s.   It's a longterm process.

[Aristotelian]

Davis is such a huge liability. I don't see this happening overnight. 2021 may be ambitious.

[pastorfan]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

How does international spending g speed up the timeline?  It has great long-term effects but any 16 year old Dominican we sign now will not be making an impact in 2022.

BEcause you could actually trade the guy who you sign at 16 when he is a couple years older and you are ready to contend. 

[Santandah]

It may not take quite as long as the last bounce back. 

When Adam Jones was called up in 2008, the O's had exactly one position player on the team that would become a regular during the road back to respectability: Nick Markakis. 

Matt Weiters was in the pipeline, as were Tillman and Britton. Jeremie Guthrie was here, and Jim Johnson was on the cusp. Other than that, Matt Albers was the only guy on the 40-man roster that would even have a role in the turnaround.

Compare that to where the team is now.

We've got reasonable prospects at every outfield position, DH, SS, Catcher. There is a solid pipeline of minor league arms that should be able to fill out a respectable bullpen. And believe it or not, the rotation should be stable for the next 2-3 years, with some really good looking prospects 2-3 years away. 

We don't yet know what the return for Zach will be. Nor do we know whether Schoop will stick around or be traded for some more minor league talent. 

We're not stocked with top top prospects, but we should have a top 2 pick in the draft this year, more high picks next year. And the team has shown an aptitude for finding discarded and undervalued talent from other teams in the past to fill in needs. 

It's not where any of us want to be, but I think the team is at least in a position to be back and competitive within three years. 

 

[Sir_Loin]

The master plan is to be competitive in 2020, but the FO thinks they can really be at the top of the division in 2021...