How long will this take?

[Ohfan67]

2 minutes ago, Thato'sfan said:

Manny is a generational talent. That is true, we don't have another guy of his caliber. But we might have our next Markakis(DIaz). A solid future center fielder in Mullins. A future LEGIT impact bat in Mountcastle. Hyas could become an all star. Harvey or Hall might become the best starter we've developed in the past few decades.We have a bevy of mid/back-end high floor, low cewiling guys. We have many near MLB bullpen contributors. Sisco might become a plus offensive catcher. Oh and we will have a top pick next year and just drafted a pitcher with limitless potential in Grayson Rodriguez. If we extend/sign some sub-30 yr old imapct players we could be actual contenders in 3-4 years. If we are terrible for two more consecutive years, that would be two more top picks...the gravy on top. If international spending actually begins(which could start with Victor Victor Mesa) , the future of the organization looks to be very bright.

That’s a lot of might and if. None of those players are Wieters or Manny type prospects (and were drafted accordingly, etc). DD and the other leadership really hurt the team by investing first round picks in mediocre free agents and of course the lack of international spending yada yada. But that missing top rung of prospects is real. The Orioles system was overall worse, but Britton, Wieters, and Manny were all star products. A couple of career years from those kind of players can really impact the won-loss record. But I salute your optimism and am not totally dumping on the system, just saying comparing rankings does not tell the whole story, for sure. The system is better in many ways, but is lacking in top flight prospects. Think of the Orioles system as a trading partner. Many OH posters would be pretty unimpressed of the Orioles were going to trade to get players from the Oriole system. Players like Mountcasle would be rightfully seen as limited because of a gaping whole in their game. 

[Lucky_13]

3 hours ago, Sir_Loin said:

The master plan is to be competitive in 2020, but the FO thinks they can really be at the top of the division in 2021...

I'm not sure it's entirely impossible for them to a young .500ish club in 2020.  Most of their position prospects have ETA's of 2019 giving them a full year to adjust to MLB pitching. And a lot of the impact pitching prospects should be here by 2020-21, so they could have a young exciting team but this is assuming everything goes 100 percent right. I think we'll have a better idea once we know the returns for Britton, Brach, Jones, and possibly Schoop. 

[El Gordo]

WC 2019, book it! It's baseball man.

[weams]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

I heard a quote from DD that the rebuild will extend through 2019 and “maybe” into 2020.     But I wonder if it’s realistic for this franchise to rebuild that fast.    If you think about it, the last Orioles rebuild really started when MacPhail traded Bedard and Tejada away in the 2007-08 offseason.    That led to four more seasons of losing and we were selling pieces that entire time.   Factor in that we don’t have any pieces to sell that are as in demand as Bedard was, and few in the Tejada range.    

The other thing is, much depends on how well you do with your high draft picks, and whether you can hit  a home run with any of your lower picks.    We made a great pick in Manny, but I think one reason we fell short of winning a championship is we didn’t really hit any other home runs with our picks.   And, of course, we were severely handicapped by ignoring the source of 25-30% of all players. Even if we get back in that market, it probably takes several years before we start getting our full share of the talent there.    

Realistically, I think we may not see a winning ball club until 2023 or later.   

I expect a competitive club as quickly as the Phillies did it. 

[weams]

4 hours ago, Sir_Loin said:

The master plan is to be competitive in 2020, but the FO thinks they can really be at the top of the division in 2021...

A realistic way to address this would be to jettison all above league minimum players and build from youth immediately. Youth. Not 26 year olds. 

[weams]

59 minutes ago, Lucky_13 said:

I'm not sure it's entirely impossible for them to a young .500ish club in 2020.  Most of their position prospects have ETA's of 2019 giving them a full year to adjust to MLB pitching. And a lot of the impact pitching prospects should be here by 2020-21, so they could have a young exciting team but this is assuming everything goes 100 percent right. I think we'll have a better idea once we know the returns for Britton, Brach, Jones, and possibly Schoop. 

 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

Check out the Pirates right now. After trading 2 of their best players in the offseason, they've ripped off 10 in a row and are mildly in the hunt.. I would totally settle for something like that in the next 3 years. Surprising. 

[SteveA]

4 hours ago, MikeAD said:

Look at how quickly Houston did this.  Now I realize the Houston farm system was not in total shambles like ours has been but you can still do this quickly.  I think this rebuild could lead to a competitive team in 2020 for sure.  I think the 2019 season might even be one where we don't have to turn the TV off for all of August and September like almost every Orioles season over the past 25 years.  Just bring in a multitude of pitching prospects and hope for the best.  If the rebuild goes well and is done competently we will also have extra pieces to trade for a pitcher or another spot of need once everything comes together.  Houston Houston Houston.  

Houston had 6 straight losing seasons (with 3-4-5 being the worst).   We are about to have our 2nd unless we finish this season 53-8 or better.

So if we do it as "quickly" as Houston, we would have a winning record in 2023.

And in 2010, their 2nd straight losing season (which is where we are now), they already had a system that was chock full of international talent including a future MVP, and they had a future Cy Young winner in their farm system as well.   Maybe we have the Cy down in Frederick, but we don't have a system loaded with international talent.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

After thinking it through, here is my ideal scenario for position players and starting pitchers, with what we know right now, heading into 2020 as an upswing goal: 

C- Sisco

1B- Mountcastle/Maybe Mancini if he can bounce back

SS- TBD 

2B- Bannon/Schoop

3B- Bannon/Schoop (I would love it if Schoop could play 3rd. He's got the arm)

LF- Jones (signed to play COF for a few more years this off season)

CF- Mullins

RF Diaz

DH Mountcastle/Mancini if he can bounce back

 

Batting order: 

1. Mullins

2. Diaz

3. Schoop

4. Mountcastle

5. Jones

6. Sisco

7. Mancini

8. Bannon

9. Mystery SS

 

SP1- Bundy

SP2- Gausman

SP3- Cobb

SP4- Harvey/Aiken

SP5- Hall/Kremer

 

SS/3B (unless Schoop has interest in scooting to 3rd) is obviously a big hole at the moment and we could use more depth. I think we'd really need to get those right defensively more than anything.

With the Britton trade we will get more talent. Then perhaps we use our OF depth (if Austin Hays gets blocked, etc.) to address middle infield. This would be the fastest path and things would have to go well. But I don't think it's crazy and it's why I personally would prefer to keep/extend Jones/Schoop/Bundy/Gausman. They can bridge us to our next competitive teams. We can begin and continue our new frontier of international talent to supplement. We can be smart about not trading away our prospects during this time like we did for the past 5 years. 

This is what I'll personally be hoping for. Mix of young talent and veterans in 2020, focusing on starting to win games again. 

 

 

[Camden_yardbird]

Depends on the depth of their commitment.  Will they throw too money at international prospects?  Will they ship out guys with years of control for bigger prospect hauls?  Will they take high draft allocations and go over slot?

The deeper they take the rebuild commitment in short manner, the quicker they will climb out of it.

[foxfield]

I think the Orioles should trade Chris Davis to the Washington Redskins.

 

I think it could be a massive win win for everyone.  I'd try to get a draft pick back but that's just me.  He can play linebacker for the Redskins.  The NFL probably won't mind which drug he takes for his condition and if this can be done quickly, just maybe MLB won't realize that contracts in the NFL are not guarteed.

This has been your Oriole public service announcement for today.  We now continue with your regularly scheduled speculation.

[24fps]

6 hours ago, Sir_Loin said:

The master plan is to be competitive in 2020, but the FO thinks they can really be at the top of the division in 2021...

I hope they go for it.  I won't mind if they fall short as long as they don't start off peddling the 3-5 year nonsense.

[Sir_Loin]

4 hours ago, Thato'sfan said:

Manny is a generational talent. That is true, we don't have another guy of his caliber. But we might have our next Markakis(DIaz). A solid future center fielder in Mullins. A future LEGIT impact bat in Mountcastle. Hyas could become an all star. Harvey or Hall might become the best starter we've developed in the past few decades.We have a bevy of mid/back-end high floor, low cewiling guys. We have many near MLB bullpen contributors. Sisco might become a plus offensive catcher. Oh and we will have a top pick next year and just drafted a pitcher with limitless potential in Grayson Rodriguez. If we extend/sign some sub-30 yr old imapct players we could be actual contenders in 3-4 years. If we are terrible for two more consecutive years, that would be two more top picks...the gravy on top. If international spending actually begins(which could start with Victor Victor Mesa) , the future of the organization looks to be very bright.

A lot of mights in there. Just remember. The Calvary was supposed to lead our team back to contention... 

[sevastras]

12 hours ago, glenn__davis said:

Any increase in international activity probably wouldn't provide dividends at the ML level for at least another 4-5 years.  You figure even if they immediately ramped things up they wouldn't make any significant signings until next year's period, July 2019.  Most of those guys are going to be young teenagers who need 4-5 years in the system, so then you'd be looking at around 2023 or so for them to even start to make an impact.

I'm enthusiastic about them talking about taking the international game more seriously, but even if they were to fully jump all in now (which I don't expect) I still would think it would be at least a half a decade before it yielded anything significant.

This. Besides the occasional guy like Mesa(fingers crossed) they are all 16 to 18 at the oldest. Even Mesa is probably September call up of 2020 at the soonest. 

Mid you are talking good baseball, 2021 is my guess. Competing for a ring, 2023 at the earliest. The Os best pitcher in 2023 could be 15 or 16 right now or a 19 year old drafted this year. It is just so far out. 

[Thato'sfan]

2 hours ago, Sir_Loin said:

A lot of mights in there. Just remember. The Calvary was supposed to lead our team back to contention... 

Indeed...but every contending team needs things to play out in their favor. Also, many of the guys mentioned are pretty far along the system, reducing uncertainty about players. Of course, nothing is a guarantee in life.