Grade the Gausman Deal

[Hallas]

38 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

But doesn't that logic assume O'Day has no value as a player?  He doesn't this year, but next year, he likely will - whether it's as a player or as a tradable asset.

Sure, but I would only peg him for about 1/2 a win, so it's only going to affect the value by a couple million unless you think he's going to go back to putting up a 2.80 ERA  for a whole season.  Just on straight dollars-to-WAR, he's going to save ~7 million.  When you consider that the O's probably don't care about 0.5 wins from O'Day next year when we're going to suck anyway....

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

his last game was his only clear bad game.  His first game ended poorly, but he started with 5 innings of 1 run ball, and the 2 runners that scored in the 6th scored after he left the game.  The O's would love to get that out of a starter.  

I’d call that game mediocre.   Only lasted 5+ innings, allowed 9 baserunners, only struck out 2.    

[Ruzious]

40 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d call that game mediocre.   Only lasted 5+ innings, allowed 9 baserunners, only struck out 2.    

Right mediocre - not bad.  His last game was his only bad one.  

[Frobby]

Just now, Ruzious said:

Right mediocre - not bad.  His last game was his only bad one.  

Yes, I’d agree with that characterization.  

[Ruzious]

2 hours ago, Hallas said:

Sure, but I would only peg him for about 1/2 a win, so it's only going to affect the value by a couple million unless you think he's going to go back to putting up a 2.80 ERA  for a whole season.  Just on straight dollars-to-WAR, he's going to save ~7 million.  When you consider that the O's probably don't care about 0.5 wins from O'Day next year when we're going to suck anyway....

I'd point out that his value was the Greater of... his performance to his team or his trade value on the open market.  

[weams]

3 hours ago, Ruzious said:

But doesn't that logic assume O'Day has no value as a player?  He doesn't this year, but next year, he likely will - whether it's as a player or as a tradable asset.

He has much less value than his expense. 

[Ruzious]

1 minute ago, weams said:

He has much less value than his expense. 

We've already accounted for the expense part - which is only for 1 year,  but if he's healthy next season, there's no reason he can't have significant value in that one year.    

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

We've already accounted for the expense part - which is only for 1 year,  but if he's healthy next season, there's no reason he can't have significant value in that one year.    

I said at the time that I think that if O'Day were on the open market during the offseason he would get 1/3.

[Ruzious]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I said at the time that I think that if O'Day were on the open market during the offseason he would get 1/3.

Well, then it must be so.  Actually you're really good at those estimations - I've noticed over the years.  

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I said at the time that I think that if O'Day were on the open market during the offseason he would get 1/3.

He’s capable of being worth the full $9 mm if he’s healthy.   Not saying he’ll do it, or that he’d be paid that if he was a FA right now.   Just saying it could happen.    

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

He’s capable of being worth the full $9 mm if he’s healthy.   Not saying he’ll do it, or that he’d be paid that if he was a FA right now.   Just saying it could happen.    

Sure, but he's also a risk to be worth nothing.

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, but he's also a risk to be worth nothing.

Can’t disagree.   

[tntoriole]

7 hours ago, Aglets said:

A fair debate would be posting about all the games at roughly equal frequency with perhaps a bit extra attention paid to games that go against the established narrative.

Fun fact, there are 15 teams in the National League and if you rank all of them by offensive production,  Gausman has faced #12, #8, #10 twice, #15 twice and #9.

It would be an absolute shock if his overall numbers weren't significantly improved after the trade basically by default, for one thing.    Kinda like what's going on with Chris Archer right now I guess......that is pretty weird.

I do believe that Gausman will put up better numbers in ATL than he did here but I don't really think this is another Arrieta situation.

I think Gausman very well could have an A.J. Burnett type career path...hitting an outstanding season or two where he is much better than he has been to date, then a long stretch of some down, some up but overall productive, but not necessarily outstanding, seasons.    At 5 years in, at age 28 Burnett had 11.1 WAR and Gausman is at 11.6.   Burnett pitched a total of 17 seasons with 29.1 career WAR. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, Ruzious said:

We've already accounted for the expense part - which is only for 1 year,  but if he's healthy next season, there's no reason he can't have significant value in that one year.    

Actually, they paid for 1. 37 years. 

[Redskins Rick]

Gausman had a poor outing Monday.

Not that I want the kick the guy.

I find it ironic, all those up in arms, everytime he pitched well, remained silent, when he didn't.