Mesa Brothers Declared Free Agents By MLB

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, atomic said:

The most plate appearances he ever had was 287 at age 29.  He was never an every day player. 

3.5 rWAR that season.

[atomic]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

3.5 rWAR that season.

Great in his career year at 29 he played in half his games.  I would not pay 4 million signing bonus to someone who's potential is Gentry.  

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, atomic said:

Great in his career year at 29 he played in half his games.  I would not pay 4 million signing bonus to someone who's potential is Gentry.  

Would be pretty silly to pay 4 million so you can have a season where he produces ~30 million in value in under 300 at bats.

[Frobby]

57 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

His ceiling isn't Craig Gentry. He has significantly more pop than prime Gentry. The question with VVM is hit tool, he struggled in a SSS in the Canadian-American Association in 2017. 

As with anyone with hit tool questions but big tools otherwise, there is a wide range of outcomes. He could never figure out MLB pitching, or he could be an all-star caliber player if he can get to average hit tool. The swing works and there is bat speed so it's going to be a matter of pitch and zone recognition. I have no idea of whether he'll develop those qualities, I'd need to see him against high minors pitching before I'd be comfortable making that assessment.

I think Albert Almora Jr is a reasonable projection but the error bars are big here. 

Almora would be a spectacular outcome.   

[atomic]

57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would be pretty silly to pay 4 million so you can have a season where he produces ~30 million in value in under 300 at bats.

Your calculations are completely stupid.  If 1 WAR is worth 10 million to get to 90 wins you would have to spend 500 million.   

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, atomic said:

Your calculations are completely stupid.  If 1 WAR is worth 10 million to get to 90 wins you would have to spend 500 million.   

Your basic math skills are lacking.  3.5 times 10 does not equal 30.

I'm sure you have been around here long enough to understand the point I was making.  Not sure why you are going with the ignorance defense.

 

[atomic]

57 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Your basic math skills are lacking.  3.5 times 10 does not equal 30.

I'm sure you have been around here long enough to understand the point I was making.  Not sure why you are going with the ignorance defense.

 

The point you were making is you were bad at math?  To get 90 wins at that rate would cost you 428 million dollars.  Also Gentry never made more than 1.6 million in a season.  If only teams realized he was worth 30 million a year. LOL.

[Luke-OH]

8 minutes ago, atomic said:

The point you were making is you were bad at math?  To get 90 wins at that rate would cost you 428 million dollars.  Also Gentry never made more than 1.6 million in a season.  If only teams realized he was worth 30 million a year. LOL.

Goodness, the valuations are based on free agent pricing. Certain types of assets are valued differently but COC's number is a reasonable average $/WAR. 

Obviously no team can afford to pay free agent value for every member of a 90 win team, that's overwhelmingly obvious and does more to prove COC's point than disprove it. 

But to get back to the meat of the disagreement, every team in baseball would pay a 4m bonus plus pre-arb and arb salaries for Gentry's early career, even though it was only 2 good years. 

 

[atomic]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Goodness, the valuations are based on free agent pricing. Certain types of assets are valued differently but COC's number is a reasonable average $/WAR. 

Obviously no team can afford to pay free agent value for every member of a 90 win team, that's overwhelmingly obvious and does more to prove COC's point than disprove it. 

But to get back to the meat of the disagreement, every team in baseball would pay a 4m bonus plus pre-arb and arb salaries for Gentry's early career, even though it was only 2 good years. 

 

No his valuation is way off. Players aren't getting paid 30 million a year for 3.5 WAR seasons.  

Also teams wouldn't pay 4 million signing bonus if a players ceiling is Gentry because that could mean they are worse.  

[atomic]

By Can of Corns logic Cashner should have gotten paid 36.8 million this year. ROFL

[Luke-OH]

3 minutes ago, atomic said:

No his valuation is way off. Players aren't getting paid 30 million a year for 3.5 WAR seasons.  

Also teams wouldn't pay 4 million signing bonus if a players ceiling is Gentry because that could mean they are worse.  

Arrieta got 25m per coming off of a 1.9 WAR season, with a 3.7 WAR before that and that's over 3 years, which means there is obviously a discounting for age and injury risk.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, atomic said:

By Can of Corns logic Cashner should have gotten paid 36.8 million this year. ROFL

So you think teams were willing to pay a pitcher 4.3 WAR value, when that pitcher had negative WAR the previous three years. Teams pay players based on internal projections, not exactly publically available WAR measures but along the same lines with much more available Trackman data included. They pay a player on what is expected going forward, a true talent 3.5 WAR player in their prime would get close to 30M per.

That's why the age of a player when they reach free agency is so important. If a guy who has been 3.5 WAR for the first 6 years of his career hits free agency at 30yo, assuming a 6 year deal, would get paid for 3 WAR, 2.5 WAR, 2 WAR, 1.5 WAR, 1 WAR, .5 WAR per a standard aging curve (teams probably have more exact aging curves they apply based on position, speed, and other variables). That's 10.5 WAR over 6 years, so about 6/90m, which is an emminently reasonable salary for that type of player and might be light.

 

[25 Nuggets]

Let's strip away the WAR and just talk about Gentry's 2012-2013 seasons in common statistics:

Per 162 games:  397 PA, 348 AB, .292/.370/.389, .759, 106 OPS+, 27 SB, 8 CS

A really good defensive CF with a .370 OBP and speed on the bases... yeah I'll take that with or without power.

[atomic]

11 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Let's strip away the WAR and just talk about Gentry's 2012-2013 seasons in common statistics:

Per 162 games:  397 PA, 348 AB, .292/.370/.389, .759, 106 OPS+, 27 SB, 8 CS

A really good defensive CF with a .370 OBP and speed on the bases... yeah I'll take that with or without power.

If he played every day.  But he only played half the games. Because even in his very short prime he couldn't hit right handers.   I cant believe I even have to argue this. 

[Barnaby Graves]

O/U at number of pages in this thread before VVM signs with someone or does anything beyond being some obscure and exotic guy with vague notions of latent talent?  How does 85 pages sound?

Also taking side bets on number of pages spent arguing baseball economics in regards to someone who could top out as 2nd string coffee boy at AA.

Not the fault of anyone here.  This really shows how desperate we feel the situation is with the organization.