Luke’s 2018 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[jerios55]

On 11/13/2018 at 1:47 PM, atomic said:

I don't think you need to have a 30 win team for a season to be rebuilding.  If you sign a bunch of these Rule 5 guys and don't improve the roster that is where you are headed.  I am not sure what the point of building the worst team in major league history is.  Or having a team of lower quality than AAA even.  

Also Andreoli is already gone and I hope Mike Wright is gone as well.  There are minor league free agents and low salary major league free agents that could improve the club to be at least in the mid 50 win level.  

The only Rule 5 guy who helped the big league team at all was Flaherty and he was replacement level and could easily have been traded for next to nothing.  The rest of the guys are mostly players who stunk up the roster for a year. Went down to the minors the next year and then disappeared from everyone's mind.   Well TJ McFarland was with the team several years being worse than replacement level. 

Joey Rickard was at least Flaherty level, not that I'm changing your argument...

[theocean]

On 11/13/2018 at 6:31 AM, POR said:

How Ben Cherington handled the 2013 Red Sox has zero to do with how he would handle the Orioles. The Orioles were 47-115.  They are rebuilding.   The Red Sox in 2012 underachieved greatly under Bobby Valentine and just made tweaks to compete in 2013.

Carlos Asauje, Allen Coedoba, Javy Guerra, Alex Dickerson, Robbie Erlin, Brett Kennedy, Walter Lockett, Eric Lauer, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Perdomo may be impacted by the Padres tight 40 man roster.  The idea that Chris Paddack would be available because the Padres roster is full is silly.

 

It cannot be overstated how much Bobby Valentine underachieved with that team.

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, theocean said:

It cannot be overstated how much Bobby Valentine underachieved with that team.

Oh, it probably can.   And perhaps you just did.   

I’m not here to tell you that Valentine did a good job, but he did join a team that had largely been blown up.    Ortiz missed a good chunk of the season and so did Ellsbury.   Youkilis aged poorly and kind’ve fell apart that year.   Put it this way, the 2012 Red Sox weren’t a playoff team no matter who had been managing them.   Could they have done better than 69 wins?    Probably.   

[atomic]

46 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh, it probably can.   And perhaps you just did.   

I’m not here to tell you that Valentine did a good job, but he did join a team that had largely been blown up.    Ortiz missed a good chunk of the season and so did Ellsbury.   Youkilis aged poorly and kind’ve fell apart that year.   Put it this way, the 2012 Red Sox weren’t a playoff team no matter who had been managing them.   Could they have done better than 69 wins?    Probably.   

I remember when Valentine coached the Rangers how badly they were with fundamentals. But the had success with the Mets. 

[weams]

 

[weams]

 

[theocean]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Oh, it probably can.   And perhaps you just did.   

I’m not here to tell you that Valentine did a good job, but he did join a team that had largely been blown up.    Ortiz missed a good chunk of the season and so did Ellsbury.   Youkilis aged poorly and kind’ve fell apart that year.   Put it this way, the 2012 Red Sox weren’t a playoff team no matter who had been managing them.   Could they have done better than 69 wins?    Probably.   

Come on, Frobby. In 2011 they won 90 games, in 2013 they won the World Series. Ortiz himself said that clubhouse atmosphere Valentine created kept them from winning games:

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/boston-red-sox/david-ortiz-details-bobby-valentine-season-managing-boston-red-sox-in-book-excerpt

[Frobby]

Just now, theocean said:

Come on, Frobby. In 2011 they won 90 games, in 2013 they won the World Series. Ortiz himself said that clubhouse atmosphere Valentine created kept them from winning games:

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/boston-red-sox/david-ortiz-details-bobby-valentine-season-managing-boston-red-sox-in-book-excerpt

I see 2013 as more of a fluke than 2012 — after all, look what happened in 2014 without Valentine.   As I’ve expressed elsewhere, 2013 was driven by several offseason acquisitions having great years along with a few others.   Valentine was horrible but that 2012 team wasn’t going anywhere regardless.

[WarehouseChatter]

So if the roster stays as is, who do we lose in the draft? Jomar Reyes?  Chris Lee?  Others?

[weams]

2 minutes ago, WarehouseChatter said:

So if the roster stays as is, who do we lose in the draft? Jomar Reyes?  Chris Lee?  Others?

No one? 

[WarehouseChatter]

Just now, weams said:

No one? 

Possibly, but I have to think someone would take a flyer on one of these 2 - especially after Lee performed "okay" in the AFL.  Reyes hasn't developed but a team may try to sneak him onto their roster as a project.  I lean towards your answer - we'll see.

[Ven6]

Okay now that we have gotten all those side-bar conversations out of our system and we know who was left unprotected, anyone have a take on who looks interesting? @Luke-OH?

 

Or we could go back to discussing the 2012 Red Sox ;)

[weams]

13 minutes ago, WarehouseChatter said:

Possibly, but I have to think someone would take a flyer on one of these 2 - especially after Lee performed "okay" in the AFL.  Reyes hasn't developed but a team may try to sneak him onto their roster as a project.  I lean towards your answer - we'll see.

You know, the Rays DFA'd C.J. Cron.  Now he cost 5 million but he had a ops+ of 123 last season. I don't think corner guys infield or outfield are in things right now. 

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Ven6 said:

Okay now that we have gotten all those side-bar conversations out of our system and we know who was left unprotected, anyone have a take on who looks interesting? @Luke-OH?

 

Or we could go back to discussing the 2012 Red Sox

My initial list got decimated by players getting protected. Even some more under the radar types I liked such as JT Brubacker, Ty France, Patrick Murphy, Brock Burke, and Sam Hentges all got protected.

I still have 30 some names, and I'm going to try to add 15-20 more and whittle them down to a top 30.

20 minutes ago, WarehouseChatter said:

So if the roster stays as is, who do we lose in the draft? Jomar Reyes?  Chris Lee?  Others?

Cervenka is the most likely IMO, backup catcher with some raw pop is a popular rule 5 typecast. Maybe someone thinks they can fix Chris Lee, but if I had to put odds on it, I'd say it's more likely no one gets picked. 

[Ven6]

39 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

My initial list got decimated by players getting protected. Even some more under the radar types I liked such as JT Brubacker, Ty France, Patrick Murphy, Brock Burke, and Sam Hentges all got protected.

I still have 30 some names, and I'm going to try to add 15-20 more and whittle them down to a top 30.

Cervenka is the most likely IMO, backup catcher with some raw pop is a popular rule 5 typecast. Maybe someone thinks they can fix Chris Lee, but if I had to put odds on it, I'd say it's more likely no one gets picked. 

I always look forward to and appreciate your thoughtful work. Thank you in advance.