FanGraphs ranks O’s minor league system 28th

[DrungoHazewood]

19 minutes ago, atomic said:

Interesting.  It would be nice if this article had how much percent each factor correlated to success in the majors.  But like it says in the article the lower the success is in the minors the less predictive it is.  That is why when people are bragging about pitchers at Delmarva i don't really pay attention. Until pitchers get to Frederick what they do is really not worth following to me.  Also why I sort by age before looking at any stats for players.  If a guy isn't starting at Frederick or Bowie I don't bother to look at their stats. If they are over 23 at Frederick or 24 at Bowie then they start looking like non prospects. 

Age compared to level is the most important thing to look at.  Before Ks, before homers, before anything.  2-3 years is an epic amount of difference, 4-5 is like a whole other universe.  If you have a guy at Frederick who's OPSing .750 at the age of 19 that's tremendously more impressive than a guy OPSing .950 there at 24.

[LookinUp]

18 hours ago, atomic said:

I think it is more than ERA to evaluate pitchers in the minors.  Sedlock is 24 and pitching in single A.  Some of the other guys are soft tossers who might have difficulties in AAA and in the MLB. 

Sedlock is a perfect example of the type of churn on these lists. If he was rated at all by Fangraphs last year, I'm guessing it was with a lower FV than they'll rank him this time around. At least, it should be. That doesn't mean he'll turn into our very own Greg Maddux, but he counts. We have a few guys like him who have made jumps this year. Others have not, or have declined, of course, but on net I think most prospect rankers would show net improvement for our system since November.

[atomic]

24 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Sedlock is a perfect example of the type of churn on these lists. If he was rated at all by Fangraphs last year, I'm guessing it was with a lower FV than they'll rank him this time around. At least, it should be. That doesn't mean he'll turn into our very own Greg Maddux, but he counts. We have a few guys like him who have made jumps this year. Others have not, or have declined, of course, but on net I think most prospect rankers would show net improvement for our system since November.

I don't think Sedlock will get much future value unless he has success at Bowie this year. Relatively low K/9 and old for the league.  

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, atomic said:

But like it says in the article the lower the success is in the minors the less predictive it is.  That is why when people are bragging about pitchers at Delmarva i don't really pay attention. Until pitchers get to Frederick what they do is really not worth following to me.  Also why I sort by age before looking at any stats for players.  If a guy isn't starting at Frederick or Bowie I don't bother to look at their stats. If they are over 23 at Frederick or 24 at Bowie then they start looking like non prospects. 

I still like looking at the Delmarva guys so long as they’re age appropriate.    And sometimes you get guys who got derailed by injuries and you have to look at them a little differently.   

Blaine Knight gave an interview the other day where he made it pretty clear he felt the competition he faced in the Sally League was below the level he faced in the SEC.

[LookinUp]

44 minutes ago, atomic said:

I don't think Sedlock will get much future value unless he has success at Bowie this year. Relatively low K/9 and old for the league.  

It's all relative. His FV was totally in the tank last year. Many apparently thought he'd never get his stuff back. He has, to some extent. So while he won't likely end up with a 50 FV, it's also not a 10 or 20 anymore either. At this point it looks like he could end up being a major league pitcher after all. Last year, it looked like he was toast. 

[atomic]

8 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

It's all relative. His FV was totally in the tank last year. Many apparently thought he'd never get his stuff back. He has, to some extent. So while he won't likely end up with a 50 FV, it's also not a 10 or 20 anymore either. At this point it looks like he could end up being a major league pitcher after all. Last year, it looked like he was toast. 

If you look at their values outside the top 131 it isn't going to move the needle much.   Getting someone in the top 131 will help the rankings more than anything.  I would put him very low on the list of our potential additions to the list. 

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, atomic said:

If you look at their values outside the top 131 it isn't going to move the needle much.   Getting someone in the top 131 will help the rankings more than anything.  I would put him very low on the list of our potential additions to the list. 

Put it this way:  Fangraphs ranked our top 32 prospects back in January, including anyone they felt was worth 35+ FV.    Sedlock wasn’t even on that list.   So if he gets on the list, that adds some value.   I believe under their system a 45 FV pitcher is worth $6 mm and a 40 FV pitcher is worth $3 mm.

[atomic]

Sedlock potentially could maybe increase the value of our prospects by 3 or 4 million according to their formulas.  When we sign our #1 overall pick that would be worth more than 15 Sedlock's increasing in value. 

We have no one rated above 45.  a 45 pitcher is worth 6 million dollars (according to them).  a 40 rated pitcher is worth 3 million dollars.  So if Sedlock is unrated or rated 40 either way an increase of a level will only amount to 3 million dollars in future value. 3 million more dollars wouldn't even raise us a spot.  If we draft a 65 rated position player that would raise us 62 million dollars of future value.  We would move up to where the Yankees and Marlins were rated.  

[atomic]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Put it this way:  Fangraphs ranked our top 32 prospects back in January, including anyone they felt was worth 35+ FV.    Sedlock wasn’t even on that list.   So if he gets on the list, that adds some value.   Not sure how much, but the lowest 50 FV was worth $9 mm under their methodology, so it’s less than that.   

A 40 pitcher has $3 million future value.  He isn't moving the needle.  Really there system is centered towards stars.  I am not sure why Mountcastle isn't rated higher by them. He seems like he will be a decent hitting first baseman.  I would assume he would provide more future value than they assign him.

[atomic]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Put it this way:  Fangraphs ranked our top 32 prospects back in January, including anyone they felt was worth 35+ FV.    Sedlock wasn’t even on that list.   So if he gets on the list, that adds some value.   Not sure how much, but the lowest 50 FV was worth $9 mm under their methodology, so it’s less than that.   

Ok in that list they have Mountcastle, Diaz and DL Hall all at 50.  That would be $77 million in future value just from the those 3 guys.  

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, atomic said:

A 40 pitcher has $3 million future value.  He isn't moving the needle.  Really there system is centered towards stars.  I am not sure why Mountcastle isn't rated higher by them. He seems like he will be a decent hitting first baseman.  I would assume he would provide more future value than they assign him.

I edited my post after seeing the information you have about how they value 45 and 40 FV pitchers.   Thanks for that.   

Their system is interesting, but at the end of the day I’d like as many guys performing well as possible.  I don’t think John Means was ranked by them going into the season, and he’s already provided several million dollars of excess value.   

[atomic]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I edited my post after seeing the information you have about how they value 45 and 40 FV pitchers.   Thanks for that.   

Their system is interesting, but at the end of the day I’d like as many guys performing well as possible.  I don’t think John Means was ranked by them going into the season, and he’s already provided several million dollars of excess value.   

Yeah they are going to miss guys who don't fit the forumula.  I think our best current player to move up to 50 seems to be Grayson Rodriguez  but Diaz could fall down to 45.  Some of the guys seem likely to move down or off the list: Harvey, Tate, Ortiz for example.  

If Mountcastle, Diaz, and Hall can stay at 50 and Rodriguez moves to 50 and our draft pick comes it at 65 we could be rated middle of the pack.  It isn't as horrible as it appears.

[atomic]

Also something to think about Means.  They use FIP to calculate WAR on pitchers.  Means FIP isn't all that great.  While BWAR is 1.8 FWAR is only .9.  I would prefer they use BWAR for pitchers.  Their simplistic WAR calculation for pitchers kind of makes their other calculations less useful. 

[52520Andrew]

Yeah it will take time to really get the farm system really going. I do think this year has been a step in the right direction. I am encouraged by a lot of the pitching performances by people in house which hopefully speaks to better development on that front. I will take some stock in Delmarva doing really well too because eventually the players in that league are going to move up and that will translate to a better Frederick. Going to take time but if we keep pumping good players into the system then we will eventually get there.