Elias will be active in the free agent market this off season

[24fps]

1 hour ago, weams said:

The Orioles probably won't either. It will mostly be so they can survive the next three. And pay out profits to the partners. It will be real cheap. 70 is not cheap enough. 

Where to you think ME's target is for the end of 2019?  My gut tells me $40-50 million. AzRon's current estimate has the payroll now at around $78 million.  Lose Trumbo and Cobb and there's still a ways to go.  I don't see too many FA contracts above $2 million next season regardless of upside or speculative trade value around the AS break.  

If fact, I'll predict that shedding payroll will the the primary theme for 2019 and return on any deal secondary.  Back to the Third World for us Orioles fans.

[mdbdotcom]

9 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Where to you think ME's target is for the end of 2019?  My gut tells me $40-50 million. AzRon's current estimate has the payroll now at around $78 million.  Lose Trumbo and Cobb and there's still a ways to go.  I don't see too many FA contracts above $2 million next season regardless of upside or speculative trade value around the AS break.  

If fact, I'll predict that shedding payroll will the the primary theme for 2019 and return on any deal secondary.  Back to the Third World for us Orioles fans.

Why, that would be like trading Gausman just to get rid of his contract and the O'Day contract. Heavens no!!!

[24fps]

25 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Why, that would be like trading Gausman just to get rid of his contract and the O'Day contract. Heavens no!!!

I don't know if you're being facetious or not, but I believe that is exactly the message Duquette was given and I believe that remains the operating principle at least for the 2019 season.  Anyone who thinks that the Orioles' current trade assets will be devoted to improving the minor league system risks being disappointed IMO.  Certainly that will be the goal and a welcome byproduct, but any deal will ultimately be cut on the money.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

They did, but I don't think it was so they could support a higher payroll six years later.

The point being, the less they spend now, the more flexibility they have in the future. A free agent here or there doesn't help us win now, but only blocks guys from developing and creating obligations. Yes, maybe ownership pockets some of the profits, but if you go cheap now, you might be more likely to go in the red to get Verlander for a year or two.

This is the Houston model:

2013 $22M (30th)

2014 $44.5M (30th)

2015 $70.9M (29th)

2016 $69M (30th)

2017 $118M (18th)

2018 $160M (11th).

Win some games first with the core, then spend the money to win the ring.

[Ohfan67]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Eh.  Houston is a pretty sizeable market.  I don't think they really needed to stockpile cash.

The Astros had serious issues. They were basically not  on local cable for at least one year and They and Comcast are still suing each other. Their current sports channel is not included on most of the Houston area cable packages. I live 90 miles from Minute Maid and their sports channel is not an option on local cable. The current owner inherited a mess that is still not cleaned up. 

[sportsfan8703]

Active in the FA market. What about the international FA market?  The FO office could just be stealing optimism from us. The beauty of their plan, we won’t know if we’re players in the international FA market for like 6 months. Then maybe we throw a little down there and say we’re working on infastructure and scouts. 

I just don’t know if I trust ownership. I think they made the right hire at GM, but I also think the old GM was an awesome hire if he would have had full control post 2014. 

But back to being active in the FA market, where are we even looking at?  Reliever, SP, SS?  Everywhere else we kind of need to see what we have. 

[Roll Tide]

On 12/3/2018 at 8:19 PM, weams said:

Yes. 

So hopefully there is a plan to save resources to be used later. Our opening day payroll last year was 148 million.

I know we dumped at least  10-20 million at the deadline off that number at he deadline. So we have a handsome amount to hire front office staff,,new scouts , and invest in the international endeavors. 

We should have half that number left as surplus .... let's say 10 million or this example.

The 2019 payroll is 77 million and let's say they sign some free agents that end up sitting on the stale market....another SP,  a SS , etc 

I think bumping the payroll to 100 million is probably exaggerated ...but for example sake let's call it that.

That would mean about 50-60 million can go in the bank for a future cntract. It's conceivable that we can have nearly 200 million by the time we are ready to invest after 3 seasons. 

That could easily cover a couple of top free agents (non Harper-Machado types) entire contract.

[Roll Tide]

16 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Active in the FA market. What about the international FA market?  The FO office could just be stealing optimism from us. The beauty of their plan, we won’t know if we’re players in the international FA market for like 6 months. Then maybe we throw a little down there and say we’re working on infastructure and scouts. 

I just don’t know if I trust ownership. I think they made the right hire at GM, but I also think the old GM was an awesome hire if he would have had full control post 2014. 

But back to being active in the FA market, where are we even looking at?  Reliever, SP, SS?  Everywhere else we kind of need to see what we have. 

If ownership has really turned things over to Elias and there is no reason not to believe them at this point ....We have to assume that Elias will have a budget and has full control. 

As mentioned , I would be putting the largest majority away for later.

It is my feeling that Elias will send the slot money unless he feels that there is nothing worth spending it on. I have to believe he will at very least spend a portion of it.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

So hopefully there is a plan to save resources to be used later. Our opening day payroll last year was 148 million.

I know we dumped at least  10-20 million at the deadline off that number at he deadline. So we have a handsome amount to hire front office staff,,new scouts , and invest in the international endeavors. 

We should have half that number left as surplus .... let's say 10 million or this example.

The 2019 payroll is 77 million and let's say they sign some free agents that end up sitting on the stale market....another SP,  a SS , etc 

I think bumping the payroll to 100 million is probably exaggerated ...but for example sake let's call it that.

That would mean about 50-60 million can go in the bank for a future cntract. It's conceivable that we can have nearly 200 million by the time we are ready to invest after 3 seasons. 

That could easily cover a couple of top free agents (non Harper-Machado types) entire contract.

Dont forget that attendance was way down last year and will be even further down next year.  

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

So hopefully there is a plan to save resources to be used later. Our opening day payroll last year was 148 million.

I know we dumped at least  10-20 million at the deadline off that number at he deadline. So we have a handsome amount to hire front office staff,,new scouts , and invest in the international endeavors. 

We should have half that number left as surplus .... let's say 10 million or this example.

The 2019 payroll is 77 million and let's say they sign some free agents that end up sitting on the stale market....another SP,  a SS , etc 

I think bumping the payroll to 100 million is probably exaggerated ...but for example sake let's call it that.

That would mean about 50-60 million can go in the bank for a future cntract. It's conceivable that we can have nearly 200 million by the time we are ready to invest after 3 seasons. 

That could easily cover a couple of top free agents (non Harper-Machado types) entire contract.

There's no crying in baseball.

No savings accounts either...

[El Gordo]

i'd like to see them pick up a vet C to help with the SP,  a plus D SS, and a back end RP.,  just so there is something to watch.

[section18]

They still have to sell season tickets. I am planning to renew again as usual. With four or five additions we can win a lot more games in 2019. I cannot wait to see what Elias does at the winter meetings besides make a rule 5 pick next Thursday. I hope he surprises us.

[Roll Tide]

6 hours ago, section18 said:

They still have to sell season tickets. I am planning to renew again as usual. With four or five additions we can win a lot more games in 2019. I cannot wait to see what Elias does at the winter meetings besides make a rule 5 pick next Thursday. I hope he surprises us.

I suspect that your going to be disappointed. Even if they do add a player or two they are going to be February signings from the bargain bin.

Part of the plan includes the high draft picks that come from finishing at or near the bottom.

[mdbdotcom]

6 hours ago, section18 said:

They still have to sell season tickets. I am planning to renew again as usual. With four or five additions we can win a lot more games in 2019. I cannot wait to see what Elias does at the winter meetings besides make a rule 5 pick next Thursday. I hope he surprises us.

I think there's a lot more tearing down to do before opening day. Projected payroll is too high. Plus, we need  a high draft pick next season. 54 wins would be good.

[weams]

On 12/3/2018 at 9:30 PM, 24fps said:

Where to you think ME's target is for the end of 2019?  My gut tells me $40-50 million. AzRon's current estimate has the payroll now at around $78 million.  Lose Trumbo and Cobb and there's still a ways to go.  I don't see too many FA contracts above $2 million next season regardless of upside or speculative trade value around the AS break.  

If fact, I'll predict that shedding payroll will the the primary theme for 2019 and return on any deal secondary.  Back to the Third World for us Orioles fans.

I think the Angelos brothers and Mike Elias have set a target for expenditures not reliant upon on field performance during that period. So how low can it go?