Elias will be active in the free agent market this off season

[atomic]

2 hours ago, weams said:

I think the Angelos brothers and Mike Elias have set a target for expenditures not reliant upon on field performance during that period. So how low can it go? 

I think in 2020 the Orioles will trade  Cobb and Davis will be making more than the rest of the team combined.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, mdbdotcom said:

I think there's a lot more tearing down to do before opening day. Projected payroll is too high. Plus, we need  a high draft pick next season. 54 wins would be good.

I am not sure that the tear down will happen before opening day.    Elias may evaluate the talent on the team until July and then sell off.  That would lead to a lower payroll in the 2nd half.

[jamalshw]

58 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I am not sure that the tear down will happen before opening day.    Elias may evaluate the talent on the team until July and then sell off.  That would lead to a lower payroll in the 2nd half.

I agree. While I think there are obviously pieces Elias would like to move ASAP,  I think mid-season is where we really start seeing the rebuild with guys like Mountcastle, Diaz, Hays, Tate, Ortiz and other start pushing their way on the roster. I don't care what the team looks like on Opening Day so much, but am interested in the one we have on August 1.

I think Elias may have a chance to move some bigger dollars at the deadline. If Trumbo is okay, a couple months of him is easier to move than a full season. Villar's speed may hold some value to contending clubs looking to add some versatility and speed on the bench. If Cashner is throwing well, he could be a starting depth move for a team. Cobb is still likely too pricey to move, but if he pitches very well...maybe.

[foxfield]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I am not sure that the tear down will happen before opening day.    Elias may evaluate the talent on the team until July and then sell off.  That would lead to a lower payroll in the 2nd half.

One thing we should acknowledge is that there really isn't any talent to evaluate on the team...Yes some of the young players will get their chance, but they are not likely to be part of any sell off because, well, they already are cheap.  No, the only reason to wait is simply to see if any tweaks can be made that increase value.  

But the issue is really the time value of money.  For example, as long as Chris Davis is not retired or suspended, he is sunk cost.  The Orioles are currently projected to open with around $70M and that is huge for a team that hopes to only lose 100 games.  So, if Elias could move 10M to 15M and somehow hold picks?  Wouldn't he have to consider that?  Doesn't his past history suggest that he will look for ways to create value both short term and long?

Again, my point is he may well wait till July.  But it won't be because he needs to look at talent.  It will be because players needed to be on the field to create value, or he needed to see if adjustments were productive.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, foxfield said:

One thing we should acknowledge is that there really isn't any talent to evaluate on the team...Yes some of the young players will get their chance, but they are not likely to be part of any sell off because, well, they already are cheap.  No, the only reason to wait is simply to see if any tweaks can be made that increase value.  

But the issue is really the time value of money.  For example, as long as Chris Davis is not retired or suspended, he is sunk cost.  The Orioles are currently projected to open with around $70M and that is huge for a team that hopes to only lose 100 games.  So, if Elias could move 10M to 15M and somehow hold picks?  Wouldn't he have to consider that?  Doesn't his past history suggest that he will look for ways to create value both short term and long?

Again, my point is he may well wait till July.  But it won't be because he needs to look at talent.  It will be because players needed to be on the field to create value, or he needed to see if adjustments were productive.

Elias will be evaluating.  He will be looking at Bundy, Givens, Bleier, and Mancini to see if he should trade them or offer them arbitration next off season.    That in addition to evaluating how much he can trade Villar, Trumbo and Cashner for.    If Cobb has a good season he could be  traded also.

As long as the O's are out for the Wild Card race in July any and all these players could be traded in July.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, foxfield said:

One thing we should acknowledge is that there really isn't any talent to evaluate on the team...Yes some of the young players will get their chance, but they are not likely to be part of any sell off because, well, they already are cheap.  No, the only reason to wait is simply to see if any tweaks can be made that increase value.  

But the issue is really the time value of money.  For example, as long as Chris Davis is not retired or suspended, he is sunk cost.  The Orioles are currently projected to open with around $70M and that is huge for a team that hopes to only lose 100 games.  So, if Elias could move 10M to 15M and somehow hold picks?  Wouldn't he have to consider that?  Doesn't his past history suggest that he will look for ways to create value both short term and long?

Again, my point is he may well wait till July.  But it won't be because he needs to look at talent.  It will be because players needed to be on the field to create value, or he needed to see if adjustments were productive.

Its closer to 80m.

[weams]

59 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its closer to 80m.

Right now. Let's see next week!

[wildcard]

16 minutes ago, weams said:

Right now. Let's see next week!

So you think Elias will be buying or selling at the winter meetings?

[weams]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So you think Elias will be buying or selling at the winter meetings?

He will sign cheap guys and sell expensive ones. I think under 60 million is a target.

[Frobby]

Just now, weams said:

He will sign cheap guys and sell expensive ones. I think under 60 million is a target.

I think he will sign cheap guys later in the offseason, based on his remarks to date.   I think it will be tough to get payroll below $60 mm unless he doesn’t care at all about getting value in return.   For example, I’m sure he could eat $15 mm of Cobb’s remaining $42 mm and get some longshot prospects, and save $9 mm off this year’s payroll.    But I think he’d be better off holding onto Cobb and hoping he has a good first half, then trading him at the deadline at less of a discount (if any) for better prospects. 

[weams]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think he will sign cheap guys later in the offseason, based on his remarks to date.   I think it will be tough to get payroll below $60 mm unless he doesn’t care at all about getting value in return.   For example, I’m sure he could eat $15 mm of Cobb’s remaining $42 mm and get some longshot prospects, and save $9 mm off this year’s payroll.    But I think he’d be better off holding onto Cobb and hoping he has a good first half, then trading him at the deadline at less of a discount (if any) for better prospects. 

I've been in a depreciating asset business. One of the hardest lessons I learned was "your first loss is your best loss." No small measures will fill the seats or make much difference this season. Feel the bone.  If you want to gamble, invest the money somewhere. 

[interloper]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

So you think Elias will be buying or selling at the winter meetings?

I'm not sure why we think he'll be able to sell anyone expensive before the trade deadline, much less at the winter meetings.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm not sure why we think he'll be able to sell anyone expensive before the trade deadline, much less at the winter meetings.

He could sell someone like Givens or Bundy.

He might be able to get someone to take Cashner.

Cashner's deal isn't that bad.

[24fps]

Givens is gone before opening day IMO.

[Frobby]

On 12/3/2018 at 2:34 PM, wildbillhiccup said:

They're not signing Schoop for $2M or less. He won't get $10M, but someone will give him $5M or $6M. There's no doubt in my mind. 

 

On 12/3/2018 at 2:45 PM, Frobby said:

I agree.    A year ago, people were suggesting contracts like 5/$80 mm or 6/$90 mm for Schoop.    He’s not having his annual value cut by 75% because he had one down year.    

 

On 12/3/2018 at 3:37 PM, atomic said:

I dont think he will have a choice.  

 

On 12/3/2018 at 4:01 PM, Frobby said:

 

You and I have different opinions about Schoop’s value, but we will find out soon enough.   It will be interesting to see who signs him and for how much and how long.   

The market has spoken: $7 mm+.   And it didn’t take long, either.