Roster thoughts

[wildcard]

The roster is going to be fluid all off season and for that matter for several years.   Someone becomes available on the waiver wire like happened yesterday and it shifts the roster.   So as of now lets look at where the roster is and where it might be headed.  

The claiming of Rio Ruiz shows a few things.  1) One its a move for defense at 3B.   He has more range and a more consistent arm than Nunez.  2) He add a left-hand bat to the lineup.   3) His downside is though he hits  right-handed pitching well in the minors, he does not hit lefties very well at all.   4) My thought is that this could set up a platoon at 3B.    Ruiz vs righties, Nunez vs lefties.     We will see how that plays out. (Some really stupid comments of MASN All Access about Ruiz being a lefthanded thrower.  He is not.  He throws right-handed. Bats lefthanded.)

Elias said yesterday that Villar is a SS and will play there  a lot.   I think we have to keep in mind that Villar is probably not a long term player with the O's.   COTS  projects him to make 5m this coming season and that will go up in 2020.  He is eligible to be a  free agent  after the 2020 season.   He well probably be showcased throughout the first half to see if they can get a good prospect or two for him in July.   If he can show that he can handle SS and 2B well in the first  half that  helps his trade  value.   

Valera looks like he has good range at 2B.  Both he and Wilkerson came through the minors as 2B.   Either will probably be a long term answer at 2B but they could begin the 2019 season there.   Neither is that great at SS.   So the player that Elias needs that is not in the system right now is a SS that can take over in the 2nd half if Villar is traded.  That player will probably have to be versatile enough be play SS or 2B base well.

Wynn is probably a catcher on the roster to start the season but the O's will probably need to add another catcher.

Davis at 1B, Trumbo at DH, Mancini has to play and for now LF is his spot.  Not long term but until Trumbo is traded in July hopefully.   If Mancini is in LF then to have a decent outfield defense CF and RF has to have range.    Mullins in center is fine but he does not hit lefties.  That looks like another platoon at the moment.  Mullins and Rickard in CF.     Stewart does not fit real well in RF.  He doesn't have the arm and his range is nothing special.   Stewart has options.  Hays is the long term answer in RF but he will have to earn it in ST.  For projection purposes I think Hays will to start the year in the minors.  He is probably ready by mid season with any luck and the O's get another year of contract control if he does not come up until July..   RF looks like a spot for some FA help until then.

I know there is a lot of concern about Davis at 1B but he will probably get a shot to start the season with Mancini backing him up.   How long that lasts in anyone's guess.

 FA help at catcher, middle infield and right field should all be thought of a short term players each costing from 2-3m on a one year contract.  They will probably be acquired late in the off season when prices drop.   

So here is the current positional roster as I see it:

1B Davis

2B Valera or FA

SS Villar

3B Ruiz vs righties, Nunez vs lefties

C Wynn or FA

LF Mancini

CF Mullins vs righties,  Rickard vs lefties

RF FA 

DH Trumbo

Bench:  Valera or IF FA,   Ruiz or Nunez,   Wynn or FA Catcher,  Mullins or Rickard

Wilkerson competes with Valera at 2B in ST.   I give Valera the edge defensively.  

Stewart comes into to camp with something to prove but probably goes to the minor until July when Trumbo is traded, Mancini move to DH/1B and left field opens up.  

This all changes when Elias makes his next move.

Just my thoughts.  What do you think?

 

[interloper]

I love a good wildcard roster post. Goes well with the morning coffee.

[interloper]

Agree with pretty much everything here. My only thought is that if Hays impresses in ST, he could bump Rickard and serve as the other half of the CF platoon, with Rickard (or someone else - I'm not convinced Rickard sticks in this organization for much longer) serving as more of a 5th outfielder. 

Stewart appears to be somewhat blocked by Davis/Trumbo, and I'd love to get more a look at him in LF. He played well at the end of the season while Davis was getting benched. Moving Trumbo would help immensely from a roster-crunch perspective. 

[LookinUp]

Yeah, that list will change, but it's a good recap of where we are today. Pitching next?

[Rene88]

Great job as always Wildcard. Always love your posts and analysis. I will say this, it is going to be a sad and depressing team to watch for a while, LOL.

[Frobby]

I’m exhausted just reading wildcard’s post!   It is well thought out but I’ll worry about it after seeing what offseason moves we make and how spring training goes.    

[interloper]

It's interesting that Susac is still on the 40-man but I figure he will either be eventually DFA'd this offseason, or they will keep him to have another ST catcher. Buck always wanted at least 4, IIRC. If he's healthy, you might as well use him for a little while in ST. 

[Moose Milligan]

I agree with everything there, too.  That seems to be about where we are.  

I am hoping that they can get rid of one of Trumbo or Davis this offseason.  If they can get rid of both, it'd be a miracle.  

[bobmc]

Just now, Frobby said:

I’m exhausted just reading wildcard’s post!   It is well thought out but I’ll worry about it after seeing what offseason moves we make and how spring training goes.    

Yes agreed!  Just go back to curling up by the fire and reading a good book until pitchers and catchers report.  Once Bryan Brickhouse and Richie Martin are selected, we will be set for a while.    @wildcard has done the heavy lifting, thanks!

[oriole]

A lot will change over the next few months. I hope if they sign anyone for RF that it’s not someone that will clog the roster if Hays or Santander are doing well. Has Billy Hamilton signed anywhere yet? He’d be great...good defense and a good guy to have on your bench for pinch running. 

[wildbillhiccup]

20 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The roster is going to be fluid all off season and for that matter for several years.   Someone becomes available on the waiver wire like happened yesterday and it shifts the roster.   So as of now lets look at where the roster is and where it might be headed.  

The claiming of Rio Ruiz shows a few things.  1) One its a move for defense at 3B.   He has more range and a more consistent arm than Nunez.  2) He add a left-hand bat to the lineup.   3) His downside is though he hits  right-handed pitching well in the minors, he does not hit lefties very well at all.   4) My thought is that this could set up a platoon at 3B.    Ruiz vs righties, Nunez vs lefties.     We will see how that plays out. (Some really stupid comments of MASN All Access about Ruiz being a lefthanded thrower.  He is not.  He throws right-handed. Bats lefthanded.)

Elias said yesterday that Villar is a SS and will play there  a lot.   I think we have to keep in mind that Villar is probably not a long term player with the O's.   COTS  projects him to make 5m this coming season and that will go up in 2020.  He is eligible to be a  free agent  after the 2020 season.   He well probably be showcased throughout the first half to see if they can get a good prospect or two for him in July.   If he can show that he can handle SS and 2B well in the first  half that  helps his trade  value.   

Valera looks like he has good range at 2B.  Both he and Wilkerson came through the minors as 2B.   Either will probably be a long term answer at 2B but they could begin the 2019 season there.   Neither is that great at SS.   So the player that Elias needs that is not in the system right now is a SS that can take over in the 2nd half if Villar is traded.  That player will probably have to be versatile enough be play SS or 2B base well.

Wynn is probably a catcher on the roster to start the season but the O's will probably need to add another catcher.

Davis at 1B, Trumbo at DH, Mancini has to play and for now LF is his spot.  Not long term but until Trumbo is traded in July hopefully.   If Mancini is in LF then to have a decent outfield defense CF and RF has to have range.    Mullins in center is fine but he does not hit lefties.  That looks like another platoon at the moment.  Mullins and Rickard in CF.     Stewart does not fit real well in RF.  He doesn't have the arm and his range is nothing special.   Stewart has options.  Hays is the long term answer in RF but he will have to earn it in ST.  For projection purposes I think Hays will to start the year in the minors.  He is probably ready by mid season with any luck and the O's get another year of contract control if he does not come up until July..   RF looks like a spot for some FA help until then.

I know there is a lot of concern about Davis at 1B but he will probably get a shot to start the season with Mancini backing him up.   How long that lasts in anyone's guess.

 FA help at catcher, middle infield and right field should all be thought of a short term players each costing from 2-3m on a one year contract.  They will probably be acquired late in the off season when prices drop.   

So here is the current positional roster as I see it:

1B Davis

2B Valera or FA

SS Villar

3B Ruiz vs righties, Nunez vs lefties

C Wynn or FA

LF Mancini

CF Mullins vs righties,  Rickard vs lefties

RF FA 

Bench:  Valera or IF FA,   Ruiz or Nunez,   Wynn or FA Catcher,  Mullins or Rickard

Wilkerson competes with Valera at 2B in ST.   I give Valera the edge defensively.  

Stewart comes into to camp with something to prove but probably goes to the minor until July when Trumbo is traded, Mancini move to DH/1B and left field opens up.  

This all changes when Elias makes his next move.

Just my thoughts.  What do you think?

 

Good post! I'd personally like to see Sisco get another shot to prove his worth behind the dish. We're playing for the future and we need to find out if he's part of that or if it's time to move on. 

Do you have Trumbo penciled in as the primary DH? I'd like to see them sign a MI (ideally a SS so we can push Villar to 2B), but I really don't think there's a RF need. We have enough internal options, for better or worse. Otherwise looks good!

If we're making predictions I think they'll sign a MI, back end of the rotation SP, and possibly  veteran catcher and call it a day. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I agree with everything there, too.  That seems to be about where we are.  

I am hoping that they can get rid of one of Trumbo or Davis this offseason.  If they can get rid of both, it'd be a miracle.  

If Elias find a way to get rid of both then I'm going to start an online petition to legally change his name to Jesus. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, oriole said:

A lot will change over the next few months. I hope if they sign anyone for RF that it’s not someone that will clog the roster if Hays or Santander are doing well. Has Billy Hamilton signed anywhere yet? He’d be great...good defense and a good guy to have on your bench for pinch running. 

KC signed Hamilton yesterday. 

[bobmc]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

I agree with everything there, too.  That seems to be about where we are.  

I am hoping that they can get rid of one of Trumbo or Davis this offseason.  If they can get rid of both, it'd be a miracle.  

I have a little Winter Fantasy steaming on the stove and some of the lines read, "Slugger Chris Davis returned to previous form, giving up the smokeless tobacco, cutting down his K rate and upping his OBP.  The tandem of he and Mark Trumbo, who returned in mid-season to form a powerful platoon at 1B and DH, delivered blow after meaningful blow, battering both AL East and lesser MLB openers and closers alike."

More later.

[bobmc]

6 minutes ago, oriole said:

A lot will change over the next few months. I hope if they sign anyone for RF that it’s not someone that will clog the roster if Hays or Santander are doing well. Has Billy Hamilton signed anywhere yet? He’d be great...good defense and a good guy to have on your bench for pinch running. 

He gone to KC!