2019 Winter Meetings

[Can_of_corn]

If he's the perfect right fielder for a rebuilding team they should keep him. 

Three to four players including two high level prospects (one a pitcher).  That is more than the O's can afford.  

[section18]

I think we are going to find out in the coming weeks Mike and Sig don't value some of our prospects like others do. So don't be surprised if he moves some of our top ten in deals.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, section18 said:

I think we are going to find out in the coming weeks Mike and Sig don't value some of our prospects like others do. So don't be surprised if he moves some of our top ten in deals.

OK.

It still doesn't make sense to trade say Hall and three others for an outfielder.

[section18]

I read on a Seattle post DiPoto was looking for a veteran pitcher under control for several years. The huge park out there is always appealing to a pitcher. I also read on a Seattle post they would consider bringing back Trumbo with one year left.  We would add in some money to get out from under Cobb or Cashner's contracts. We save money 30-35 million in salary over the terms of their contracts with adding two veterans to the deal and two prospects. Which two prospects do you think Elias would give up for an All-Star RF? Cadyn Grenier and Luis Ortiz? We no longer have a need for Grenier. They want prospects and current roster players in a deal. Incidentally Grenier was interviewed on the Hot Stove show Thursday night and was asked about the Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman his former teammate and he raved about him.  Look for the Orioles to add him with our number one pick in June barring something unforeseen.

If not Grenier and Ortiz pick 2 from the list below;

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=bal

[mdbdotcom]

Cobb for Kemp is the kind of deal I would expect. O's save money over time and get a RF. Dodgers get a starting pitcher and reduce payroll next year, creating room financially and in the outfield for Harper.

[Luke-OH]

30 minutes ago, section18 said:

I read on a Seattle post DiPoto was looking for a veteran pitcher under control for several years. The huge park out there is always appealing to a pitcher. I also read on a Seattle post they would consider bringing back Trumbo with one year left.  We would add in some money to get out from under Cobb or Cashner's contracts. We save money 30-35 million in salary over the terms of their contracts with adding two veterans to the deal and two prospects. Which two prospects do you think Elias would give up for an All-Star RF? Cadyn Grenier and Luis Ortiz? We no longer have a need for Grenier. They want prospects and current roster players in a deal. Incidentally Grenier was interviewed on the Hot Stove show Thursday night and was asked about the Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman his former teammate and he raved about him.  Look for the Orioles to add him with our number one pick in June barring something unforeseen.

If not Grenier and Ortiz pick 2 from the list below;

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2018?list=bal

A few things.

First and foremost, the Orioles aren't going to trade prospects for MLB assests at this point. So there is zero chance they trade for Haniger. 

Second, what do you mean by "We no longer have a need for Grenier"? Seems like a nonsensical statement with zero evidence.

Third, are you implying that somehow Cobb, Trumbo, Grenier, Ortiz, and some cash would bring back Haniger? That's only true if the cash is like 30M+ and the Mariners are idiots.

Fourth, why would you be set on a draft pick before their final amateur season even begun? Rutschman is number one on my crude list currently, but there is no expectation that it's going to stay that why until June. 

 

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

Cobb for Kemp is the kind of deal I would expect. O's save money over time and get a RF. Dodgers get a starting pitcher and reduce payroll next year, creating room financially and in the outfield for Harper.

Cobb for Kemp is such a bad trade.   

The O's have their right fielder of the future in Austin Hays.   He could  put on a show in ST and make the O's think about starting the season with him in right field.  But its more likely he begins the season in the minors.  He is probably ready by July.  He turns 24 in July.  He will be qualified for a 7th year in July and it  will delay his salary arbitration a year.  Probably a good time to become a regular in the majors.

Kemp just blocks Hays and cost a lot of money.   No reason to do that.  The O's probably want a stop gap right field for the 1st half.  They may be willing be pay 3m for that stop gap RF.  On the trade market they were probably testing the market for Trumbo and Cashner.  Both are over paid right now.  If they had to kick in a few million to trade one of those two, I think they would. For a catcher or RF.

Cobb in a commodity.  The good FA starters are coming off the board rapidly.  Soon the offers for Cobb for prospects will be coming to Elias.  Will they be enough?  Does Elias believe he can get more with a good 1st half out of Cobb.?  I think that is likely.   But if the right prospects are offered he could be gone at any time.  He won't be traded cheaply.  Good starters cost a lot in prospects. But not for Kemp or any other highly paid RF.

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Cobb for Kemp is such a bad trade.   

The O's have their right fielder of the future in Austin Hays.   He could  put on a show in ST and make the O's think about starting the season with him in right field.  But its more likely he begins the season in the minors.  He is probably ready by July.  He turns 24 in July.  He will qualify for the 7th year in July and delay his salary arbitration a year.  Probably a good time to become a regular in the majors.

Kemp just blocks Hays and cost a lot of money.   No reason to do that.  The O's probably want a stop gap right field for the 1st half.  They may be willing be pay 3m for that stop gap RF.

Cobb in a commodity.  The good FA starter are coming off the board rapidly.  Soon the offers for Cobb for prospects will be coming to Elias.  Will they be enough?  Does Elias believe he can get more with a good 1st half out of Cobb.?  I think that is likely.   But if the right prospects are offered he could be gone at any time.   But not for Kemp or any other highly paid RF.

I hope you are correct.

[Luke-OH]

Just now, wildcard said:

Cobb for Kemp is such a bad trade.   

The O's have their right fielder of the future in Austin Hays.   He could  put on a show in ST and make the O's think about starting the season with him in right field.  But its more likely he begins the season in the minors.  He is probably ready by July.  He turns 24 in July.  He will qualify for the 7th year in July and delay his salary arbitration a year.  Probably a good time to become a regular in the majors.

Kemp just blocks Hays and cost a lot of money.   No reason to do that.  The O's probably want a stop gap right field for the 1st half.  They may be willing be pay 3m for that stop gap RF.

Cobb in a commodity.  The good FA starter are coming off the board rapidly.  Soon the offers for Cobb for prospects will be coming to Elias.  Will they be enough?  Does Elias believe he can get more with a good 1st half out of Cobb.?  I think that is likely.   But if the right prospects are offered he could be gone at any time.   But not for Kemp or any other highly paid RF.

Here are my Cobb thoughts. Not regarding trading Cobb for Kemp or another bad contract, just the idea of eating some cash and trading him now rather than waiting.

So Cobb will make 14M this year, it's possible that he will pitch better this year (and probably somewhat likely), but it's also possible he won't or he'll get hurt.

Let's say the O's can eat 12M and trade him for a FV 40 with some ceiling. Which seems reasonable, that would be 3/30M for Cobb and FV 40s are pretty common. 

If you are Elias, do you take the certainty of clearing 30M in future payroll obligations and bringing back a slightly interesting low minors piece or do you wait, pay him 8+ M (salary until traded) to pitch on a team where his performance really doesn't matter and hope he doesn't get hurt or decline in performance and stick you with the rest of the contract.

I see both sides of the argument, I just think it's a close call. If it's other people's money, then I wait, if it's my money, then I take the certainty I can get now. 

[Can_of_corn]

I'm worried that if they trade Cobb and Cashner that it will be difficult to eat those innings with the other options available.  I don't want the pitchers in the minors rushed since I think that had a lot to do with the team's difficulty in producing starting pitchers in the past.

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm worried that if they trade Cobb and Cashner that it will be difficult to eat those innings with the other options available.  I don't want the pitchers in the minors rushed since I think that had a lot to do with the team's difficulty in producing starting pitchers in the past.

It depends on how much bad you can stomach. I wouldn't trade both. Rogers, Means, Hess, Yac, Ramirez, Wright (if he's still around) and even Lucas Long should be able to eat some ugly innings to keep Akin, Tate, and Ortiz down for AAA experience. It wouldn't be pretty, but I'd be fine at throwing innings at those guys and seeing if one can take a step forward and present themselves as a rotation option. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

OK.

It still doesn't make sense to trade say Hall and three others for an outfielder.

I don't believe he will sell any prospect yet. And certainly not for MLB fodder. If he does, I'm not a fan of the style.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It depends on how much bad you can stomach. I wouldn't trade both. Rogers, Means, Hess, Yac, Ramirez, Wright (if he's still around) and even Lucas Long should be able to eat some ugly innings to keep Akin, Tate, and Ortiz down for AAA experience. It wouldn't be pretty, but I'd be fine at throwing innings at those guys and seeing if one can take a step forward and present themselves as a rotation option. 

Cashner is not really tradable yet. Cobb, I'd sell tomorrow. 

[connja]

I'd be happy if we went hard after Avasail Garcia.  He's only 27 and had a huge 2017 before down season last year.  

[weams]

13 minutes ago, connja said:

I'd be happy if we went hard after Avasail Garcia.  He's only 27 and had a huge 2017 before down season last year.  

Is he 600 k?