PECOTA projections are out

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I really tuned out last year so forgive the basic question, but D. J. Stewart looks like he's the new Jim Traber, right?

No mustache though.  

[wildcard]

This is not going to be a good offensive team but it not going to be a bad as they have them.

Villar  265/334/410/745  three year numbers

Nunez 275/336/445/781  2nd half numbers

Trumbo  249/305/465/770  three year numbers

Mancini 268/319/458/777 there year numbers

I do think one of the things they point out is true.   Alberto is probably going to out hit Martin by a lot.  Alberto also have good defensive numbers at SS.  I think he is going to play SS a lot more then many project.

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, theocean said:

Mets are a pretty good team if the pitching staff stays healthy. DeGromm/Wheeler/Syndergaard with that bullpen is no joke.

If it worked for Isringhausen, Pulsipher, and Wilson...

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I really tuned out last year so forgive the basic question, but D. J. Stewart looks like he's the new Jim Traber, right?

77 OPS+, 279 OBP.  I sure hope not.

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m really interested to see how the young outfielders shake out this year.   Mullins, Stewart, Diaz, Hays and McKenna — lots of moving parts there.   For what it’s worth, PECOTA/BP project:

Mullins .688 OPS in 608 PA

Stewart .669 OPS in 443 PA

Hays .670 OPS in 274 PA

Diaz and McKenna not in the majors.

Personally I think the Mullins projection is pretty solid if he plays a lot against LHP.    It will not surprise me if he’s platooned more and ends up with a .700+ OPS in 500ish at bats.

Stewart’s playing time looks reasonable but I think he’ll hover at .700 OPS or maybe slightly above.

I don’t think Hays sees 274 PA this year, especially if he’s posting a .670 OPS.    I think he only gets called up if he’s back to mashing in the minors, and if he does, he might get 100 PA and hopefully exceed .700 OPS.

 

I think you mean if Mullins doesn't play a lot against LHP

[nate22]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think you mean if Mullins doesn't play a lot against LHP

I think he meant Mullins' projection is accurate if he plays against LHP but higher if he's platooned.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, nate22 said:

I think he meant Mullins' projection is accurate if he plays against LHP but higher if he's platooned.

OK,  got it.  Thanks.

[nate22]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

OK,  got it.  Thanks.

Actually, I just reread it. I think he meant that Mullins' projection is good if he plays against LHP. Meaning their projection isn't bad for him.

[FuManchu]

I am stunned that anyone could come up with a system that assigns a positive defensive rating to Mancini in the OF.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, FuManchu said:

I am stunned that anyone could come up with a system that assigns a positive defensive rating to Mancini in the OF.

They got Bordick to do it.

[Beef Supreme]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Alberto is probably going to out hit Martin by a lot.

What gives you that idea? There is nothing in his statistics that would suggest this.

[calebelias]

D.J. Stewart has had an incredible OBP every step of the way, including a small sample size last year in the majors. I’m not  guessing wether he will succeed or not but a projected .292 OBP ???  I’d be shocked if he was under .330.  Guy has a great eye.

[wildcard]

28 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

What gives you that idea? There is nothing in his statistics that would suggest this.

There is a whole thread on it.  

 

[MurphDogg]

5 minutes ago, calebelias said:

D.J. Stewart has had an incredible OBP every step of the way, including a small sample size last year in the majors. I’m not  guessing wether he will succeed or not but a projected .292 OBP ???  I’d be shocked if he was under .330.  Guy has a great eye.

Yeah, I also don't think he will be 10 runs below average with the glove. I don't think he is any worse than Mancini out there. He has a "bad body" so at first glance you assume he is a butcher defensively.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

77 OPS+, 279 OBP.  I sure hope not.

Rochester is no Norfolk, but Traber hit better during his age 24 AAA season.