PECOTA projections are out

[Luke-OH]

8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

In their first 17 career MLB games, Stewart actually out OPS’d Mullins by 20 points!  

Just goes to show what perception does. Mullins is the underdog, 13th rd draft pick. Stewart is the former first round bust. Mullins will be the next face of the O’s and CF for the next 6 years. We need to sign a vet COF because we can’t trot Stewart out there on a 100 loss team all year. 

This assumes 17 MLB games of sample means anything at all.

[Il BuonO]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Also Stewart was better in left than Mullins was in center.  After us hearing what a butcher Stewart was and what a plus glove Mullins had.

I haven’t seen anything ‘plus’ about his glove work yet.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

I haven’t seen anything ‘plus’ about his glove work yet.

For the record, Stewart does not have the reputation as a butcher.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

For the record, Stewart does not have the reputation as a butcher.   

I was talking about a segment of fans here at OH.

Also KLaw projects him as a 1B/DH.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was talking about a segment of fans here at OH.

Also KLaw projects him as a 1B/DH.

My impression is that (1) Stewart is a competent corner OF, but (2) Díaz and Hays are both better defenders and have stronger arms.    I think if those two live up to expectations, that will force Stewart into being a backup OF or getting some at bats at 1B/DH.   But it’s not because he’s a butcher defensively, it’s because we may have better options.  

For me. I’m just going to wait and see how it plays out.    I could see Stewart as a Seth Smith quality player (without the vulnerability to LHP), or he could be something substantially less than that.    We’ll find out.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

My impression is that (1) Stewart is a competent corner OF, but (2) Díaz and Hays are both better defenders and have stronger arms.    I think if those two live up to expectations, that will force Stewart into being a backup OF or getting some at bats at 1B/DH.   But it’s not because he’s a butcher defensively, it’s because we may have better options.  

For me. I’m just going to wait and see how it plays out.    I could see Stewart as a Seth Smith quality player (without the vulnerability to LHP), or he could be something substantially less than that.    We’ll find out.

I agree.

[Il BuonO]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

For the record, Stewart does not have the reputation as a butcher.   

I was referring to Mullins. Stewart looks better than advertised w the glove, albeit only in LF. His arm won’t play in RF.

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

I was referring to Mullins. Stewart looks better than advertised w the glove, albeit only in LF. His arm won’t play in RF.

Fangraphs rates his arm a 50.   Not ideal for RF, but I wouldn’t necesssrily say “won’t play.”  They give Díaz a 55 and Hays a 60.   

[Il BuonO]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Fangraphs rates his arm a 50.   Not ideal for RF, but I wouldn’t necesssrily say “won’t play.”  They give Díaz a 55 and Hays a 60.   

So, better than advertised. Though it seems a lack of speed and range are the main inaccuracies I read here.

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

So, better than advertised. Though it seems a lack of speed and range are the main inaccuracies I read here.

Honestly, I haven’t seen enough of Stewart to evaluate his defense.    I mostly rely on knowledgeable people who have seen him a lot and graded him.    My overall impression is, much better than Mancini, probably not as good as Joey Rickard.    Relatively sure-handed, throws accurately but just average arm strength, routes OK but not great, speed about average.   He’s not a guy I’d want in RF on a contending team, but he’s not going to embarrass you out there.    Hays or Díaz will supplant him, if they can hit major league pitching.  

[Il BuonO]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, I haven’t seen enough of Stewart to evaluate his defense.    I mostly rely on knowledgeable people who have seen him a lot and graded him.    My overall impression is, much better than Mancini, probably not as good as Joey Rickard.    Relatively sure-handed, throws accurately but just average arm strength, routes OK but not great, speed about average.   He’s not a guy I’d want in RF on a contending team, but he’s not going to embarrass you out there.    Hays or Díaz will supplant him, if they can hit major league pitching.  

Agreed, which is why I first said he’s a better fit in LF.

[Babypowder]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Honestly, I haven’t seen enough of Stewart to evaluate his defense.    I mostly rely on knowledgeable people who have seen him a lot and graded him.    My overall impression is, much better than Mancini, probably not as good as Joey Rickard.    Relatively sure-handed, throws accurately but just average arm strength, routes OK but not great, speed about average.   He’s not a guy I’d want in RF on a contending team, but he’s not going to embarrass you out there.    Hays or Díaz will supplant him, if they can hit major league pitching.  

By Statcast sprint speed Stewart was at 27.6 f/s, which puts him in the 63rd percentile in MLB. He would be just about at the median of qualified RFers last year, between Jason Heyward and Mason Williams.

I think he's likely in the realm of average as a defender, even dealing with the less than ideal arm strength.