Who are the 25 O's on the Opening Day Roster

[jrobb21613]

Catcher

Sisco

Wynns

Infield 

Davis 

Villar

Martin

Nunez

Jackson

Rios

OF

Mullins

Mancini 

Stewart

Young JR.

DH

Trumbo

Starters

Bundy

Cobb

Cashner

Karns

Tate

Relievers

Givens

Blier

Castro

Ramierz

Wright

Araujo

Hess

 

[LookinUp]

46 minutes ago, Philip said:

Sisco is BAD. Send him away.

I know he had a bad year last year, and I've read the recent scouting reports, but I'm not ready to go here yet. Sisco has done more with the bat than most catchers in the minors. Yes, he was apparently over matched last year. So what? Who's to say he can't get better? Who's to say his inability to hit better pitching can't be corrected with something technical, like his load, or quick twitch exercises or even eye exams?

I'm not predicting Sisco ever breaks out. I am saying that dumping a guy who showed a much better hit tool than many prospects and produced through the minors like he did, when his value is at a nadir, is short sighted. I'd rather work him hard and try to push him to get better. No way I'm giving up on Sisco before a new group of player development staff gets their hands on him.

[HowAboutThat]

5 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I know he had a bad year last year, and I've read the recent scouting reports, but I'm not ready to go here yet. Sisco has done more with the bat than most catchers in the minors. Yes, he was apparently over matched last year. So what? Who's to say he can't get better? Who's to say his inability to hit better pitching can't be corrected with something technical, like his load, or quick twitch exercises or even eye exams?

I'm not predicting Sisco ever breaks out. I am saying that dumping a guy who showed a much better hit tool than many prospects and produced through the minors like he did, when his value is at a nadir, is short sighted. I'd rather work him hard and try to push him to get better. No way I'm giving up on Sisco before a new group of player development staff gets their hands on him.

 I understand your point, and if it weren’t for his strike at rate was still astronomically high, and his defense is so bad, I would not be so eager to cut bait. 

The guy at Camden Depot pointed out that once opposing pitchers got a book on him, He was unable to adjust, and he was swinging at everything. The hardest thing to do between minors and majors is transfer hitting success.

The team is going to be bad this year, so if they want to just see what he can do, I suppose that’s OK, but everything Points to him just having been a bad choice 

[LookinUp]

Yeah, everything I read aligns with what you're saying. 

My hope, without empirical evidence, is that the entire Orioles franchise basically became poisoned fruit over the last couple of years. I'm a big believer that guys will optimize their talents when they're put in the right position to do so. 

I'm hoping that what was an organization were guys tried to succeed despite their environment will become one where guys will succeed because of their environment. It will take time, but Sisco is one of many who might (in theory) be able to reverse his prospect trajectory with the right adjustments.

[DrungoHazewood]

43 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I know he had a bad year last year, and I've read the recent scouting reports, but I'm not ready to go here yet. Sisco has done more with the bat than most catchers in the minors. Yes, he was apparently over matched last year. So what? Who's to say he can't get better? Who's to say his inability to hit better pitching can't be corrected with something technical, like his load, or quick twitch exercises or even eye exams?

I'm not predicting Sisco ever breaks out. I am saying that dumping a guy who showed a much better hit tool than many prospects and produced through the minors like he did, when his value is at a nadir, is short sighted. I'd rather work him hard and try to push him to get better. No way I'm giving up on Sisco before a new group of player development staff gets their hands on him.

I would give Sisco a lot more rope.  Many, many catchers had random years where they suddenly just can't hit. Probably because they took a foul tip or a bat or a collision in April and it just never got 100%.  Ted Simmons... .880 one year, .632 the next, then .799 and .569.  Carlton Fisk went .808-.600-.782.  Charles Johnson in his prime had years in the .600s, .700s, .800s, and .900s.  Gary Carter was 2nd in the ROY in '75, had a .596 in '76.  Kendall and Posada had big swings.

Sisco will probably hit a little, unless he just can't handle the load of catching and they don't move him somewhere else until it's too late.

[LookinUp]

Progression certainly isn't linear. I just wish I understood it better. Slumps are very real things that aren't always the result of purely mechanical deficiencies or injuries. A lot of hitting is about being comfortable and balanced within the timing of the pitch. When my timing was off, for whatever reason, I had to change my swing just to make contact. It totally sapped me of my power. No scout would have ever wanted me, based on scouting my swing, when I was "off" at the plate. When I was on, I drove the ball with power and didn't strike out much. 

Those numbers show how often players go through stretches just like Sisco did last year. You just hope he's one of the ones who can rebound and not one of the ones who truly does have an inability to hit at the highest levels of the sport. 

[PaulFolk]

On 2/11/2019 at 2:53 AM, wildcard said:

Paul,   You ran down the options but you did not pick 25 for OD.  I would like to see your list. 

Here's my best guess.

Starters:

C Sisco, 1B Davis, 2B Villar, SS Martin, 3B Nunez, LF Mancini, CF Mullins, RF Stewart, DH Trumbo

Bench:

C Wynns, IF Jackson, IF Alberto, OF Rickard

Rotation:

Bundy, Cashner, Cobb, Karns, Hess

Bullpen:

Givens, Bleier, Castro, Scott, Fry, Yacabonis, Araujo

[Tony-OH]

4 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I know he had a bad year last year, and I've read the recent scouting reports, but I'm not ready to go here yet. Sisco has done more with the bat than most catchers in the minors. Yes, he was apparently over matched last year. So what? Who's to say he can't get better? Who's to say his inability to hit better pitching can't be corrected with something technical, like his load, or quick twitch exercises or even eye exams?

I'm not predicting Sisco ever breaks out. I am saying that dumping a guy who showed a much better hit tool than many prospects and produced through the minors like he did, when his value is at a nadir, is short sighted. I'd rather work him hard and try to push him to get better. No way I'm giving up on Sisco before a new group of player development staff gets their hands on him.

What do you like about Sisco?

Is it his below average defense across the board?
Is it high strikeout rate above AA?
Is it his falling BB rate above AA?
Is it his astronomically high K rate in the majors and WHIFF rate? 35.9% WHIFF vs 24% MLB avg
Is it his lack of power? xSLG .308 vs .399 MLB avg
Is it his lack of leadership?
Is it his lack of in zone contact? 70.5% vs 83.2% MLB avg
Is it his horrid chase contact? 36.4% vs 60.2 % MLB avg
Is it his inability to not any pitch effectively last year? .204 xBA vs fastballs, .122 xBa vs breaking balls, and .185 xBA vs offspeed? 

What part of his game do you expect to get better and why? I'm not saying he can't improve, but the numbers are pretty scary.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chance-sisco-642082?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

The only thing he has going for him in all of the numbers is an average exit velocity but his misses contact so much it doesn't play.

I'm only pointing this out because I'm not sure that people really understand how bad the numbers looks for Sisco. We're not talking about guy who struggled a bit, we're talking about guy who was dominated and doesn't have the statcast numbers to suggest major improvement.

He will need to seriously defy the odds to become a good major league player at this point.

[LookinUp]

That's a damning post. I don't know how to examine any trends in those numbers. Are they all from a single season at AAA and in the majors or have these numbers always stunk, even while he was producing at the lower levels? 

And what's the story with his "lack of leadership?" That's news to me. I'm not questioning that, but it sounds like you just broke news that he's a character problem in addition to a guy who may not be good enough to make the majors.

[Edit: the scouting report on the page you linked is much more positive than your post. Still has him as a 60 hit tool, overall 50.]

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

What do you like about Sisco?

Is it his below average defense across the board?
Is it high strikeout rate above AA?
Is it his falling BB rate above AA?
Is it his astronomically high K rate in the majors and WHIFF rate? 35.9% WHIFF vs 24% MLB avg
Is it his lack of power? xSLG .308 vs .399 MLB avg
Is it his lack of leadership?
Is it his lack of in zone contact? 70.5% vs 83.2% MLB avg
Is it his horrid chase contact? 36.4% vs 60.2 % MLB avg
Is it his inability to not any pitch effectively last year? .204 xBA vs fastballs, .122 xBa vs breaking balls, and .185 xBA vs offspeed? 

What part of his game do you expect to get better and why? I'm not saying he can't improve, but the numbers are pretty scary.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chance-sisco-642082?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

The only thing he has going for him in all of the numbers is an average exit velocity but his misses contact so much it doesn't play.

I'm only pointing this out because I'm not sure that people really understand how bad the numbers looks for Sisco. We're not talking about guy who struggled a bit, we're talking about guy who was dominated and doesn't have the statcast numbers to suggest major improvement.

He will need to seriously defy the odds to become a good major league player at this point.

I’m not saying Sisco will succeed, but I think you’re being too pessimistic in completely writing him off considering how the guy played through AA.    But we’ll see.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

That's a damning post. I don't know how to examine any trends in those numbers. Are they all from a single season at AAA and in the majors or have these numbers always stunk, even while he was producing at the lower levels? 

And what's the story with his "lack of leadership?" That's news to me. I'm not questioning that, but it sounds like you just broke news that he's a character problem in addition to a guy who may not be good enough to make the majors.

I wouldn't say it's a character problem, but reports of him not being too active in hunting out information to help himself and his pitchers have come from multiple sources. Not a big "want to" guy who is more "Californian cool" than a baseball rat who searches for ways to better himself and his pitchers. Some of it could be immaturity, but did you ever ask yourself why Buck buried him when the team was going nowhere?

[Tony-OH]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not saying Sisco will succeed, but I think you’re being too pessimistic in completely writing him off considering how the guy played through AA.    But we’ll see.

One, I didn't completely write him off and say he should be released. Two, I just pointed to the facts (stats) to back up my assessment.

His stats up to AA mean nothing at this point. You can write a very long book on players who maxed out at AA. 

Considering the options, I'd see if Sisco is able to make some kind of adjustment or see if the new data he will have access to will help him, but the fact that he was so dominated (like historically bad through his first 150 major league PAs) by major league pitching does not bode well, especially since he's not a plus defender at an important defensive position.  

[LookinUp]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

One, I didn't completely write him off and say he should be released. Two, I just pointed to the facts (stats) to back up my assessment.

His stats up to AA mean nothing at this point. You can write a very long book on players who maxed out at AA. 

Considering the options, I'd see if Sisco is able to make some kind of adjustment or see if the new data he will have access to will help him, but the fact that he was so dominated (like historically bad through his first 150 major league PAs) by major league pitching does not bode well, especially since he's not a plus defender at an important defensive position.  

FWIW, I'm not disagreeing with (or even questioning) anything you've posted, but none of it is reason for me to give up hope on the player. That's really my only point, which another poster was saying earlier in the thread.

Sisco is still a former pretty highly rated prospect who has put up actual hitting numbers in the minors. That may mean little to you at this point, but I view that in light of a couple of things I said a couple of things earlier in this thread.

1) I'm hoping that the entire organization was essentially poisoned fruit before the new leadership this year. This is blind hope that with a better player development approach, our talent will be systematically better than they've performed over the last couple of years.

2) I don't want to give up on a highly rated guy before the new guys get their hands on him.

3) I didn't say this earlier, but if he wasn't a baseball rat, I sure hope someone gets through to him and he becomes one. His whole future depends on it. Hopefully the new crew can engage him in ways the last guys couldn't for whatever reason.

[Tx Oriole]

On 2/11/2019 at 2:15 AM, wildcard said:

Here is my 25.

1B - Davis

2B - Villar

SS - Martin

3B - Nunez

C - Wynns

LF - Mancini

CF - Mullins

RF- Jones on a 1/3m contract.  He waves  his 10/5 rights.  

DH- Trumbo

Bench - Perez, Rickard,  Jackson and Alberto

Stewart and Hays  optioned to begin the season.

Perez and Jones added to the 40 man roster.   Hart and Wright are DFA'd, clear waivers and are outrighted to Norfolk.

Sucre opts out.

Starter - Cobb, Bundy, Hess, Cashner, Karns

Relievers - Givens, Bleier, Castro, Fry, Kline, Yacabonis, Araujo

Kine shows better command than Scott.  Scott optioned to begin the season.

I sure hope they don't sign AJ. Great guy. But it's time to see what the younger players can do. Rebuilding team. No place for AJ. IMO 

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Tx Oriole said:

I sure hope they don't sign AJ. Great guy. But it's time to see what the younger players can do. Rebuilding team. No place for AJ. IMO 

Agree 100%.