Small sample sizes

[ChuckS]

I don't remember so many people getting this carried way in previous years over such microscopic sample sizes in a Spring Training.  Maybe it's because we had more established players, but you have posters making declarations on who is going to make the team over 20 Spring Training at bats.  

At the end of the day, I think it's going to come down to where these guys are in their development and what they did last year over a full major league or minor league season rather than how how they look in Spring Training.  

Diaz, Hays, and Santander have all looked great in limited Spring Training at bats but they all also struggled to some degree at Double A last year.  I just can't imagine many scenarios where any of them break with the big league club.   And considering the state of the franchise there is no reason at all to rush them or even risk rushing them.  If they perform well in Norfolk and Bowie they will be back up soon enough. 

[SteveA]

Just now, ChuckS said:

I don't remember so many people getting this carried way in previous years over such microscopic sample sizes in a Spring Training.  Maybe it's because we had more established players, but you have posters making declarations on who is going to make the team over 20 Spring Training at bats.  

At the end of the day, I think it's going to come down to where these guys are in their development and what they did last year over a full major league or minor league season more so than how they show in Spring Training.  Diaz, Hays, and Santander have all looked great in limited Spring Training at bats but they all struggled to some degree at Double A last year.  I just can't imagine many scenarios where any of them break with the big league club.   Especially considering the state of the franchise and there is no reason at all to rush them or even risk rushing them.  If they perform well in Norfolk or Bowie they will be back up soon enough. 

Actually a lot of people who are thrilled with the start of a guy like Diaz, small sample size though it is, AREN'T saying he will make the team out of spring training.   It's generally accepted that he will go to the minors, most likely Bowie.   I see very little declarations about someone making the team based on small sample size results.   I do see a lot of happiness about the future of a guy based on small sample size results, and that is certainly dubious.

I agree... guys are going to make the team or not based on their stage of development and whether the braintrust thinks they are ready for the majors or not.   (The one exception might be the #4/#5 starter spots, where we might not have anyone who fits the definition of being "ready" to be a starting pitcher in the majors.   But SOMEONE has to start those games).

[ChuckS]

7 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Actually a lot of people who are thrilled with the start of a guy like Diaz, small sample size though it is, AREN'T saying he will make the team out of spring training.   It's generally accepted that he will go to the minors, most likely Bowie.   I see very little declarations about someone making the team based on small sample size results.   I do see a lot of happiness about the future of a guy based on small sample size results, and that is certainly dubious.

I agree... guys are going to make the team or not based on their stage of development and whether the braintrust thinks they are ready for the majors or not.   (The one exception might be the #4/#5 starter spots, where we might not have anyone who fits the definition of being "ready" to be a starting pitcher in the majors.   But SOMEONE has to start those games).

The pitchers being looked at for #4/#5 starter spots have all pitched well over a considerable period time in Triple A.  Hess, Rogers, Means, and Ramirez don't need more time in the minors.  They are what they are going to be, for better or worse. 

More than can be said for the outfielders that some people want to plug into the OD lineup. 

[Tx Oriole]

38 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I don't remember so many people getting this carried way in previous years over such microscopic sample sizes in a Spring Training.  Maybe it's because we had more established players, but you have posters making declarations on who is going to make the team over 20 Spring Training at bats.  

At the end of the day, I think it's going to come down to where these guys are in their development and what they did last year over a full major league or minor league season over how how they look in Spring Training.  

Diaz, Hays, and Santander have all looked great in limited Spring Training at bats but they all also struggled to some degree at Double A last year.  I just can't imagine many scenarios where any of them break with the big league club.   And considering the state of the franchise there is no reason at all to rush them or even risk rushing them.  If they perform well in Norfolk and Bowie they will be back up soon enough. 

I'd start them with the big club. 

[Bahama O's Fan]

I realize that it's all spring training but I would rather them be playing well than not to be.

[Frobby]

In addition to small sample size, they’re facing rusty major leaguers who are “working on stuff” and AA/AAA guys.    I usually start paying attention to how guys do after the first 15 games.    That’s around the time the starters are trying to last 5 innings and a lot of the guys off the 40-man roster have been sent back to MiL camp. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

In addition to small sample size, they’re facing rusty major leaguers who are “working on stuff” and AA/AAA guys.    I usually start paying attention to how guys do after the first 15 games.    That’s around the time the starters are trying to last 5 innings and a lot of the guys off the 40-man roster have been sent back to MiL camp. 

I agree with this.  After Sunday's game and another cut by most teams the last 15 games will begin.

But will Mullins hit better against tougher competition? 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree with this.  After Sunday's game and another cut by most teams the last 15 games will begin.

But will Mullins hit better against tougher competition? 

I don’t think any player hits better against tougher competition in the long run.   But for 2-3 weeks a player can be hot or cold regardless of the level of competition.  

[ChuckS]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think any player hits better against tougher competition in the long run.   But for 2-3 weeks a player can be hot or cold regardless of the level of competition.  

Exactly.  Mullins is not on the roster bubble.  He will make the team.  A few good or bad weeks at the plate in ST is not going to change that. 

Now if it's mid-May and he's hitting .200 and Hays is tearing it up in Double A or Triple A, maybe you see a roster change. 

[Frobby]

Just now, ChuckS said:

Exactly.  Mullins is not on the roster bubble.  He will make the team.  A few good or bad weeks at the plate in ST is not going to change that. 

Put it this way, it won’t be stats that decide this.    I suppose if Mullins looked completely helpless he could be sent down.  But I doubt that happens.  

[jrobb21613]

I think there’s a greater chance of guys who aren’t even on the roster yet who currently play for other orginazations making the team then either if those guys. Once teams start trimming there rosters down I expect us to be quiet active and hopefully add some quality pieces that will help allow for these guys and others to go down to the minors and continue their development . It’s my opinion they need to prove themselves in the minors first regardless of what they do this spring and of course I believe we have service time issue that must be considered as well with both Diaz and Hays.

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think any player hits better against tougher competition in the long run.   But for 2-3 weeks a player can be hot or cold regardless of the level of competition.  

Mullins has two months in the majors.  In one he hit good and one he hit bad.  He is not an established player.  There is little reason to believe that he has an edge on hitting major league pitching.

[Frobby]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

Mullins has two months in the majors.  In one he hit good and one he hit bad.  He is not an established player.  There is little reason to believe that he has an edge on hitting major league pitching.

Who said that he did?    And an edge over who?    I don’t follow what you are saying.    

My point is simply this: the fact that Mullins has hit .174/.240/.391 this spring in 25 PA against rusty pitchers and AA/AAA guys doesn’t necessarily tell me that he’ll do worse than that in the second half of spring training when the competition starts to get tougher.    The sample size simply isn’t enough to be meaningful.    

At the same time, for the players who have done very well so far, the fact that, for example, Diaz has hit .385/.395/.615 in 26 PA doesn’t tell me he’s ready for the majors, for two reasons.    One, it’s a very small sample.    Two, he’s not facing the quality of pitching you see in the major league regular season.   

With all that said, of course I’m encouraged by Diaz’s performance and hoping Mullins will hit better in the second half of ST.   But I do think Mullins is highly likely to head north with the big club and that Diaz and Hays likely won’t.    

[sportsfan8703]

My simple take is that it seems like the “prospects” are all pretty much hitting well and getting a lot of the early PT. Just seems like they’re playing more than a lot of the “vets” and stop gap type players. 

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Who said that he did?    And an edge over who?    I don’t follow what you are saying.    

My point is simply this: the fact that Mullins has hit .174/.240/.391 this spring in 25 PA against rusty pitchers and AA/AAA guys doesn’t necessarily tell me that he’ll do worse than that in the second half of spring training when the competition starts to get tougher.    The sample size simply isn’t enough to be meaningful.    

At the same time, for the players who have done very well so far, the fact that, for example, Diaz has hit .385/.395/.615 in 26 PA doesn’t tell me he’s ready for the majors, for two reasons.    One, it’s a very small sample.    Two, he’s not facing the quality of pitching you see in the major league regular season.   

With all that said, of course I’m encouraged by Diaz’s performance and hoping Mullins will hit better in the second half of ST.   But I do think Mullins is highly likely to head north with the big club and that Diaz and Hays likely won’t.    

IMO the fight for centerfield is Mullins and Hays.   Mullins not hitting well in camp after a poor Sept leaves him vulnerable to be optioned.  Hays is tearing it up offensive and playing well defensively in center.   Mullins has 52 days in the majors.  Hays has 34 days in the majors.  Days in the majors will probably not be a deciding factor on who makes the team between he two of them on OD.