Ryan McKenna 2019

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

It absolutely does create more holes which is why the strikeouts are up at every level of baseball. The thing is, the analytics approach is that the net gain of power offsets the drop in average and rise in strikeouts.

I'm not sure it's a cookie cutter approach though and that's what worries me a bit. After talking with some scouts, they believe McKenna and Diaz are two guys this approach hurt.

There are things to like about McKenna tools wise, but he's got a lot of holes in that swing and he's either struggling to pick up spin or he's selling out too early which leaves him vulnerable to breaking and off speed pitches.

 

I completely agree with the bolded. The first part is a generalization about analytics. Power can offset a drop in average and rise in k's for certain profiles, but the power has to be real for the math to work. As you and others have pointed out, McKenna doesn't seem to have that power.

I'm a little surprised on Diaz though. Maybe I'm looking at him through orange colored glasses, but in between injuries, I think he really started to impress by the end of this year. IDK. Maybe it's a selective memory that I have. I'll look forward to seeing what you guys write up in more depth.

[Frobby]

21 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I completely agree with the bolded. The first part is a generalization about analytics. Power can offset a drop in average and rise in k's for certain profiles, but the power has to be real for the math to work. As you and others have pointed out, McKenna doesn't seem to have that power.

I'm a little surprised on Diaz though. Maybe I'm looking at him through orange colored glasses, but in between injuries, I think he really started to impress by the end of this year. IDK. Maybe it's a selective memory that I have. I'll look forward to seeing what you guys write up in more depth.

Just based off watchIng a few at bats this spring, I’d certainly say that Diaz has the ability to hit the ball a long way when he connects.   From everything I’ve read, he’s not expected to be a huge power guy in the majors, but he certainly profiles to have more power than McKenna.    
 

From a developmental standpoint, I think it’s arguable that even though launch angle becomes important, the first order of business is to learn how to make hard contact consistently.    Once you’ve mastered that, then worry about launch angle and making power/contact tradeoffs.     That’s probably why you often hear that power is the last tool to develop.    It’s not that the raw power wasn’t there, but there are other tools that need to be polished first, at least for most players.   

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, vatech1994 said:

He was added to the 40 man as most of us expected.

I think this upcoming year is crucial for McKenna.    He’s flashed tools but generally has been an inconsistent performer.    If he doesn’t make significant progress this season, he could be on the outside looking in when next year’s 40 man roster is set.   

[Enjoy Terror]

Was McKenna added because he could be taken in the AAA phase?

Minor league teams can also participate in the draft. AAA teams can draft any player eligible from AA for $24,000 (doubled from $12,000 in 2016). Players chosen in the minor league part of the draft do not need to return to the original teams for any reason.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Rule_5_Draft

[makoman]

38 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Was McKenna added because he could be taken in the AAA phase?

 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Rule_5_Draft

I know the minor league phase has changed a little, but in the past teams could protect something like 38 players (in addition to the 40 man roster) from both the AAA and AA phases. I'd imagine it's still similar 

[Enjoy Terror]

Just now, makoman said:

I know the minor league phase has changed a little, but in the past teams could protect something like 38 players (in addition to the 40 man roster) from both the AAA and AA phases. I'd imagine it's still similar 

Interesting. They don't usually reveal that information about who is protected. I guess that's why I've never heard of it.

[7Mo]

4 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

Interesting. They don't usually reveal that information about who is protected. I guess that's why I've never heard of it.

Looks like there's more activity in the AAA phase than the MLB phase:

Major League phase
Round 1
1. Orioles: SS Richie Martin (A's No. 12 prospect)
2. Royals: RHP Sam McWilliams (Rays)
3. White Sox: RHP Jordan Romano (Blue Jays No. 28) -- traded to Rangers
4. Marlins: RHP Riley Ferrell (Astros No. 17)
5. Tigers: RHP Reed Garrett (Rangers)
6. Reds:  1B/3B Connor Joe (Dodgers)
7. Rangers: RHP Chris Ellis (Cardinals) -- traded to Royals
8. Giants: LHP Travis Bergen (Blue Jays)
9. Blue Jays: RHP Elvis Luciano (Royals No. 23)
10. Mets: RHP Kyle Dowdy (Indians)
11. Phillies: 2B/SS Drew Jackson (Dodgers No. 19) -- traded to Orioles
12. D-backs: RHP Nick Green (Yankees)
13. Mariners: RHP Brandon Brennan (Rockies)
Round 2
14. Giants: OF Drew Ferguson (Astros)
Triple-A phase
Round 1
1. Orioles: RHP Taylor Grover (Reds)
2. Royals: C Chris Rabago (Yankees)
3. White Sox: 1B Jordan George (Pirates) 
4. Tigers: CF Tyler Hill (Red Sox)
5. Padres:  RHP Cristofer Melendez (White Sox) -- traded to Pirates
6. Rangers: RHP Jeffeson Medina (Orioles)
7. Giants: 3B Peter Maris (Rays)
8. Blue Jays: RHP David Garner (Cubs) 
9. Mets: LF Braxton Lee (Marlins No. 29)
10. Twins:  RHP Dusten Knight (Giants) 
11. Phillies: RHP Gilmael Troya  (Yankees)
12. Angels: RHP Matt Esparza (Indians)
13. D-backs: OF Jeffrey Baez (Giants)
14. Nationals: CF Chuck Taylor (Mariners) 
15. Pirates: OF Randolph Gassaway (Orioles)
16. Cardinals:  RHP John Fasola (Rangers) 
17. Braves: RHP Jason Creasy (D-backs)
18. Rays: RHP Ryan Thompson (Astros)
19. Indians: LHP Yapson Gomez (Cubs)  
20. Cubs: LHP Luis Lugo (Royals)
21. Brewers: SS Julio Garcia (Angels) 
22. A's: 2B Corban Joseph (Orioles)
23. Yankees: RHP Adonis De La Cruz (Mariners) 
24. Astros: C Alejandro Flores (Nationals)
25. Red Sox: RHP Anyelo Gómez (Yankees)
Round 2
26. Giants: LHP Sam Moll (Blue Jays)
27. Mets: RHP Chris Mazza (Mariners)
28. Pirates: RHP Winston Nicacio (Cardinals) 
29. Cardinals: SS Alberto Triunfel (Angels)
30. Braves:  RHP Rafael De Paula (Reds) 
31. Rays: RHP Ian Gardeck (Giants)
32. Indians: 1B Wilson Garcia (Orioles)
33. Cubs: C Rafelin Lorenzo (Pirates) 
34. Brewers: C Alexander Alvarez (Rays)
35. A's: CF Mark Payton (Yankees) 
36. Red Sox: RHP Andrew Schwaab (Tigers)
Round 3
37. Mets: C Mitch Ghelfi (Angels)
38. Braves: SS Riley Unroe (Angels)
39. Rays: RHP Cristofer Ogando (D-backs) 
40. Cubs: RHP Alexander Vargas (Yankees)
41. A's: 1B Anthony Miller (Indians)
Round 4
42. Rays: RHP Hector Figueroa (Indians) 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2018-rule-5-draft-results-c301780782

[Enjoy Terror]

Just now, 7Mo said:

Looks like there's more activity in the AAA phase than the MLB phase:

I know about the AAA phase, it's the protected players I don't know about.

[7Mo]

12 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

I know about the AAA phase, it's the protected players I don't know about.

I was surprised by the number of AAA selections. 

Here's the clearest explanation I've found:

Also, anyone who is on the 38-player Triple-A roster is protected from being picked in the minor league draft.

The minor league phase is much simpler--there are no eligibility rules that have to then be maintained. The player is drafted, the player's old organization is paid $24,500 (editor's note: this is updated after originally stating an incorrect figure) and immediately the player becomes a member of his new organization. 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-rule-5-draft/

[Enjoy Terror]

McKenna wasn’t in AAA at any point. They had to protect him.

[Number5]

15 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

McKenna wasn’t in AAA at any point. They had to protect him.

I don't think that matters.  Not all 38 players have to actually be playing in AAA, just like not all 40 players on the 40-man roster have to be actually playing in MLB.

[Luke-OH]

8 hours ago, Enjoy Terror said:

McKenna wasn’t in AAA at any point. They had to protect him.

Number5 is right, he could and would’ve definitely been added to the additional 38 man roster. Sedlock and Fenter will be along with Klimek, Muckenhirn, Alvarado,  Cumberland, etc.

The simple way to think of it is that 40 players are protected from the Rule 5 draft, and 78 are protected from the AAA phase. Maybe a guy like Jaylen Ferguson gets left off and selected, maybe Dietz as well.