My 3 main concerns so far

[Camden_yardbird]

I think these are good concerns but I think drawing any conclusions on Mullins (is a starter, is a backup) are wildly quick conclusions.

[WalkWithElias]

I'm curious to hear about how Bundy is taking to the new coaching staff and direction. It may have been a throwaway comment, but I recall Bundy shrugging off a question about the analytics/data when he was on The Fan when the morning show was in Sarasota. To paraphrase, he said something along the lines of "Yeah, they tell me I need to throw my good pitches more often. I guess that helps." 

We still think of Bundy as a kid, but he was in Buck-World his entire career. He may not be open to this change of direction. 

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, interloper said:

Good thoughts, and I agree.

If I had another concern just at the superficial ML level, it's that the team cannot really rely on Villar and Mancini alone to carry an offense. They're doing a great job so far, but it's not realistic. There are so many holes in the lineup: Mullins, the catcher spot, Martin, Davis, Ruiz. The challenge is going to be maintaining some level of respectability and morale at the ML level while things percolate below. Elias has shown he'll make moves to support Hyde and tweak the ML roster, and I think he'll continue to churn it by mixing in other non-prospects in the early going to stabilize things. 

I think you are spot on here.

[Ohfan67]

33 minutes ago, interloper said:

1. Bundy: Can they sort him out? 2 short outings so far. A ton of pitches. The fastball is 90-92 which seems to be where it's going to stay. He got a bunch of K's with it in his first outing, but the slider has not looked quite as dominant. So far it doesn't seem like any analytical stuff has helped him, but I honestly do not know how long some of that stuff takes to implement. And of course, it won't work for everyone. I have no idea what Bundy's future is. 5th starter? Bullpen guy? Does he turn it around and become a trade chip? All seem about as likely. 
    
2. Mullins: Even if you didn't buy him as a starting CF, I don't think anyone predicted him to be this bad. He not only has the minor league pedigree, but a relatively decent effort in the majors at the end of last year. The lineup is a lot better if he's even a .240 hitter out there. He should not be hitting worse than Ruiz, etc. But it's early. 
    
3. Karns: Couldn't get through an inning his last appearance and the fastball velocity slipped into the high 80s. Hopefully he's healthy, but it seems like he's not a guy that's going to get stretched out anytime soon. It looks like he has to be babied a little bit, which is fine if he's a weapon out of the 'pen. We shall see. 

1. I posted defenses of Bundy many times last year citing his strikeout rate, etc. I think that was definitely the glass is half full mentality. I now believe he is toast. He has two pitches: a swing and miss slider/cut fastball and a mistake. 

 

2. We all wanted to believe that Mullins was going to be a ML center fielder, but it's not happening. I think Elias knew that even before spring training but certainly during spring training and that explains the acquisition of outfielders when we all thought the O's outfield was pretty set. 

 

3. Karns = total meh to me. He has a career ERA+ of 94, missed all of last year, and really only had one complete, decent year in the majors. I think Karns was a flyer signing and he will likely end up at Norfolk or the DL. 

[interloper]

Just now, WalkWithElias said:

I'm curious to hear about how Bundy is taking to the new coaching staff and direction. It may have been a throwaway comment, but I recall Bundy shrugging off a question about the analytics/data when he was on The Fan when the morning show was in Sarasota. To paraphrase, he said something along the lines of "Yeah, they tell me I need to throw my good pitches more often. I guess that helps." 

We still think of Bundy as a kid, but he was in Buck-World his entire career. He may not be open to this change of direction. 

In general, he's probably not part of the future so it mostly doesn't matter anyway. But it would be nice if they made some tweaks that turned him into a trade chip at the very least. He's better than he's shown thus far, though, so there's still time. 

[Hank Scorpio]

I mean, I don't really have "concerns" as it relates to my expectations from this big league club. They are going to be terrible. They just don't have the horses.

Their biggest issue is obviously, and as always, the pitching staff - both the starting pitching and the bullpen. But not far behind that is the starting lineup which includes such dignitaries as Hanser Alberto, Richie Martin, Jesus Sucre, Chris Davis and as much as I hate to say it, Cedric Mullins who looks completely overmatched early on.

It'll be a long year, boys & girls. This is a bunch of AAAA players and a smattering of average MLB'ers attempting to compete at the big league level.

On the positive side:

I like Mancini's bat, I guess. He's no outfielder though. I like Villar but I worry that he will try to do too much. I like that they're young players who hustle and appear to really care a lot. I like Rio Ruiz defensively. I like Dwight Smith, Jr.

I like Hess's stuff. I like Castro's stuff. I like Givens and Paul Fry. I like that they realized they had better go get another starting pitcher because yikes.

I love that baseball is back and I love that they're finally rebuilding - an undertaking that should have started 2 1/2 years ago. I love that they have people in charge that seem to have a good idea what the heck they're doing. I love that PGA has stepped away from it.

This isn't going to be a "Why Not" season, unfortunately. It's gonna be ugly. But I'm bullish on the long term possibilities.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I mean, I don't really have "concerns" as it relates to my expectations from this big league club. They are going to be terrible. They just don't have the horses.

Their biggest issue is obviously, and as always, the pitching staff - both the starting pitching and the bullpen. But not far behind that is the starting lineup which includes such dignitaries as Hanser Alberto, Richie Martin, Jesus Sucre, Chris Davis and as much as I hate to say it, Cedric Mullins who looks completely overmatched early on.

It'll be a long year, boys & girls. This is a bunch of AAAA players and a smattering of average MLB'ers attempting to compete at the big league level.

On the positive side:

I like Mancini's bat, I guess. He's no outfielder though. I like Villar but I worry that he will try to do too much. I like that they're young players who hustle and appear to really care a lot. I like Rio Ruiz defensively. I like Dwight Smith, Jr.

I like Hess's stuff. I like Castro's stuff. I like Givens and Paul Fry. I like that they realized they had better go get another starting pitcher because yikes.

I love that baseball is back and I love that they're finally rebuilding - an undertaking that should have started 2 1/2 years ago. I love that they have people in charge that seem to have a good idea what the heck they're doing. I love that PGA has stepped away from it.

This isn't going to be a "Why Not" season, unfortunately. It's gonna be ugly. But I'm bullish on the long term possibilities.

It's a "Because" season. Why not? Because. We're trying to build something for real this time. 

[Ohfan67]

3 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think these are good concerns but I think drawing any conclusions on Mullins (is a starter, is a backup) are wildly quick conclusions.

I think Mullins' highest OPS against lefties in the minors was .662. His relatively weak arm was often discussed. I don't think it's wild to conclude that he can't hit lefties and he has a weak arm. That doesn't sound like a starting center fielder in the majors. 

[interloper]

Just now, Ohfan67 said:

I think Mullins' highest OPS against lefties in the minors was .662. His relatively weak arm was often discussed. I don't think it's wild to conclude that he can't hit lefties and he has a weak arm. That doesn't sound like a starting center fielder in the majors. 

The concern is he's not even playing like a 4th outfielder right now, at least offensively. Basically, though, he's had one good month and one bad month+ in the majors. That's still not really enough. He's not a sub-.100 hitter. But he does look extremely overmatched right now, and the strikeouts are a concern. 

[Going Underground]

Meoli article :

"We're in kind of a unique spot," Hyde said. "It's a development situation. ... We don't have a ton of guys down in the ’pen who have finished games, either. To be able to finish in the big leagues is not easy, and that's how you grow and that's how you get better — it's by learning how to finish innings, being able to pitch in big spots. Being able to take the big at-bat late in the game. There's a lot of guys who are going to have that experience this year.

“We're going to grow with them and we're going to stay positive with them, and there's going to be some bumps along the way. But, I think we're going to get better long term and for this year because of it."

The Wright quote is kind of funny:

 

There was a legitimately earnest moment on the occasion of the home opener when Wright talked about the frustration of feeling completely different and yet having a bad outing make everyone feel as if he was the same old guy. He's right, but so are the naysayers when those outings stack up.

He still has a big arm, more often than not. His cutter is a weapon when he locates it. But Hyde has used him as both the first and last player out of the bullpen, and it's hard to tell whether there's a job that fits him.

"I've said it since spring — this is a great environment we have created here," Wright said. "I think we really have a family atmosphere, and if your relative does something stupid one day, you don't disown them. I kind of feel like that's where we're at right now. Hyde is doing a great job building confidence, and I think we have confidence in each other every time we go out there."

 

https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-reset-young-pitcher-tests-20190407-story.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Ohfan67]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

The concern is he's not even playing like a 4th outfielder right now, at least offensively. Basically, though, he's had one good month and one bad month+ in the majors. That's still not really enough. He's not a sub-.100 hitter. But he does look extremely overmatched right now, and the strikeouts are a concern. 

I hear you. I was specifically replying to the comment that it was premature to conclude whether he is a starter or a backup. It's too early even tell if he is a major leaguer. I think Mullins will be given an opportunity to prove one way or another, although he may be sent down to AAA at some point and then recalled later. But at this point I don't think many of us will be totally surprised if he doesn't make it. I hope he does, but there have been very few flashes of it this year. 

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, interloper said:

The concern is he's not even playing like a 4th outfielder right now, at least offensively. Basically, though, he's had one good month and one bad month+ in the majors. That's still not really enough. He's not a sub-.100 hitter. But he does look extremely overmatched right now, and the strikeouts are a concern. 

5 strikeouts in 26 PA are a concern?   42 in 217 PA including last year?    That’s a 19.4% rate compared to AL average 21.9%.    

My concern would be whether he is making hard contact.    And the answer is, he isn’t.   Low line drive rate, lots of grounders, and generally not hitting it hard.   

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

5 strikeouts in 26 PA are a concern?   42 in 217 PA including last year?    That’s a 19.4% rate compared to AL average 21.9%.    

My concern would be whether he is making hard contact.    And the answer is, he isn’t.   Low line drive rate, lots of grounders, and generally not hitting it hard.   

Ah my bad, thanks for the fact check. For some reason I thought he was K'ing a lot, but I guess my eyes have deceived me!

[Aglets]

I'm not sure I've seen Mullins hit one out of the infield yet.  Granted, I haven't been watching all the games.

[LookinUp]

This team won't score many runs. Some will get marginally better, but Mancini and Villar are unlikely to maintain their pace.

This team won't prevent many runs. We essentially have one good starting pitcher, a couple of #5's and many guys who probably don't belong in the majors all while playing in a band box. Our AAA guys will get their chances. They'd better be ready.

One series against the Yankees where we got swept doesn't change anything. They're a powerful team, and if we had a decent bullpen arm or two, we might win 2 out of 3. It happens. Especially to bad teams. We simply don't have the depth of talent on this team to win a lot of games that individual performances give us a chance to win.