Can Means become the Orioles’ version of Kuechel?

[scOtt]

Do I dare mention ROY? I have no idea who else is out there...

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, scOtt said:

Do I dare mention ROY? I have no idea who else is out there...

Looks like Means top competition in the AL is Brandon Lowe on the Rays. NL is stacked with rookies and the AL not so much. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-rookies.shtml

[scOtt]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Looks like Means top competition in the AL is Brandon Lowe on the Rays. NL is stacked with rookies and the AL not so much. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-rookies.shtml

Cool beans!

[TheOtherRipken]

3 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Looks like Means top competition in the AL is Brandon Lowe on the Rays. NL is stacked with rookies and the AL not so much. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-rookies.shtml

Don’t forget Vlad Jr too, he has so much hype and visibility he could probably get it with less in my opinion. 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, TheOtherRipken said:

Don’t forget Vlad Jr too, he has so much hype and visibility he could probably get it with less in my opinion. 

I don't know - I feel like here Means could benefit from the same forces that have stopped Trout from winning MVP virtually every year of his career.

Can he get to 162 innings?  I think that's still the minimum requirement to qualify for an ERA title, and that in year they show or don't show you on the leaderboard if you have an inning per team game.  Last night he got to 82.2 innings in the team's 86th game.

[makoman]

13 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Can he get to 162 innings?  I think that's still the minimum requirement to qualify for an ERA title, and that in year they show or don't show you on the leaderboard if you have an inning per team game.  Last night he got to 82.2 innings in the team's 86th game.

Often doesn’t matter. SP winners this decade: Fulmer had 159. deGrom had 140. Fernandez and Hellickson were over 162. But sure the more he pitches the better, he’s going to be kind of anonymous on this team so exposure helps. 

[DrungoHazewood]

49 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

I don't know - I feel like here Means could benefit from the same forces that have stopped Trout from winning MVP virtually every year of his career.

Can he get to 162 innings?  I think that's still the minimum requirement to qualify for an ERA title, and that in year they show or don't show you on the leaderboard if you have an inning per team game.  Last night he got to 82.2 innings in the team's 86th game.

In 2018 57 pitchers qualified for the ERA title.  Or just under two per team.  That's off from 88 in 2014.  The last time we saw fewer than 57 was in 1960, when there were only 16 MLB teams.  Pitcher use is constantly evolving, but if current trends continue we could see a time where only 20-30 pitchers qualify for the title.

Last year 183 pitchers made 10 or more starts, so 31% qualified for the ERA title.  Last year Chris Sale had a 6.8 rWAR season and didn't qualify for the ERA title.

[Moose Milligan]

Sale also placed top 5 in Cy Young voting.

I am glad to see his FIP slowly starting to come down.  Quite frankly, I am not sure how it's not lower than it is but whatever.  I understand what goes into the statistic, it's just that his K rate is decent, as is his k/bb ratio.  He hasn't given up a ton of homers.  The WHIP is fantastic.  So maybe FIP takes a little longer to even out.  The rest of the peripherals are positive enough for me.

I'm not 100% buying in and saying he's for real.  IMO, he needs to be having the same performances this time next year for me to believe the hype.  I'm happy he's having a great season, happy he's an All-Star.  He's probably the best part of the season so far.  

We've just seen too many one year wonders. However, what gives me hope that he is for real is that changeup.  That pitch, I believe, is legit.  And I think a really good changeup is more devastating than any breaking ball.  

Not sure if he can get to qualifying for the ERA title or not.  Despite that, he's on pace to up close to a 7 WAR season.  He might even get some Cy Young votes if that happens.

I am hoping Vlad Jr doesn't light it up this season.  I feel like the media was ready to anoint him rookie of the year before the season started...everyone wanted to see him come up and crush right away.  It'd be great if Means could somehow win 15 games on a terrible team, have a 2.50ish ERA and take home the AL ROY while Vlad Jr scuffles along in his first year.

 

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

In 2018 57 pitchers qualified for the ERA title.  Or just under two per team.  That's off from 88 in 2014.  The last time we saw fewer than 57 was in 1960, when there were only 16 MLB teams.  Pitcher use is constantly evolving, but if current trends continue we could see a time where only 20-30 pitchers qualify for the title.

Last year 183 pitchers made 10 or more starts, so 31% qualified for the ERA title.  Last year Chris Sale had a 6.8 rWAR season and didn't qualify for the ERA title.

This past offseason, I heard one of the FG podcast guys (Sam Miller, I think) speculate that in 50 years, starting and relieving roles will no longer exist.

There will always be the occasional outliers like Todd Gurley/Max Scherzer, but I think pitchers are headed towards running backs like situations.  Just in the last few years, we've seen cherry picks like:

-the 2018 Rays had 2 pitchers throw 100 innings

-Mike Fiers led the 2017 Astros in innings pitched

-Hyun-Jin Ryu was the 7th starter on the 2018 Dodgers.  Some of that was real injuries, but I also feel like "Dodgers injuries" were a real thing and part of the driver on longer option rules coming.

I imagine front office run prevention extremists are daydreaming about seasons their team's pitchers NEVER face a batter a 3rd time in a game except the bottom tenth of Leverage situations, and kind of see the 2022 Orioles as a tabula rasa for pushing towards that boundary.  I'm not entirely sure if I'm rooting more for DL Hall to learn to get Mookie Betts out 3 times, or for Sig to assure him he'll rarely have to.  Beer and tacos of course.

Earl's (4 x 225) + (5 x 100) is creeping towards 200 + (6 x 120) + (6 x 80).  He wanted four starters because finding five was too hard, but Statcast data on hundreds of high minors guys wasn't a tool he had.  And I do believe there's a big pool of true AAA talent guys who can attain MLB effectiveness by burning out their arms for a couple years, which front offices will be only too happy to arbitrage.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I am glad to see his FIP slowly starting to come down.  Quite frankly, I am not sure how it's not lower than it is but whatever.  I understand what goes into the statistic, it's just that his K rate is decent, as is his k/bb ratio.  He hasn't given up a ton of homers.  The WHIP is fantastic.  So maybe FIP takes a little longer to even out.  The rest of the peripherals are positive enough for me

Means' K rate is 7.5, league is 8.8.
His walk rate is 2.4, league is 3.3.
His HR rate is 1.0, league is 1.4.
His FIP is 3.96, league is 4.48.
His BABIP is .253, league is .297.

He's a little better than league walks and homers, a little worse in Ks, and way better in BABIP.  BABIP isn't a part of FIP. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Means' K rate is 7.5, league is 8.8.
His walk rate is 2.4, league is 3.3.
His HR rate is 1.0, league is 1.4.
His FIP is 3.96, league is 4.48.
His BABIP is .253, league is .297.

He's a little better than league walks and homers, a little worse in Ks, and way better in BABIP.  BABIP isn't a part of FIP. 

Right, I understand that.  And thank you for doing that research.  

I suppose if we're talking FIP here, his still has a lot of separation from his ERA because of a lower K rate than league average.  His walk rate and HR rate is also lower than league average, but not by as much as the K rate.  

[DrungoHazewood]

2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

This past offseason, I heard one of the FG podcast guys (Sam Miller, I think) speculate that in 50 years, starting and relieving roles will no longer exist.

There will always be the occasional outliers like Todd Gurley/Max Scherzer, but I think pitchers are headed towards running backs like situations.  Just in the last few years, we've seen cherry picks like:

-the 2018 Rays had 2 pitchers throw 100 innings

-Mike Fiers led the 2017 Astros in innings pitched

-Hyun-Jin Ryu was the 7th starter on the 2018 Dodgers.  Some of that was real injuries, but I also feel like "Dodgers injuries" were a real thing and part of the driver on longer option rules coming.

I imagine front office run prevention extremists are daydreaming about seasons their team's pitchers NEVER face a batter a 3rd time in a game except the bottom tenth of Leverage situations, and kind of see the 2022 Orioles as a tabula rasa for pushing towards that boundary.  I'm not entirely sure if I'm rooting more for DL Hall to learn to get Mookie Betts out 3 times, or for Sig to assure him he'll rarely have to.  Beer and tacos of course.

Earl's (4 x 225) + (5 x 100) is creeping towards 200 + (6 x 120) + (6 x 80).  He wanted four starters because finding five was too hard, but Statcast data on hundreds of high minors guys wasn't a tool he had.  And I do believe there's a big pool of true AAA talent guys who can attain MLB effectiveness by burning out their arms for a couple years, which front offices will be only too happy to arbitrage.

For 100+ years there's been a battle between tradition (real men complete games) and the increasingly undeniable fact that essentially all pitchers pitch better in shorter outings.  Pitcher usage has never reached a stable point because we started out in a completely inefficient pattern (complete games everywhere!) and we haven't yet reached the limits of spreading max effort out over a 25-man roster.

What interests me is whether/when we'll transition to a model where the Sherzers and Kershaws have 60 starts and 140 innings a year, with 2015 Zach Britton-type numbers.  The best pitchers will be a late-70s Goose Gossage with a more consistent use framework.  And then, do you use them to start, or to pitch the last three innings of close games?

[makoman]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Sale also placed top 5 in Cy Young voting.

I am glad to see his FIP slowly starting to come down.  Quite frankly, I am not sure how it's not lower than it is but whatever.  I understand what goes into the statistic, it's just that his K rate is decent, as is his k/bb ratio.  He hasn't given up a ton of homers.  The WHIP is fantastic.  So maybe FIP takes a little longer to even out.  The rest of the peripherals are positive enough for me.

I'm not 100% buying in and saying he's for real.  IMO, he needs to be having the same performances this time next year for me to believe the hype.  I'm happy he's having a great season, happy he's an All-Star.  He's probably the best part of the season so far.  

We've just seen too many one year wonders. However, what gives me hope that he is for real is that changeup.  That pitch, I believe, is legit.  And I think a really good changeup is more devastating than any breaking ball.  

Not sure if he can get to qualifying for the ERA title or not.  Despite that, he's on pace to up close to a 7 WAR season.  He might even get some Cy Young votes if that happens.

I am hoping Vlad Jr doesn't light it up this season.  I feel like the media was ready to anoint him rookie of the year before the season started...everyone wanted to see him come up and crush right away.  It'd be great if Means could somehow win 15 games on a terrible team, have a 2.50ish ERA and take home the AL ROY while Vlad Jr scuffles along in his first year.

 

If he puts up 7 WAR and wins 15 games on a 45 win team he def gets top 5 Cy Young. He probably gets MVP votes. Sportswriters eat that kind of stuff up, it basically writes a whole column for them. 

[bpilktree]

7 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Looks like Means top competition in the AL is Brandon Lowe on the Rays. NL is stacked with rookies and the AL not so much. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-rookies.shtml

He probally top 5.  Right now my top 5

1. Lowe

2. Means

3. Chavis

4.  Turnbill

5. Vlad Jr.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, bpilktree said:

He probally top 5.  Right now my top 5

1. Lowe

2. Means

3. Chavis

4.  Turnbill

5. Vlad Jr.

If Means keeps pitching like this I think he gets ROY unless another player tears it up in the second half.