If Elias doesn't select Rutschman...what would your reaction be?

[Ohfan67]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Seven players the Astros drafted and signed that year have made it to the majors, including the next four guys they drafted after Aiken. That’s an implosion?

Their plan for overpaying lower picks imploded. 

[Ohfan67]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Seven players the Astros drafted and signed that year have made it to the majors, including the next four guys they drafted after Aiken. That’s an implosion?

Are you really arguing that blowing a 1-1 pick is fine?

[Frobby]

Just now, Ohfan67 said:

Are you really arguing that blowing a 1-1 pick is fine?

I’m arguing two things:

1.   The blown pick was not Elias’ fault.

2.    The blown pick did not cause the rest of the Astros’ draft to “implode.”    It had some negative impacts but they had a pretty successful remainder of the draft regardless.    

And of course, the comp pick they got for not signing Aiken turned into Alex Bregman.    So overall, it worked out well for them in the end.   

[MurphDogg]

3 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Are you really arguing that blowing a 1-1 pick is fine?

They got Alex Bregman with the pick so it turned out ok.

[Ohfan67]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’m arguing two things:

1.   The blown pick was not Elias’ fault.

2.    The blown pick did not cause the rest of the Astros’ draft to “implode.”    It had some negative impacts but they had a pretty successful remainder of the draft regardless.    

And of course, the comp pick they got for not signing Aiken turned into Alex Bregman.    So overall, it worked out well for them in the end.   

Their draft plan imploded. I did not mean to say their draft imploded. I misspoke. They lost the two overslots they had lined up. One of those kids even flew to Houston with his family. You asked what could have Elias learned. 

 

Overall Houston is very good and they have had some good fortune. I was not trying to say otherwise. But they made mistakes in that draft. I think a big takeaway is to not build a house of cards and have a contingency plan. 

[Ohfan67]

7 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

They got Alex Bregman with the pick so it turned out ok.

The Orioles drafted Manny. Does that mean the Orioles drafting was perfect? The Astros are very, very good, but they have also been fortunate. And have made some mistakes. 

[Ohfan67]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m arguing two things:

1.   The blown pick was not Elias’ fault.

2.    The blown pick did not cause the rest of the Astros’ draft to “implode.”    It had some negative impacts but they had a pretty successful remainder of the draft regardless.    

And of course, the comp pick they got for not signing Aiken turned into Alex Bregman.    So overall, it worked out well for them in the end.   

By the way, taking a high school pitcher at 1-1 is not a great move. I think Aiken would have been the third ever taken at 1-1. The overslot guys they were going to sign didn’t pan out either. It’s almost certain that Elias’ track record looks better because of the failed MRI and the failure of the last minute bid to sign Aiken. I do hope Elias learned something about risky picks that high in the draft. 

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

The Orioles drafted Manny. Does that mean the Orioles drafting was perfect? The Astros are very, very good, but they have also been fortunate. And have made some mistakes. 

And I expect things will not go perfectly for Elias here, either.    Obviously it gives us a huge boost if his 1-1 pick proves to be worthy of that slot, and if that player busts that’s a huge missed opportunity.   

[MurphDogg]

26 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

The Orioles drafted Manny. Does that mean the Orioles drafting was perfect? The Astros are very, very good, but they have also been fortunate. And have made some mistakes. 

It means the Orioles didn't blow the pick that year. In the same way, the Astros didn't blow the pick at 1-1 (and it wasn't their fault that Aiken was injured), because they ended up getting Bregman with the pick.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, weams said:

Is it not possible that Ludnow overruled his brain trust at the last minute if  Atomic is correct?

I think it’s more likely that they did raise the offer knowing that Aiken/Close probably wouldn’t accept in order to try and win the public perception war which I’m sure was a major concern for a team in a rebuild failing to sign their first pick.

Imagine the backlash if the O’s don’t sign their 1-1 this year.

[Satyr3206]

18 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think it’s more likely that they did raise the offer knowing that Aiken/Close probably wouldn’t accept in order to try and win the public perception war which I’m sure was a major concern for a team in a rebuild failing to sign their first pick.

Imagine the backlash if the O’s don’t sign their 1-1 this year.

Now that would make the server crash...............repeatedly.

[52520Andrew]

I trust Elias over myself when evaluating the players so I would hear him out first and let it play out. That said if some of the more respected posters on here like Luke are livid with the pick then I'd probably change my tune on it. I think Rutschman is the best player by a fairly decent margin though from what I have seen and would need to hear at least some sort of explanation from the FO if they went another direction.

[Ohfan67]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

It means the Orioles didn't blow the pick that year. In the same way, the Astros didn't blow the pick at 1-1 (and it wasn't their fault that Aiken was injured), because they ended up getting Bregman with the pick.

I think picking Aiken was a mistake. I think building a house of cards with their draft strategy was a mistake. Getting fortunate (and being smart) with Bregman the next year doesn’t mean they didn’t make mistakes in that draft.  I’m thrilled the Orioles have Elias. I’m not dumping on him, but he’s not perfect and his past work is certainly worthy of critique. Frobby’s Exchange with me started when I said I hoped Elias learned from that draft. I’m sure he did. 

[Ohfan67]

26 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Imagine the backlash if the O’s don’t sign their 1-1 this year.

Exactly. 

[Satyr3206]

My bottom line is simple. Elias is in charge. He can draft who he thinks is the best choice by his method. Drafting in any sport is a crap shoot to a degree. I just wouldn't want to be in his shoes if he doesn't draft AR when he looks like the obvious pick. And then if he becomes an All Star? But you can say that about any player in any round. But 1-1 is magnified.