Quick note on the slotting system

[Frobby]

Since there’s a lot of talk about how the Orioles may not take Rutschman because of a desire to save money on the no. 1 pick to spend in later rounds, I thought it might be worthwhile to give some brief history here.   

When baseball first went to the slotting system, the gaps between the first few slots were larger than they are now, and that gave the teams more leverage in negotiating with the no. 1 pick.   For example, in 2015, the DBacks signed Dansby Swanson for $2.116 mm under slot (which was $8.616 mm); in 2016, the Phillies signed Mickey Moniak for $2.995 mm under slot (which was $9.015 mm).     

In 2017, MLB tightened up the spacing.    Slot for the no. 1 pick was $7.77 mm, and $7.193 mm for no. 2.    The Royals made what was clearly a cost-conscious choice, choosing Royce Lewis and signing him for $6.725 mm, which was $1.045 mm under slot, and in fact well below no. 2 slot money and barely above no. 3 slot money.    The no. 2 pick, Hunter Greene, actually received almost $500 k more than Lewis.    

Last year, slot was $8.096 mm for no. 1 and $7.496 mm for no. 2.   First pick Casey Mize signed for $7.5 mm, $596 k below slot and $4 k over the value of the no. 2 spot.   

This year, the top slot is valued at $8.415 mm and the second slot at $7.790 mm.    My guess would be that any candidate including Rutschman would be glad to sign for $7.9 mm, a savings of $515 k vs. slot.    Getting a guy like Rutschman to agree to less than no.  2 slot money would be a stretch, though.    A guy like Vaughn, Abrams or Bleday would probably gladly sign for something above no. 4 money, which is $6.664 mm.    So the team might save an extra $1.2 mm or so by going to that choice.    

[Bahama O's Fan]

Just draft the best player

[hoosiers]

I expect we will sign Witt or AR for between $7.25M and $7.75M.

It is possible that we then have a pre-draft deal for a quality prospect with one of our next two picks that frees up additional slot $.  We sign some college seniors.  And then go for one or two major overslot signings and a couple guys near slot.

Hardly an original formula.  

For better or worse, likely better for us, we may see how much $ we have available for overslot signings after today, and then open tomorrow with our major overslot signing based on overnight reconnaissance.

[doctorbj]

How important is the overslot payment?

How often does a player choose to go college if HS or sit out a year if college graduate/or return to school if underclassman based on money offered?

How much really does a few hundred thousand make a difference<grin>? I can see where it might entice a young man thinking about not going to college if HS, but life's a cr-pshoot, especially with pitchers a Tommy John surgeries being so common now.

I know that I'm making it sound like nobody cares about money, but in fact the player has to wait a year if he doesn't. It's not like he gets to get to another team and sign.

I can see where it matters in the international market for really poor individuals.

Hopefully this question makes sense.

 

[bpilktree]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

Since there’s a lot of talk about how the Orioles may not take Rutschman because of a desire to save money on the no. 1 pick to spend in later rounds, I thought it might be worthwhile to give some brief history here.   

When baseball first went to the slotting system, the gaps between the first few slots were larger than they are now, and that gave the teams more leverage in negotiating with the no. 1 pick.   For example, in 2015, the DBacks signed Dansby Swanson for $2.116 mm under slot (which was $8.616 mm); in 2016, the Phillies signed Mickey Moniak for $2.995 mm under slot (which was $9.015 mm).     

In 2017, MLB tightened up the spacing.    Slot for the no. 1 pick was $7.77 mm, and $7.193 mm for no. 2.    The Royals made what was clearly a cost-conscious choice, choosing Royce Lewis and signing him for $6.725 mm, which was $1.045 mm under slot, and in fact well below no. 2 slot money and barely above no. 3 slot money.    The no. 2 pick, Hunter Greene, actually received almost $500 k more than Lewis.    

Last year, slot was $8.096 mm for no. 1 and $7.496 mm for no. 2.   First pick Casey Mize signed for $7.5 mm, $596 k below slot and $4 k over the value of the no. 2 spot.   

This year, the top slot is valued at $8.415 mm and the second slot at $7.790 mm.    My guess would be that any candidate including Rutschman would be glad to sign for $7.9 mm, a savings of $515 k vs. slot.    Getting a guy like Rutschman to agree to less than no.  2 slot money would be a stretch, though.    A guy like Vaughn, Abrams or Bleday would probably gladly sign for something above no. 4 money, which is $6.664 mm.    So the team might save an extra $1.2 mm or so by going to that choice.    

Royce Lewis went to Twins with first pick not Royals.