What would Rutschman hit in the majors today?

[DrungoHazewood]

Purely hypothetical.  There are a thousand reasons to not call Adley Rutschman up to the majors as soon as he signs.  But let's say the O's were good, and their top three catchers all got in some kind of accident and were out for the year.

The last three position players to directly go from college to the majors were John Olerud (1989), Pete Incaviglia (1986), and Bob Horner (1978).  All of those are a long time ago, and somewhat different conditions.  But all of them more than held their own as professional rookies in the majors.  Olerud hit .265/.364/.430, for a .355 wOBA.  Invaviglia hit .250/.320/.463 for a .343 wOBA.  And Horner put up a .266/.313/.539 line, for a .371 wOBA.

I think Ruschman would hit something like .240/.325/.440, maybe a little better.

 

[Frobby]

Fun topic, and who the hell knows?   I’ll say he’d hover around .700 OPS.   

[JMU_Birdfan]

I think he'd hit .260ish but lead the team in RBI's. One of those guys who comes up and you suddenly start winning more because he is always coming up to bat with guys on and knocking them in. (And I think our pitchers would start throwing just a little bit better.)

[interloper]

I think he would be bad. Like Richie Martin bad. DJ Stewart in 2019 AB bad.  

[waroriole]

You guys are pretty optimistic. 

230/290/360

[Tx Oriole]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

You guys are pretty optimistic. 

230/290/360

Who knows?

[interloper]

Trout OPS'd .672 in his first 123 AB after 2+ years in the minors.

You guys are absolutely crazy if you think Adley would OPS .700 right out of the gate. 

[Tony-OH]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

Trout OPS'd .672 in his first 123 AB after 2+ years in the minors.

You guys are absolutely crazy if you think Adley would OPS .700 right out of the gate. 

Trout was also 19-years old and you could argue that Rutschamn has faced better competition than Trout had at that point since he went straight from A-ball to the majors. 

I could see him OPS around .720 right now.

[Frobby]

Just now, interloper said:

Trout OPS'd .672 in his first 123 AB after 2+ years in the minors.

You guys are absolutely crazy if you think Adley would OPS .700 right out of the gate. 

Trout is just one guy.   Ryan Zimmerman posted a .988 OPS in 62 AB the year he was drafted, after 269 MiL at bats.   Manny posted a .739 at age 19 despite never playing AAA, with the same experience level as Trout.   

Bottom line, nobody knows what he’d do.

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Trout is just one guy.   Ryan Zimmerman posted a .988 OPS in 62 AB the year he was drafted, after 269 MiL at bats.   Manny posted a .739 at age 19 despite never playing AAA, with the same experience level as Trout.   

Bottom line, nobody knows what he’d do.

I suppose, but my money is on the league eating him alive because that's what it does to most people. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, interloper said:

I suppose, but my money is on the league eating him alive because that's what it does to most people. 

Well, you can keep your money, because the question is completely hypothetical.    We will never know what would have happened if he’d been called straight to the majors, because he won’t be.  We probably won’t even see him next year.   

I guess if he hits sub-.700 OPS in the minors this summer we can probably infer he wouldn’t have done better in the majors.  But see, Dwight Smith Jr.

[Three Run Homer]

Adley Rustchman doesn't mess around with OPS's that start with 7.  

Adley Rustchman doesn't believe in three-digit OPS's.  Never heard of them.  

 

[Ruzious]

Almost as good as Juan Soto at 19.

[DrungoHazewood]

50 minutes ago, interloper said:

Trout OPS'd .672 in his first 123 AB after 2+ years in the minors.

You guys are absolutely crazy if you think Adley would OPS .700 right out of the gate. 

Trout was 19.  By the time he was Rutschman's age he was working on his second year finishing 2nd in the MVP voting.

I think most players spend time at multiple minor league levels and nobody skips the minors altogether has much more to do with contracts and service time and tradition than players aren't ready.  Remember when Gregg Olson spent nine innings in A ball, 15 in AA, and then was up with the '88 Orioles?  He had about eight weeks of regular season pro experience before he was striking out Henderson, McGwire, and Canseco consecutively to notch a save.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Trout was 19.  By the time he was Rutschman's age he was working on his second year finishing 2nd in the MVP voting.

I think most players spend time at multiple minor league levels and nobody skips the minors altogether has much more to do with contracts and service time and tradition than players aren't ready.  Remember when Gregg Olson spent nine innings in A ball, 15 in AA, and then was up with the '88 Orioles?  He had about eight weeks of regular season pro experience before he was striking out Henderson, McGwire, and Canseco consecutively to notch a save.

Olson was a rare breed, he had a killer curve that guys like Canseco was bailing out on, thought it was heading for their head and then snap and go down across the plate.

No reason to leave that in the minors.