TT: 2019 Top Prospects on the radar list

[Tony-OH]

With just a month left for most of the minor league teams it’s now starts to get serious for us as we do our evaluations for the top 30 Prospects list.

Things can change over the last month of the season, but there are plenty of newcomers under consideration and some who have put themselves in position to be dropped from the list.

So here are the players that are “on the radar” for inclusion in the Top 30 after not being on the list last year and some of the guys at risk for falling off. Note, some of these guys will definitely be on the list while others we are still evaluating. There also still could be some surprises who take off over the last month so this list isn’t exhaustive.

On the radar to be added:

Adley Rutschman – Pretty obvious here as the #1 overall draft pick in this year’s draft. He hasn’t exactly lit up the minors in the early going, but that doesn’t diminish his great potential.

Gunnar Henderson – SS: The 2^nd round pick has all the tools to be a top prospect. He’s definitely on the list but the question will how high?

Kyle Stowers – OF: The competitive balance 2^nd round selection has tools and will probably be on the list, but we’ll have to see how he makes adjustments over the last month to see how high.

Zach Watson – CF: The Orioles 3^rd round pick was the first draft pick to make it to Low-A where he’s held his own.

Darrell Hernaiz – SS: 5^th round high school shortstop has some tools to work off of, especially defensively.

Toby Welk – 3B: Maybe the surprise of the draft, this 21^st rounder has impressed with his body type, athleticism, and knack for barreling baseballs.

Bruce Zimmerman – LHP: Will need to prove it pitching with the juiced up major league balls in AAA, but the sum of his skills adds up over his raw pitching tools.

Mason McCoy – SS: Has done nothing but hit this season at High-A and Bowie. Probably the best middle infield prospects in upper minors.

Cody Sedlock – RHP: He’s thrown the ball better this year, and a move to the pen could improve his stuff.

Jaylen Ferguson – OF: Finally realizing some of his tools. Could be an interesting guy after talking with scouts.

Gray Fenter – RHP: Old for his competition, but former bonus baby might get a jump in stuff with a move to the pen where his fastball-curveball mix could play up.

Ryan Wilson – LHP: The numbers he’s put up as a 22-year old in the Sally League will get him a consideration.

Dallas Litscher – RHP: A plus curveball has been a big part of his success this year. A little old of his leagues.

Adam Stauffer – RHP: The 6-foot-7 righty is having a lot of success this season without improved stuff.

Ruben Garcia – RHP: Hard throwing righty will get some considerations.

Leonardo Rodriguez – RHP: Might have shown enough to get into the backend of the list.

On the radar to be dropped

Luis Ortiz - RHP: Has not progressed at all.

Zach Pop – RHP: Hate to drop a guy due to injury but can a middle reliever with back end bullpen upside keep him on the list with missing a year?

Dillon Tate – RHP: Made his major league debut after pitching better in a relief role, but will have to see if his upside keeps him on

Rylan Bannon – 3b/2B: A meh year has diminished his star a bit.

Jean Carlos Encarnancion – 3B: Upside toolsy guy who made limited strides this year.

Cadyn Grenier – SS: Outside of draft status, would anyone really notice him? Stick has not progressed.

DJ Stewart – OF: If he can actually stay healthy may get bumped over eligibility

Jean Carmona – 2B: New regime don’t seem as excited about him as the old regime who got him in the trad for Schoop.

Cody Carroll – RHP: Was on the bubble to make the list last year and then lost his year this year due to a back injury

Brett Cumberland – Was actually demoted to Frederick this year which is never a good sign.

John Means – LHP: Promoted off the list. No longer eligible.

Cameron Bishop – LHP: Barely made the list last year and has not had a good year in Frederick

Matthias Dietz – RHP: Whoops, mea culpa.

[NCRaven]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

So here are the players that are “on the radar” for inclusion in the Top 30...

Jaylen Ferguson – OF: Finally realizing some of his tools. Could be an interesting guy after talking with scouts.

 

Wasn't he a third round pick of the Ravens this year?

[Greg Pappas]

2 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

Wasn't he a third round pick of the Ravens this year?

The Ravens' Jaylon Ferguson spells his first name with an 'O'... nearly identical.

[LookinUp]

I'm not real bullish on our position guys pretty much anywhere. 

I've wavered on pitching. A skeptic would say we have a lot of #4/5 starter to middle relief types of arms after our top 2. The optimist sees so many of those arms that we think a couple will exceed the current back of the rotation expectation. Baumann might be that guy. Kremer might be that guy. Neither is certain by any Means* though.

 

*pun intended

[now]

Ouch, that's 8 guys to be dropped from the haul of 15 suspects from last year's "purge."

So what's left?

Diaz, Kremer for Machado.

Rogers for Britton.

Phillips, Zimmerman for Gausman.

Villar for Schoop.

"Meh" is right. Or as my dear old dad would say, "Bupkees."

On the brighter side, maybe one true star (Kremer?) emerges from that cast of still-hopefuls.

[baltfan]

6 hours ago, now said:

Ouch, that's 8 guys to be dropped from the haul of 15 suspects from last year's "purge."

So what's left?

Diaz, Kremer for Machado.

Rogers for Britton.

Phillips, Zimmerman for Gausman.

Villar for Schoop.

"Meh" is right. Or as my dear old dad would say, "Bupkees."

On the brighter side, maybe one true star (Kremer?) emerges from that cast of still-hopefuls.

looking back, it might have been pretty suicidal for DD to make deals with teams that were as well run as the Dodgers, Braves, and Brewers.  Problem is that we couldn’t make any more deals with Seattle

[Philip]

8 hours ago, now said:

Ouch, that's 8 guys to be dropped from the haul of 15 suspects from last year's "purge."

So what's left?

Diaz, Kremer for Machado.

Rogers for Britton.

Phillips, Zimmerman for Gausman.

Villar for Schoop.

"Meh" is right. Or as my dear old dad would say, "Bupkees."

On the brighter side, maybe one true star (Kremer?) emerges from that cast of still-hopefuls.

Should have kept Valera...

[vab]

8 hours ago, now said:

Ouch, that's 8 guys to be dropped from the haul of 15 suspects from last year's "purge."

So what's left?

Diaz, Kremer for Machado.

Rogers for Britton.

Phillips, Zimmerman for Gausman.

Villar for Schoop.

"Meh" is right. Or as my dear old dad would say, "Bupkees."

On the brighter side, maybe one true star (Kremer?) emerges from that cast of still-hopefuls.

That's why I was perfectly happy to see the rookie ball kids Elias got for Cashner. The guys clubs are willing to give up in the high minors are usually no better than your average run of the mill minor league free agents. Even the vaunted Yusniel Diaz hasn't done much to distinguish himself at Bowie.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, vab said:

That's why I was perfectly happy to see the rookie ball kids Elias got for Cashner. The guys clubs are willing to give up in the high minors are usually no better than your average run of the mill minor league free agents. Even the vaunted Yusniel Diaz hasn't done much to distinguish himself at Bowie.

Sixteenth in the league in OPS despite being two years younger than average (only one younger player ahead of him).  He's had a quiet year but it's been pretty good.

[MurphDogg]

21 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sixteenth in the league in OPS despite being two years younger than average (only one younger player ahead of him).  He's had a quiet year but it's been pretty good.

Yep, so many posters are failing to adjust for league context. 16th in OPS in the International League is .964, but my guess is that if he posts an .850 OPS with Norfolk next year (good for 54th in the league this year), everyone will say he has taken a huge step forward.

Likewise, I expect everyone to be wildly disappointed with our vaunted AA pitchers as they have ERAs in the high 3s and 4s (at least!) in Norfolk next year.

[jamalshw]

17 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not real bullish on our position guys pretty much anywhere. 

I've wavered on pitching. A skeptic would say we have a lot of #4/5 starter to middle relief types of arms after our top 2. The optimist sees so many of those arms that we think a couple will exceed the current back of the rotation expectation. Baumann might be that guy. Kremer might be that guy. Neither is certain by any Means* though.

 

*pun intended

I'm a bit more optimistic than you, but even if the rest of the guys outside of Hall and Rodriguez become No.4 starters at best, I still think it puts the staff in an okay position. While I don't think Means will be the guy we saw in the first half over his career, I do think he's got a shot to settle in as a sold mid-rotation option and if two guys (Kremer, Baumann, etc) can establish themselves as solid No.4 types, that's an okay back-end of the rotation. Of course, the problem is that puts a lot of pressure on Hall and Rodriguez to both be No.2 type starters and the likelihood of both doing so becomes slim.

As for the position players, I tend to agree. Rutschman is the only one that seems to have much of a chance to become a star. I am bullish enough of Diaz, Hays and Mountcastle to believe they each have a good chance to become viable big league options, but all three are flawed. 

This system does really need another top end arm and a couple top end bats to get really, truly excited. But, at least there's progress.

[LookinUp]

36 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

This system does really need another top end arm and a couple top end bats to get really, truly excited. But, at least there's progress.

Yup. I agree with pretty much everything in your post, but your last point is my bottom line. I don't hate what we have (I like it), but there's a long way to go before we can fill out a 25 man roster that can compete. That's ok. We're early in the rebuild. I just think we need to remind ourselves every now and then.

[sportsfan8703]

Well good thing Hunter Harvey is a guy to watch. 

[LookinUp]

28 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well good thing Hunter Harvey is a guy to watch. 

If you read enough @Luke-OH posts about Harvey, you wouldn't be giving up yet. You still love to have that arm in your system and you can't discount the injuries and resulting lack of professional experience when judging how well he's executing pitches at the top of the minors. 

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Well good thing Hunter Harvey is a guy to watch. 

Harvey was already on the list. This list was players "on the radar" for being added to the list and players on the radar to be dropped. Players not mentioned will still be on eh list. There is still upside with Harvey but it's not as high as it once was.