Matusz Article

[JTrea81]

That was compared to Tillman in early June. Tillman's value has continued to skyrocket since then and Matusz has missed an opportunity to pitch professionally for a couple months.

He may still be ranked ahead by some people, but I think Tillman's gotta be considered the better prospect at this point, similar upside, not quite as much of a sure thing, but he's much further along, which is very important.

Tillman signed out of HS while Matusz pitched in college. You could say Tillman is the furthest along, and he may have more upside, but Matusz is generally regarded as being more polished and will move very quick. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the majors before Tillman.

[tywright]

I'm predicting no more than $3.75MM and a big league contract. Matusz is probably the 3rd/4th best SP to be drafted in the last 4 years. I'm counting David Price ($5.6MM), Andrew Miller ($3.55MM), and Rick Porcello ($3.58MM) ahead of Matusz.

Brackman $3.3MM

Hockevar $3.5MM

Reynolds $3.25MM

Verlander $3.12MM

[Mad Mark]

IIRC, Boras was asking for a $10MM bonus for Wieters right up until the last minute. He signed for a $6MM bonus. If Matusz is asking for $5MM now, something just north of $3MM ought to do it.

Just wonder how much of that I'll be paying...:scratchchinhmm:

[Moose Milligan]

Welp, Friday night on the OH.

Who's gonna be here? :laughlol::beerchug1::beerchug1:

[emmett16]

Hello!!! Anyone watching the last month. Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Pitching....Get him in the system. People won't bat an eye at giving Tex 20+ million per year for 10 years, but we can't give the Best pitcher in the draft 5 Million. Honestly, who cares. Its not our money - Make angelos pay. We need pitching, pitching wins. Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[hoosiers]

"Record breaking" and "fair" are relative terms based on circumstances and draft picks. Unless one gets into Mark Texeira ($9M or so) or Wieters ($6M) range, one can always claim to not be asking for a record breaking amount.

I would say I am glad that Jordan and the FO did not shy away from the proverbial tough signs, but it appears they feel they were avoiding a tough sign when they drafted Matusz.

Per Baseball America, these are the signing bonuses of pitchers taken within the first six picks since 2005 -

2005 - 6th - Romero (Toronto) $2.4M

2006 - 1st - Hochevar (KC) $3.5M

2nd Reynolds (Col) $3.25M, 4th Lincoln $2.75M, 5th Morrow $2.45M, 6th Miller - $3.55M

2007 - 1st Price - $5.6M, 4th Moskos - $2.5M, 6th - Detwiler - $2.2M

Regarding the amount received by the fourth pick -

2005 - Zimmerman - $2.975M

2006 - Lincoln - $2.75M

2007 - Moskos - $2.5M

I've read that slot for the fourth pick this year is $2.75M. I am not sure where people get numbers like $5M or even $4M here. IMO, anything near $3.5M is too much.

We've not heard what the Os are offering, but as long as they are at $2.75M - which is slot, 10% more than Moskos and in line with Lincoln, they are certainly being "fair" in my book. It is my assumption that the Os offer is at least slot.

The second overall pick in 2006, Lincoln, is at $3.25M. The third pick last year, Vitters, received $3.2M.

I've posted most of this information before. I think if Matusz is asking north of $3.5M that is a very high number relatively speaking, but I've been wrong many times before.

[Lucky Jim]

No, Matusz has #1 ceiling if everything goes great, most likely a #2 though.

No pitcher who goes in the top 5 is ever a "#2 at best". They may not be the hard-throwing prototypical ace type ceiling, but there are many types of #1's.

I knew I'd seen an article that disagreed with this.

From BP and Kevin Goldstein:

5. Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

What He Is: The most complete pitcher in the draft, and, oh yeah, he’s left-handed too.

What He’s Not: A guy who is overpowering people with plus-plus offerings

In A Perfect World He Becomes: A No. 2 big league starter and frequent All-Star.

Backup Plan: A back-end rotation regular.

Open Issues: He's skinny, and some see him as more of a command guy than a power guy, which could limit his ceiling.

[HeyIt'sMe]

How many pitchers drafted in the top 5, or first round for that matter, become aces? You have your Josh Beckett's, Scott Kazmir's, and Justin Verlander's of the world, but you also have guys like Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, James Shields (he may not be an ace, but he's a lot more consistent than Kazmir), John Smoltz, and Greg Maddux that slip through the cracks. Saying any pitcher, including David Price, projects to be a #1 starter is unfair. There are those that have the talent to be aces, but there's a lot more to pitching than just "stuff" and natural ability.

[NoVaO]

No, Matusz has #1 ceiling if everything goes great, most likely a #2 though.

No pitcher who goes in the top 5 is ever a "#2 at best". They may not be the hard-throwing prototypical ace type ceiling, but there are many types of #1's.

That's not really true...Greg Reynolds wasn't regarded as a potential #1 guy. He was definitely #2 at best. I would say the same thing about Phil Humber. While Jeremy Sowers was picked #6, no way was his best case scenario #1. In fact, I don't even think his best case scenario was #2 (in my mind at least at the time). Ricardo Romero was also #6 and his upside wasn't as a #1 starter. Daniel Moskos certainly wasn't.

Matusz is different than those guys in that he has a second plus off-speed pitch rather than the one plus off-speed pitch most of the guys I listed above have.

My opinion on Matusz is higher than it was when we drafted him as I'm more confident he can reach the level of a #2 starter than I was...but I question his ability to become a No. 1 starter unless he improves the quality of his fastball.

[NoVaO]

Tillman signed out of HS while Matusz pitched in college. You could say Tillman is the furthest along, and he may have more upside, but Matusz is generally regarded as being more polished and will move very quick. I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the majors before Tillman.

This is pretty ridiculous to say because Tillman is ALREADY in AA and while not dominating, he is definitely close to it. Whether he signed out of high school is irrelevant since it occurred 2.5 years ago.

There is no way Matusz gets to the majors before Tillman unless the Orioles start him out in AA, he absolutely dominates the EL and then he jumps Tillman (who will be in AAA at the time) in his first professional season. That is very unlikely to happen.

[scOtt]

Welp, Friday night on the OH.

Who's gonna be here? :laughlol::beerchug1::beerchug1:

Midnight I assume? I'll be here!

[scOtt]

Hello!!! Anyone watching the last month. Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Pitching....Get him in the system. People won't bat an eye at giving Tex 20+ million per year for 10 years, but we can't give the Best pitcher in the draft 5 Million. Honestly, who cares. Its not our money - Make angelos pay. We need pitching, pitching wins. Pitching, Pitching, Pitching!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is almost an aside to this thread, but one that I feel compelled to post every time someone says this. It IS our money! Angelos sets the parameters of what we spend. This is what we have to deal with. This is what MacPhail has to deal with. If Andy thinks Matusz is worth $5 mill (I doubt that...) then he has to convince Big Peter of it.

When you say "Its not our money - Make Angelos pay", your post just leaves reality for la-la land.

[Anonymous]

This is almost an aside to this thread, but one that I feel compelled to post every time someone says this. It IS our money! Angelos sets the parameters of what we spend. This is what we have to deal with. This is what MacPhail has to deal with. If Andy thinks Matusz is worth $5 mill (I doubt that...) then he has to convince Big Peter of it.

When you say "Its not our money - Make Angelos pay", your post just leaves reality for la-la land.

Amen, bro.

[Three Run Homer]

If Matusz won't sign for anything under $5 million, then you have to pay him $5 million.

I can't believe we would let him go over a difference of $1.5 million. $1.5 million is what it costs to sign a mediocre backup catcher for one season. Letting him walk because you don't want to pay him $5 million instead of $3.5 million would be the epitome of penny wise, pound foolish thinking.

[Maverick2143]

If Matusz won't sign for anything under $5 million, then you have to pay him $5 million.

I can't believe we would let him go over a difference of $1.5 million. $1.5 million is what it costs to sign a mediocre backup catcher for one season. Letting him walk because you don't want to pay him $5 million instead of $3.5 million would be the epitome of penny wise, pound foolish thinking.

The other side of the coin is that if the O's spend 2.25 million over slot to sign Matusz they better be prepared to go well over slot every year. Once the genie gets out you can't stick him back in the bottle.