Matusz Article

[Mackus]

Yea, end of the day no way he walks away unless the Orioles are being ridiculous, which I don't believe.

But they will sign for a number that they should have knocked out months ago though I bet.

I think the delay in signing is expected. It makes all the sense in the world for these draft picks to go down to the wire in the hopes they can get the team to move. If they can get 50% over slot, thats an extra million or so for most of the high 1st rounders, if not more. And the only penalty is waiting until the instructional leagues to play.

The new August 15th deadline and compensation system will accomplish two things, IMO. It'll lead to a greater number of 1st round draft picks being signed and it will also lead to a far greater number of 1st round draft picks waiting until within a day or two of the signing deadline (which used to be the day of the draft).

People should get used to waiting to sign the top picks, because there is tons of incentive and really little downside to holding out for as long as possible.

[Sports Guy]

I think the delay in signing is expected. It makes all the sense in the world for these draft picks to go down to the wire in the hopes they can get the team to move. If they can get 50% over slot, thats an extra million or so for most of the high 1st rounders, if not more. And the only penalty is waiting until the instructional leagues to play.

The new August 15th deadline and compensation system will accomplish two things, IMO. It'll lead to a greater number of 1st round draft picks being signed and it will also lead to a far greater number of 1st round draft picks waiting until within a day or two of the signing deadline (which used to be the day of the draft).

People should get used to waiting to sign the top picks, because there is tons of incentive and really little downside to holding out for as long as possible.

The downside is it takes that much longer for them to get up here and get their service clock going.

[Guest Sailor Jerry]

Talked about this with a friend at work earlier today. They should do like the NHL, where the big league team owns the draft rights for the next three years. Hold out all you want, two years with the St. Paul Saints ain't getting you to the big leagues.

[Fan4Life]

Talked about this with a friend at work earlier today. They should do like the NHL, where the big league team owns the draft rights for the next three years. Hold out all you want, two years with the St. Paul Saints ain't getting you to the big leagues.

Agreed. The NFL needs to do the same thing. Stop all these cry babies from subverting the process that is designed to bring equality to the sport.

[markpolis]

I don't see why so many people get so fired up about this process. It's all part of the negotiation process. Matusz and his people would be foolish to agree to a contract for less money than other players who are drafted behind him in the draft are demanding. Players such as Posey and Crow are both demanding large amounts of money. It makes perfect sense for Matusz and his people to wait things out. It's a game of chicken with each side hoping the other one flinches first. IMO, it's a win-win situation for Matusz. He's going to get a great contract, but why not hold out for the very best possible deal?

Would you rather the Orioles select the best player available or take a pick based on signability? As long as the Orioles are willing to take the best player we are going to have to deal with this scenario each year.

At the end of the day, Matusz will sign and both sides will be happy with the contract. Without a true slotting system in place, this is a necessary evil that we must deal with each year.

[murrayfan420]

People talk about $5 million like it's ridiculous, but that's 1 year of Jay Payton's salary. I would gladly give up $5 mill from the team to sign Matusz instead of signing another Jay Payton or Jamie Walker.

although, it's not my money. They'd better sign this kid.

[Mackus]

The downside is it takes that much longer for them to get up here and get their service clock going.

Does it really though? There haven't been a ton of guys who have completely missed their first professional season, so there aren't a lot of datapoints for comparison, but my guess is that pitching for 2-3 months during the year they were drafted doesn't really delay whenever a player would make their MLB debut by all that much. Almost no players, even if they are really quick risers, make the MLB roster on OD the season after they are drafted. So really the biggest "cost" would probably be in the difference in being a Super-2 or not after your second season.

That is a cost, but getting an extra million or more during their draft year is far more valuable (remember, NPV of money) than the potential (theres a decent chance for every 1st rounder that they never make it enough to reach arbitration) monetary difference in being a Super-2 guy a few years down the road or only having 3 arbitration years.

[Three Run Homer]

And then it's $7 mil, and then it's $10 mil, etc, etc. That's not smart business.

He's got to give a compelling reason that he's worth twice what last year's 4th pick (Moscos) got. Frankly, I don't see any reason close to compelling. It's not like Matusz was projected to go higher than he went. The absolute highest I would concede to him is $3.5 mil. That's more than fair, imo.

Moskos was an overdraft; the Pirates drafted him exactly because they knew they could sign him for slot money. Well, you get what you pay for...Moskos is not a high first round talent. Matusz is a much better pitcher than Moskos.

If your organizational philosophy is that you only want to draft guys who will take slot money, then you will be condemned to get mediocre talent year after year, even when you get high picks.

The smart organizations don't give a damn about slot money. They draft the best talent and pay them what it takes to sign them, even if it's above slot. It's still a lot cheaper to pay $2 or $3 million extra each year to sign good talent than to pay $20 or $30 million extra each year to mediocre free agents that you need to sign because your minor league system isn't producing good talent.

[Mackus]

If your organizational philosophy is that you only want to draft guys who will take slot money, then you will be condemned to get mediocre talent year after year, even when you get high picks.

Yeah, getting stuck with players that agree to pre-draft deals for slot or lower money sucks.

How's our rightfielder doing, again?

I agree with the general point you make, but there is always a limit where any more is simply too much or, more realistically, way too much. You can't just give in and give every top pick whatever they want without hesitation. If Matusz is insisting on $5M+, an amount that both he is not worth and that he never indicated before the draft he would insist upon, then let him walk. Thats a much smarter move than giving him his $5M+ and then trying to convince the guy next year that you wanna play hardball.

$3.5M is over slot by about 30%, its a very, very fair offer.

[hoosiers]

All of this is a process and a super-large majority of kids drafted get signed.

I do not begrudge the prospects and agents for asking all they can because, once they sign, the system works very much in favor of management. Just look at what Nick Markakis should be paid this year and what he is being paid. We signed Nick for aroudn $1.7M IIRC and we are paying him around $450k this year and his production is probably worth north of $10M. In other words, THIS ONE YEAR from Markakis justifies the entire amount spend on the Os 2003 draft from a cost basis even though the club also benefited from Markakis production last year and will for the next couple of years - not to mention how much Chris Ray (from the same draft) has contributed above his salary.

So, I have no issue with Matusz getting all he can now because he will not be able to dictate receiving fair market value as compensation for at least six years after he makes the majors.

That said, my expectation is that the Os would have discussed signing parameters with Matusz before drafting him and I believe they did to avoid the very scenario that is playing out now. So, I think this entire episode is disappointing. I am sure if the Os truly left the ball in Wieters court last year and did not know whether he would accept their offer or not until 10 minutes before the deadline that the Os were probably looking to avoid the same situation this year. This is disappointing.

I do not want it to be the Orioles, but it would be interesting if a team or two told their draftees to go pound sand and get back into the pool. If this became a more real threat to draft picks and agents, they might behave a little different.

[Lucky Jim]

All of this is a process and a super-large majority of kids drafted get signed.

I do not begrudge the prospects and agents for asking all they can because, once they sign, the system works very much in favor of management. Just look at what Nick Markakis should be paid this year and what he is being paid. We signed Nick for aroudn $1.7M IIRC and we are paying him around $450k this year and his production is probably worth north of $10M. In other words, THIS ONE YEAR from Markakis justifies the entire amount spend on the Os 2003 draft from a cost basis even though the club also benefited from Markakis production last year and will for the next couple of years - not to mention how much Chris Ray (from the same draft) has contributed above his salary.

So, I have no issue with Matusz getting all he can now because he will not be able to dictate receiving fair market value as compensation for at least six years after he makes the majors.

That said, my expectation is that the Os would have discussed signing parameters with Matusz before drafting him and I believe they did to avoid the very scenario that is playing out now. So, I think this entire episode is disappointing. I am sure if the Os truly left the ball in Wieters court last year and did not know whether he would accept their offer or not until 10 minutes before the deadline that the Os were probably looking to avoid the same situation this year. This is disappointing.

I do not want it to be the Orioles, but it would be interesting if a team or two told their draftees to go pound sand and get back into the pool. If this became a more real threat to draft picks and agents, they might behave a little different.

I'd think this would be built-in to the slotting system. I.e., it's not a "cost" that's unaccounted for.

[Sports Guy]

All of this is a process and a super-large majority of kids drafted get signed.

I do not begrudge the prospects and agents for asking all they can because, once they sign, the system works very much in favor of management. Just look at what Nick Markakis should be paid this year and what he is being paid. We signed Nick for aroudn $1.7M IIRC and we are paying him around $450k this year and his production is probably worth north of $10M. In other words, THIS ONE YEAR from Markakis justifies the entire amount spend on the Os 2003 draft from a cost basis even though the club also benefited from Markakis production last year and will for the next couple of years - not to mention how much Chris Ray (from the same draft) has contributed above his salary.

So, I have no issue with Matusz getting all he can now because he will not be able to dictate receiving fair market value as compensation for at least six years after he makes the majors.

That said, my expectation is that the Os would have discussed signing parameters with Matusz before drafting him and I believe they did to avoid the very scenario that is playing out now. So, I think this entire episode is disappointing. I am sure if the Os truly left the ball in Wieters court last year and did not know whether he would accept their offer or not until 10 minutes before the deadline that the Os were probably looking to avoid the same situation this year. This is disappointing.

I do not want it to be the Orioles, but it would be interesting if a team or two told their draftees to go pound sand and get back into the pool. If this became a more real threat to draft picks and agents, they might behave a little different.

But remember, many of these guys also get paid a ton more than they are worth in FA, so it balances out in the end.

[Frobby]

People talk about $5 million like it's ridiculous, but that's 1 year of Jay Payton's salary. I would gladly give up $5 mill from the team to sign Matusz instead of signing another Jay Payton or Jamie Walker.

although, it's not my money. They'd better sign this kid.

That's kind of how I feel, though obviously there has to be a limit. I trust the Orioles to get this done at an appropriate price, whatever that is.

[allstar1579]

People talk about $5 million like it's ridiculous, but that's 1 year of Jay Payton's salary. I would gladly give up $5 mill from the team to sign Matusz instead of signing another Jay Payton or Jamie Walker.

although, it's not my money. They'd better sign this kid.

True, but the problem is, if we sign BM for that much this year, whoever we take next year is going to want $1 mil over slot, and then the next year, and the next year...Until finally we have enough and stop spending and it costs us a draft pick one year.

[murrayfan420]

True, but the problem is, if we sign BM for that much this year, whoever we take next year is going to want $1 mil over slot, and then the next year, and the next year...Until finally we have enough and stop spending and it costs us a draft pick one year.

Yea, I didn't really think about that but I still think we need to be aggressive if we're going to get back to competing with the Yanks/Sox/Rays. This soft slot system really isn't working so I wouldn't be surprised if they revisit how it works similar to what the NFL is going to do.

We can't let our top draft picks go unsigned. It's really that simple.