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Extending Home Grown vs FA


Frobby

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There's been a lot of talk about how the Orioles have more revenue now, so they should be spending it on free agents. But I think there are at least two ways to spend any additional revenue -- free agents, or locking up our own players.

As has been detailed elsewhere, the Orioles have 14 players who are arbitration-eligible. Some of those are potential core guys: Hammel (FA 2014), Johnson (FA 2015), Wieters (FA 2016), and Davis (FA 2016). Others on the list are solid contributors. You also have Markakis and Hardy potentially being free agents in 2015.

Obviously, you can do some of both -- sign free agents, and lock up some of your own. But we need to consider that our own guys have already started to get more expensive, and will continue to do so, and we will start losing some guys in the next few years if we don't lock them up. For me, I'd like to lock up Wieters and Hammel this offseason, and I'd rather spend my money there than spend it on most of the available free agents.

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If we could sign Hammel to a team friendly deal I would be all for it. Something like 3yrs / 20m would be great. Doubt Hammel would go for that though (can't blame a guy for wanting to get the most $ possible).

I have a feeling that locking up Wieters would be a very team unfriendly deal. With Matt playing such a demanding position, I would be fine with going year to year with him.

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Now that's exactly what I'm talking about. They are getting Longoria locked in at essentially 2011 FA prices (see: Ryan Zimmerman), and with every team in MLB about to get $25 mm/yr more from the TV deal starting in 2014, that deal is going to look very cheap if Longoria stays healthy.

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There's been a lot of talk about how the Orioles have more revenue now, so they should be spending it on free agents. But I think there are at least two ways to spend any additional revenue -- free agents, or locking up our own players.

As has been detailed elsewhere, the Orioles have 14 players who are arbitration-eligible. Some of those are potential core guys: Hammel (FA 2014), Johnson (FA 2015), Wieters (FA 2016), and Davis (FA 2016). Others on the list are solid contributors. You also have Markakis and Hardy potentially being free agents in 2015.

Obviously, you can do some of both -- sign free agents, and lock up some of your own. But we need to consider that our own guys have already started to get more expensive, and will continue to do so, and we will start losing some guys in the next few years if we don't lock them up. For me, I'd like to lock up Wieters and Hammel this offseason, and I'd rather spend my money there than spend it on most of the available free agents.

DD should have serious discussions on Wieters. Make a real effort to come to terms on a long term agreement. Boras will be tough and we don't know what Wieters wants to do though Wieters having Boras as an agent speaks pretty loudly.

Hammel is not a candidate to be locked up long term this off season IMO. Too many questions about his health, his career 2nd half performance, and what he would do over a full season. He needs to prove that he is a TOR starter in 2013 if he wants to be paid like one. What the O's need to do is to find a way to have him under club control through 2014 or failing that trade him before opening day. I am not in favor of him walking after 2013 and the O's getting nothing.

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Now that's exactly what I'm talking about. They are getting Longoria locked in at essentially 2011 FA prices (see: Ryan Zimmerman), and with every team in MLB about to get $25 mm/yr more from the TV deal starting in 2014, that deal is going to look very cheap if Longoria stays healthy.

So Price is now really available. Wow.

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What I don't get is this.

Money is money, regardless of whether you spend it on your own homegrown players or FA's. You spend it either way.

I just want to know why the O's never spend the money they'll give to a Markakis, Jones, or Roberts on a FA.

Granted, the money they gave to those players wont land a Hamilton or someone of a superstar caliber, but they seem more likely to lock up their own players vs. spending that same amount of money on FA's.

They need to realize they can do both.

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There have been posts on Tango's blog that indicate there's a significant advantage in resigning your own players. In other words, teams who resign their own get better performance out of those players than an average free agent, indicating teams closest to the players know more than an outside team would and are in a better position to evaluate and value those players.

So if the question is would you rather spend $100M resigning selected Orioles or $100M on outside free agents it would be easy to pick the in-house solution.

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There have been posts on Tango's blog that indicate there's a significant advantage in resigning your own players. In other words, teams who resign their own get better performance out of those players than an average free agent, indicating teams closest to the players know more than an outside team would and are in a better position to evaluate and value those players.

So if the question is would you rather spend $100M resigning selected Orioles or $100M on outside free agents it would be easy to pick the in-house solution.

I hate free agency, would rather spend it on our own.

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Now that's exactly what I'm talking about. They are getting Longoria locked in at essentially 2011 FA prices (see: Ryan Zimmerman), and with every team in MLB about to get $25 mm/yr more from the TV deal starting in 2014, that deal is going to look very cheap if Longoria stays healthy.

I generally support your view about locking up our own but on the other hand....Brob's deal will finally expire after the season freeing up some money, Johnson will likely be a poor use of scarce resources if he seeks top "closer" money and then there's the TV deal. I'm not saying we should be rushing into the FA market and risk losing our own but I do think we have an interesting window with the Yanks and Red Sox having some issues possibly and our young talent potentially performing above their salary. Adding the right free agent with reasonable terms may be a good investment. Of course, figuring out the right free agent is no easy thing to do.

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What I don't get is this.

Money is money, regardless of whether you spend it on your own homegrown players or FA's. You spend it either way.

I just want to know why the O's never spend the money they'll give to a Markakis, Jones, or Roberts on a FA.

Granted, the money they gave to those players wont land a Hamilton or someone of a superstar caliber, but they seem more likely to lock up their own players vs. spending that same amount of money on FA's.

They need to realize they can do both.

FA's are typically 30yrs of age and older. I'd much prefer us lock up our guys for a few years past arbitration so we're paying them for their age 25-32 seasons as opposed to FA's looking to get paid for age 30-37+.

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Apparently we are supposed to sign our own guys, sign Josh Hamilton, make more revenue by doing these moves, and then go even more hog wild in free agency in a year or two.

Who said that ? When was the last time the Orioles signed a Type A free agent? Hint it was before the 2001 season and the deal for Tejada was considered by many to be a bargain. Many here would like to see them upgrade the middle of the order. If the Orioles pick up a guy like Hamilton the team would be pretty well set for the next 3-4 seasons other than maybe the pitching. I know that Hardy will eventually be pushed off short ...But they can use the money for him on a 3B or 2B. And hopefully Schoop can get to the majors and establish himself at one or the other.

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FA's are typically 30yrs of age and older. I'd much prefer us lock up our guys for a few years past arbitration so we're paying them for their age 25-32 seasons as opposed to FA's looking to get paid for age 30-37+.

Even if our guys arent anywhere near as good? The love affair with our mediocre players is sad.

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