Extending Home Grown vs FA

[MemorialStadKid]

You said we need a Hamilton (of which there is only one hitter in FA this year who could be considered in his class as a hitter). Then you said you wouldn't sign him.

Which is it man?

Please pay attention:

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php/128490-Locking-up-our-own-players-vs-spending-on-free-agents?p=2992976#post2992976

MSK

[Roll Tide]

That's really cute guy.

______________________

Listen, I didn't say I didn't want Josh Hamilton, never have. I just don't want to pay what I think he'll inevitably get on the market. If he can be had for 4/$80 or even 5/$100. I'd be all about it. Personally, based on what FA's have been getting lately, I think he'll find a way to get a lot more than that and that's too much for me. I am prepared for life without Josh Hamilton, because that's likely the reality. It's not because I've been brainwashed by Roch Kubatko and MASN.

The problem with the "go get a big name FA" crowd is that they set zero parameters on where they'd draw the line. It's always "give him a dollar more than his best offer". I don't know how you can critique my belief that a 6+ yr deal would be too much, or that over $20m a year is just more than I'd be willing to spend.

If he signs for 4/$80 with some other team, I'll be the first one on here cursing PA. Please let me know when it happens.

You can make that argument every year about the top free agents on the market. Then your saying you will never get a A type free agent again. The numbers you mention just wont get it done. Kind of like McPhail's wow offers. If other teams can afford those contracts so can the Orioles. DD has signed premium players in his past GM position (Manny & P Martinez). So he's clearly not the problem in this situation.

[Roll Tide]

Nice job skirting the question. You have to answer yes to this, it's the only way you can stick to your agenda without looking foolish.

No I dont have to say I would have. If pressed on the matter I probably would've offered Prince what the Tigers did. But the Orioles dont have Star offensive players. I dont see them in the minors and we will never sign them in free agency as were too cheap.

[TradeAngelos]

Probably here. Even assuming nobody blows up and gets a crazy extension, AND the O's fill out the rest of the roster with minimally-salaried players they're at or around $100M through 2015.

Yeah I am well aware of that spreadsheet, I linked a similar one in my post. That is what I am using.

For 2013 we might be around $100 million, BUT that is assuming we re sign everyone including Reynolds. If not it is around $90 million.

After that, with my best estimation in my crystal ball I have about $90 million in 2014, $81 million in 2015, and in 2016 nothing even remotely that close because it is hard to project out that far and salary commitments drop off a cliff. That includes every single Arb eligible player back, Weiters getting max (arb) money and no one leaving.

I can list all the players I have down and for what if that would help.

Player...............2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Nick Markakis....15.35 15.53 10.00 11.00 12.00

Brian Roberts....10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Adam Jones.......8.83 13.33 13.33 16.33 16.33 17.33

JJ Hardy............7.42 7.42 6.00 7.00 8.00

Mark Reynolds...8.00 8.00 0.00

Jim Johnson......6.90 FA FA

Jason Hammel...6.50 FA FA

Matt Weiters......4.50 7.50 12.50 FA

Tsuyoshi Wada...4.07 OPT FA

Wei- Yen Chen...3.66 4.16 0.37

Nate McLouth.....2.50 3.50 FA

Wilson Betemit...2.00 OPT FA

Darren O'Day.....2.20 4.50 FA

Bobby Andino.....1.80 2.50 FA

Dylan Bundy.......1.25 1.25 1.25

Troy Patton.........0.80 2.50 2.50 A4 FA

Luis Ayala...........1.00 FA FA

Miguel Gonzales..1.00 1.00 3.50 6.00 8.00 A4 FA

Brian Matusz......1.00 2.00 3.50 A4 FA

Chris Tillman......1.00 2.00 5.00 A2 A3 FA

Joe Saunders.......FA FA FA

Taylor Teagarden.0.80 1.50 2.00 FA

Omar Quintenilla.0.80 1.00 1.50 FA

Pedro Strop........1.00 3.00 4.50 6.00 7.00 FA

Tommy Hunter...1.80 2.00 2.50 FA

Manny Machado..1.00 1.00 1.00

Chris Davis.........3.30 5.50 8.00 FA

Nolan Reimold.....1.00 2.00 3.00 FA

Steve Johnson....1.00 1.00 1.00

Lew Ford............0.60 1.00 1.50

Ryan Flaherty.....1.00 1.00 1.50 A2 A3 FA

Xavier Avery

Eduardo Rodriguez

Nick Delmonico 0.70

Steve Pearce

Joe Mahoney

Stu Pomeranz

Zach Clark

Oliver Drake

Louis Exposito

Jake Arrietta......1.00 1.50 2.50 4.00

(If you see numbers in there that are obviously not right I put them in there for estimations, like Markakis for example. I know I could be off but I made my best guess. Feel free to correct anything and put your own numbers in)

Look I just want the facts, I am sure there are some things missing, wrong projections so feel free to correct anything that is wrong and I will change it. I tried to estimate with "worst case scenario" numbers. Some of these guys I have included will be older and who knows if we will even keep them (Hardy as an example). Included them anyway. Some young guys who knows how they will produce, gave them benefit of doubt as well.

Also with the "MLB inflation" a $100 million payroll will be nothing in a few years, contenders in the AL will be spending $150 million. Heck in 2012 there were already 10 teams over that threshold, and I bet it goes to about 14 if not more in 2013. The salaries and payroll just continue to get higher every year.

You have to keep up, and if you don't you will be left behind. Especially in our division and in this sport.

Last 15 teams to win World series average payroll adjusted for inflation....$116 million (actual $100 million, going back to 1998). To win the AL it is $120 million.(actual $101.5 million). That like everything else in MLB will jump in large increments as the years go on.

Unless you plan on developing the next Josh Hamilton and waiting 5 years for him, you might just have to get that on the free agent market for once in the last 15 years. I know it is crazy and stupid according to most around here, but teams really do use this avenue to improve their team quite often. Teams that win it all usually have a few of these players, because they know they can't just magically develop every single thing they need from the farm system on cue. All some of us are asking for in ONE. ONE in 15 years if the price is reasonable.

[McNulty]

He said he would go for/hope for 5/$100m. Which imop is as good as not even making an offer.

MSK, this is basically what I was trying to say.

[Number5]

Yeah I am well aware of that spreadsheet, I linked a similar one in my post. That is what I am using.

For 2013 we might be around $100 million, BUT that is assuming we re sign everyone including Reynolds. If not it is around $90 million.

After that, with my best estimation in my crystal ball I have about $90 million in 2014, $81 million in 2015, and in 2016 nothing even remotely that close because it is hard to project out that far and salary commitments drop off a cliff. That includes every single Arb eligible player back, Weiters getting max (arb) money and no one leaving.

I can list all the players I have down and for what if that would help.

Player...............2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Nick Markakis....15.35 15.53 10.00 11.00 12.00

Brian Roberts....10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Adam Jones.......8.83 13.33 13.33 16.33 16.33 17.33

JJ Hardy............7.42 7.42 6.00 7.00 8.00

Mark Reynolds...8.00 8.00 0.00

Jim Johnson......6.90 FA FA

Jason Hammel...6.50 FA FA

Matt Weiters......4.50 7.50 12.50 FA

Tsuyoshi Wada...4.07 OPT FA

Wei- Yen Chen...3.66 4.16 0.37

Nate McLouth.....2.50 3.50 FA

Wilson Betemit...2.00 OPT FA

Darren O'Day.....2.20 4.50 FA

Bobby Andino.....1.80 2.50 FA

Dylan Bundy.......1.25 1.25 1.25

Troy Patton.........0.80 2.50 2.50 A4 FA

Luis Ayala...........1.00 FA FA

Miguel Gonzales..1.00 1.00 3.50 6.00 8.00 A4 FA

Brian Matusz......1.00 2.00 3.50 A4 FA

Chris Tillman......1.00 2.00 5.00 A2 A3 FA

Joe Saunders.......FA FA FA

Taylor Teagarden.0.80 1.50 2.00 FA

Omar Quintenilla.0.80 1.00 1.50 FA

Pedro Strop........1.00 3.00 4.50 6.00 7.00 FA

Tommy Hunter...1.80 2.00 2.50 FA

Manny Machado..1.00 1.00 1.00

Chris Davis.........3.30 5.50 8.00 FA

Nolan Reimold.....1.00 2.00 3.00 FA

Steve Johnson....1.00 1.00 1.00

Lew Ford............0.60 1.00 1.50

Ryan Flaherty.....1.00 1.00 1.50 A2 A3 FA

Xavier Avery

Eduardo Rodriguez

Nick Delmonico 0.70

Steve Pearce

Joe Mahoney

Stu Pomeranz

Zach Clark

Oliver Drake

Louis Exposito

Jake Arrietta......1.00 1.50 2.50 4.00

(If you see numbers in there that are obviously not right I put them in there for estimations, like Markakis for example. I know I could be off but I made my best guess. Feel free to correct anything and put your own numbers in)

Look I just want the facts, I am sure there are some things missing, wrong projections so feel free to correct anything that is wrong and I will change it. I tried to estimate with "worst case scenario" numbers. Some of these guys I have included will be older and who knows if we will even keep them (Hardy as an example). Included them anyway. Some young guys who knows how they will produce, gave them benefit of doubt as well.

Also with the "MLB inflation" a $100 million payroll will be nothing in a few years, contenders in the AL will be spending $150 million. Heck in 2012 there were already 10 teams over that threshold, and I bet it goes to about 14 if not more in 2013. The salaries and payroll just continue to get higher every year.

You have to keep up, and if you don't you will be left behind. Especially in our division and in this sport.

Last 15 teams to win World series average payroll adjusted for inflation....$116 million (actual $100 million, going back to 1998). To win the AL it is $120 million.(actual $101.5 million). That like everything else in MLB will jump in large increments as the years go on.

Unless you plan on developing the next Josh Hamilton and waiting 5 years for him, you might just have to get that on the free agent market for once in the last 15 years. I know it is crazy and stupid according to most around here, but teams really do use this avenue to improve their team quite often. Teams that win it all usually have a few of these players, because they know they can't just magically develop every single thing they need from the farm system on cue. All some of us are asking for in ONE. ONE in 15 years if the price is reasonable.

If we don't sign Reynolds, don't you think we would sign someone else? I think that you are overlooking the fact that we will always have a full roster. We will always sign players to fill the spots not yet signed for 2013, 14, 15, etc. Just because we don't have $100K committed at this moment doesn't mean that we won't. In fact, given what we do have committed as of now and what spots are open, it looks like the more than likely will.

[Frobby]

Also with the "MLB inflation" a $100 million payroll will be nothing in a few years, contenders in the AL will be spending $150 million. Heck in 2012 there were already 10 teams over that threshold, and I bet it goes to about 14 if not more in 2013. The salaries and payroll just continue to get higher every year.

I wholeheartedly agree that we are going to see a wave of salary inflation now that the clubs are going to have $25 mm/yr in extra national TV money and a lot of teams are getting more local TV money as well. That's the main reason I want to lock up some of our players before that wave of inflation really hits. That's why Tampa just extended Longoria even though he already was under contract for several more years.

[weams]

You can make that argument every year about the top free agents on the market. Then your saying you will never get a A type free agent again. The numbers you mention just wont get it done. Kind of like McPhail's wow offers. If other teams can afford those contracts so can the Orioles. DD has signed premium players in his past GM position (Manny & P Martinez). So he's clearly not the problem in this situation.

And it is not Andy MacPhail fault either. It is either a miserly owner, a small to mid level franchise, or the fact that these deal are not smart for a club to commit to.

[TradeAngelos]

I wholeheartedly agree that we are going to see a wave of salary inflation now that the clubs are going to have $25 mm/yr in extra national TV money and a lot of teams are getting more local TV money as well. That's the main reason I want to lock up some of our players before that wave of inflation really hits. That's why Tampa just extended Longoria even though he already was under contract for several more years.

Ok so we can agree that this "$100 million benchmark" that folks want to use as some indicator for now until eternity is constantly changing and going higher, every single year.

I am all for locking up our own players long term, and using a little Tampa strategy if that is what it takes. Heck I would sign Wieters to a 10 year deal right now, but what have to Orioles ever done to give me confidence that is even an option? Even being discussed? Who are these players outside of Wieters who are we talking about here.....Machado?? I would lock him up too. Outside of those two you have a bunch of question marks, or stop gap players. Young guys and who knows what they turn out to be. Not paying Jim Johnson right? Not worth it to pay closers market rate so he will be gone.

It just seems like we are stuck in the middle, like we have been forever. Not doing anything proactive like that, and at the same time refusing to use free agency in any capacity. I would love to see both, but indications are that isn't happening.

Like MSK and others have said it is always something, about every single FA, every year. Always an excuse why we can't afford this, why that guy won't be right for us. It is actually pretty comical that we have a glaring need in LF AND a MOO bat, yet some will still claim Hamilton is "not a fit".

Ok so you don't want to spend on free agency? Then start talks with Wieters and Machado and get something done. Extend Hammel. Re sign Reynolds for 3 years. Get anything done to secure the future of this team. Adam Jones can't do it by himself.

[stomperspc]

Look I just want the facts, I am sure there are some things missing, wrong projections so feel free to correct anything that is wrong and I will change it. I tried to estimate with "worst case scenario" numbers. Some of these guys I have included will be older and who knows if we will even keep them (Hardy as an example). Included them anyway. Some young guys who knows how they will produce, gave them benefit of doubt as well.

Like Number5 said, you need to fill out the roster to 25 guys for every year. For example, you only have 20 players' salaries listed for 2015. I guess you could assume that those five additional players will all be making the league minimum but that's almost certainly not accurate. It is probably more like 18 or so for 2015 because you have Q and Ford listed (I doubt either are still around in 2015). Andino is listed for 2013 and 2104 but he is already gone. Jim Johnson also is not a free agent until after the 2014 season.

Baseball-Reference's projected future payroll (through 2015 at least) seems pretty accurate or at least in the ball park.

[TradeAngelos]

Like Number5 said, you need to fill out the roster to 25 guys for every year. For example, you only have 20 players' salaries listed for 2015. I guess you could assume that those five additional players will all be making the league minimum but that's almost certainly not accurate. It is probably more like 18 or so for 2015 because you have Q and Ford listed (I doubt either are still around in 2015). Andino is listed for 2013 and 2104 but he is already gone. Jim Johnson also is not a free agent until after the 2014 season.

Baseball-Reference's projected future payroll (through 2015 at least) seems pretty accurate or at least in the ball park.

I would bet that those last 5 guys make the minimum those years, they will be roster filler/young guys on first contract.

And that baseball reference projection is assuming we keep every single player on the current roster, and none of them fall by the wayside in the next couple years. That won't happen. Are all the deep Arb 3 and 4's going to still be here and on the books at those numbers they project? Who knows, probably not for one reason or another.

It also looks like they have us picking up Markakis $17.5 million option in 2015 which is not happening in this lifetime, am I reading that right?

[Brendan25]

His deal was 9/$214 mm, not $235-250 mm.

Speaking for myself, there's no way I'd pay that. Fielder probably earned his $23 mm last year, and maybe he'll earn his salary for the next 2-3 seasons. For the last 4-5 years of it, the Tigers will rue the day they inked this deal.

Of course, the Tigers went to the World Series in 2012, and if they win one some time in the next 2-3 years, maybe they won't care when Fielder declines.

No I dont have to say I would have. If pressed on the matter I probably would've offered Prince what the Tigers did. But the Orioles dont have Star offensive players. I dont see them in the minors and we will never sign them in free agency as were too cheap.

That's crazy that you would have given Prince that. I have felt that our difference on Hamilton was a matter of us having different opinions on what he will get in free agency. Now it seems like you are willing to pay these guys MUCH more then I am.

[Number5]

I would bet that those last 5 guys make the minimum those years, they will be roster filler/young guys on first contract.

And that baseball reference projection is assuming we keep every single player on the current roster, and none of them fall by the wayside in the next couple years. That won't happen. Are all the deep Arb 3 and 4's going to still be here and on the books at those numbers they project? Who knows, probably not for one reason or another.

It also looks like they have us picking up Markakis $17.5 million option in 2015 which is not happening in this lifetime, am I reading that right?

Right on! Lets just go ahead and rant and rave right now because PA isn't spending enough in 2015. Come on, man. We had a great season and have a good core of players. There really aren't that many spots that we need to fill, and DD is on top of it. We don't even have the list of non-tenders yet. The Orioles are not at the bottom of the salary list by any means. Why get all up in arms at this point? Have a little patience, let it play out and see what happens. No reason to get your blood in a boil prematurely.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

Could you project out the next couple of years and tell us where this "$100 million payroll" is coming from in our own players? I don't even see it for 2013, and sure as heck don't see it after that. Oh I forgot, all our retreads are going to be superstars and we are going to sign them all to big contracts I guess. Build from within!! Free agents just destroy teams and never help them to win!

The fact is we have ONE guy signed long term right now in Jones. ONE. We have as much payroll flexibility over the next 4-5 years as any team in MLB, even counting signing guys like Wieters to long term deals. Any other current Orioles who are going to break the bank that I am unaware of? Lay it out for all the stupid people who don't know what we are talking about.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t50_b9iaARDxOK6TPjab3gQ&output=html

See if that helps.

I bow to your knowledge and ability to work in google docs.

Did I say anywhere that I didn't want a $120m payroll in 2013? The discussion has been, as always, Josh Hamilton and Zach Grienke. I assume those are the guys you want. My stance is that I don't want to be paying either of those guys $20m+ in 2018, 2019, and 2020. That is all.

What PA can or can not afford means nothing to me, but please keep trying to label me as someone who doesn't want to see payroll increases. Do you think I have some invested interest in putting more money in PA's pocket?

All I've ever said was that I didn't want Hamilton beyond 5yrs at no more than $20m per year. Admittedly, that's pretty much as good as not wanting him.

Do you not have a cap? Or does it all come from Peter's bottomless pit and therefore you could care less?

[TradeAngelos]

I bow to your knowledge and ability to work in google docs.

Did I say anywhere that I didn't want a $120m payroll in 2013? The discussion has been, as always, Josh Hamilton and Zach Grienke. I assume those are the guys you want. My stance is that I don't want to be paying either of those guys $20m+ in 2018, 2019, and 2020. That is all.

What PA can or can not afford means nothing to me, but please keep trying to label me as someone who doesn't want to see payroll increases. Do you think I have some invested interest in putting more money in PA's pocket?

All I've ever said was that I didn't want Hamilton beyond 5yrs at no more than $20m per year. Admittedly, that's pretty much as good as not wanting him.

Do you not have a cap? Or does it all come from Peter's bottomless pit and therefore you could care less?

LOL you love the hyperbole and putting things in people's mouth you don't agree with don't you? We just want spend $200 million using Pet's "bottomless pit of money!" Yay!! That is what makes you look stupid when trying to argue your point, because NO ONE has said anything of the sort. Ever.

I think the Orioles can afford $120 million a year in salary, probably more but we will just leave it at that for now since you need a specific number.

I also wouldn't pay Hamilton more than $120 million.

Is that clear enough for you or do I need to repeat myself?

Since Hamilton and Grienke are not options according to you, who ARE some options next year, or the year after? Will anyone EVER be an option?

And good business models don't structure things on a year to year basis, they plan things out for the multiple years to plan accordingly with their budget. Professional sports teams are no different. Obviously things will fluctuate a little bit but if you aren't looking into the future and trying to stay one step ahead there is a problem.