Long Szymborski article on the O’s

[Frobby]

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-orioles-are-having-a-great-last-place-season/

For some reason I’m having trouble cutting and pasting quotes from this article.   It’s a good take and a pretty sunny take on what the Orioles accomplished in 2019, as the title suggests.   

[Philip]

I would like somebody who knows such things to take a look at the pictures acquired that turned out to be productive. I don’t think they were just random pickups, I think they each had something that the FO thought could be fixed or developed or improved. I’d love to know what that was, or if they were just lucky acquisitions.

[Hallas]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

I would like somebody who knows such things to take a look at the pictures acquired that turned out to be productive. I don’t think they were just random pickups, I think they each had something that the FO thought could be fixed or developed or improved. I’d love to know what that was, or if they were just lucky acquisitions.

I got the sense that they put flyers out on anyone with a functioning Major League arm, and saw what stuck.  I don't know if "luck" is the right word here because they cast such a wide net that there was bound to be something useful in there.

[wildcard]

Szymborski  promotes the idea of trading Villar and Mancini.  While this is not a unique idea,  it still falls under that category of  "What do the O's get in return" for me.   The O's want players that will be part of their next contending team.  If these two can help them acquire future contributors to that goal then they should go.  If the offers are underwhelming then they should stay and contribute to the growth of the overall team in 2020.   Its all about the return.

[sportsfan8703]

“Dan” is always a good read. I’m not a big twitter person but he’s someone to check in on when you reach the end of the internet.

Not really any new info here outside the three year future projection for Mancini.

We’ve all pretty much beaten the dead horse on the trades. At this point I believe that Mancini and Villar, mean more to us than what they would bring back in a trade. A lot more. Not just as faces of our team but I think they tie the lineup together. This will allow Mountcastle, Hays, Diaz, etc..., to come up and have some protection around them, and be in the right spot in the lineup.  

It’s been a long season, to scratch my baseball itch I’ve had to play some daily fantasy baseball. I’m not proud of it, but what it has done is forced me to follow the other teams really close. Comparatively, our lineup ain’t half bad. It’s downright average to maybe even slightly above, at the moment. Especially when we don’t trot out Davis in Martin in a lineup. 

With Means back, Bundy pitching better, Wojo doing Wojo things, Harvey up, we can actually string together some watchable games every 2-3/5 nights.  Add Mountcastle and Hays, and we could venture into being “entertaining” to watch in September. 

[LA2]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Szymborski  promotes the idea of trading Villar and Mancini.  While this is not a unique idea,  it still falls under that category of  "What do the O's get in return" for me.   The O's want players that will be part of their next contending team.  If these two can help them acquire future contributors to that goal then they should go.  If the offers are underwhelming then they should stay and contribute to the growth of the overall team in 2020.   Its all about the return.

I think you've misread what he wrote about Mancini. He actually suggests that the Orioles might as well keep him:

Quote

The team could theoretically trade Trey Mancini, who has largely rehabilitated his value from 2018, but I’m not sure they need to, considering that there are three additional seasons until he hits free agency, and that 1B/corner OF/DH types are simply not valued as highly in baseball as they once were, perhaps to the point that they’re currently undervalued (see the Edwin Encarnación trade).

He even says that Mancini is one reason (among several) to release Davis:

Quote

Mancini’s a regular ol’ good player and there’s nothing wrong with that, apart from his outfield play, where he’s likely a win worse every year. It’s yet another reason to release Davis; any time you’re playing Davis at first, you’re likely sticking Mancini in the outfield, where his lousiness has been proven beyond a reasonable doubt.

But you're right that he hopes the O's trade Villar, although he doesn't really give incisive arguments for doing so.

[wildcard]

53 minutes ago, LA2 said:

I think you've misread what he wrote about Mancini. He actually suggests that the Orioles might as well keep him:

He even says that Mancini is one reason (among several) to release Davis:

But you're right that he hopes the O's trade Villar, although he doesn't really give incisive arguments for doing so.

I see your point.  He mentions Mancini as a trade possibility but does not promote  the idea.  

[Luke-OH]

6 hours ago, Philip said:

I would like somebody who knows such things to take a look at the pictures acquired that turned out to be productive. I don’t think they were just random pickups, I think they each had something that the FO thought could be fixed or developed or improved. I’d love to know what that was, or if they were just lucky acquisitions.

I'm assuming you mean pitchers, which productive pitchers are you speaking of? 

[Philip]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

I'm assuming you mean pitchers, which productive pitchers are you speaking of? 

Armstrong and Wojo specifically, but Chandler Shepherd seems to be doing well also. Means isn’t a new acquisition but the change in his approach may be due to new analysis so I put him in the group as well.

am I reading too much into modest success?

[Moose Milligan]

I thought it was good.  And it gave accurate reasoning as to why there's some hope on the horizon.

[Ohfan67]

34 minutes ago, Philip said:

Armstrong and Wojo specifically, but Chandler Shepherd seems to be doing well also. Means isn’t a new acquisition but the change in his approach may be due to new analysis so I put him in the group as well.

am I reading too much into modest success?

There was extensive discussion of Means' offseason training, work on his change up, etc., on the board with links to several extensive articles with interviews. I bet if you go back into those threads you will find that you commented on those reports!

 

The Orioles have used an amazing number of pitchers this season. It's definitely been a throw them against the wall and see what sticks. Wojo is 30 and has managed to pitch 132 innings in the big leagues. He is what he is. It would be folly to expect anything from him in the future. Armstrong is a waiver wire pickup with an ERA+ of 93. He's about two bad games away from looking like a retread. These pickups have been made more out of desperation than some fancy analytics. This is bargain bin shopping where you don't have a lot of good choices and can't be very picky. 

[hoosiers]

I think the article touched on all the important facets of the season:

 - we've been among the worst teams in baseball, but not embarrassing - save for the HRs Allowed record

 - farm system has leaped from 26th to 12th.

 - Mancini and Means have been very good major league developments

The article did not mention two other storylines IMO:

 - the trading of Yastremski who is flourishing with the SF Giants and would be a comically poor development for a rebuilding team if he continues to produce.  I get that our FO considered him outside of our top five OF prospects at the time of the trade, but …. wow ...

 - the development of Santander who could be a major piece of our long term puzzle

Loved the Cashner best use as civil war extra.  

[Philip]

3 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

There was extensive discussion of Means' offseason training, work on his change up, etc., on the board with links to several extensive articles with interviews. I bet if you go back into those threads you will find that you commented on those reports!

 

The Orioles have used an amazing number of pitchers this season. It's definitely been a throw them against the wall and see what sticks. Wojo is 30 and has managed to pitch 132 innings in the big leagues. He is what he is. It would be folly to expect anything from him in the future. Armstrong is a waiver wire pickup with an ERA+ of 93. He's about two bad games away from looking like a retread. These pickups have been made more out of desperation than some fancy analytics. This is bargain bin shopping where you don't have a lot of good choices and can't be very picky. 

Regarding Means:  yes, Hardwork is important, but hard work without effective guidance is meaningless. And I was referring to the guidance. 

As far as the rest goes, it sounds as if you are suggesting that I am making too much of modest accomplishments and 1) they aren’t that great and 2) they probably won’t be lasting. And I’ll accept that, I was just wondering If maybe the Eyes Had seen something in those guys that no one else saw.

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

I think the article touched on all the important facets of the season:

 - we've been among the worst teams in baseball, but not embarrassing - save for the HRs Allowed record

 - farm system has leaped from 26th to 12th.

 - Mancini and Means have been very good major league developments

The article did not mention two other storylines IMO:

 - the trading of Yastremski who is flourishing with the SF Giants and would be a comically poor development for a rebuilding team if he continues to produce.  I get that our FO considered him outside of our top five OF prospects at the time of the trade, but …. wow ...

 - the development of Santander who could be a major piece of our long term puzzle

Loved the Cashner best use as civil war extra.  

Good points and comments.  A couple questions: What would the likely farm ranking be if we had a 5-10 pick instead of the number 1 overall?  And will the new regime get the credit with Santander, or will  Duquette?  I know that he battled injuries since the Rule V.

[atomic]

14 hours ago, Philip said:

I would like somebody who knows such things to take a look at the pictures acquired that turned out to be productive. I don’t think they were just random pickups, I think they each had something that the FO thought could be fixed or developed or improved. I’d love to know what that was, or if they were just lucky acquisitions.

I think they acquired almost every pitcher that was waived in the American League.  Other than guys whose arms were gone.