Is Sisco Toast?

[spiritof66]

10 minutes ago, weams said:

What types of defensive metrics are we attempting to evaluate Chance with? 

I am a strong believer in using data to evaluate (and project) players' performance, and have been since the very late 1970s/1980.  

I don't need metrics or quantitative analysis to know that Cedric Mullins has a terrible throwing arm, that Mark Trumbo is a terrible outfielder or that Chance Sisco is terrible at throwing out base-stealers and performs badly on tag plays at the plate. I know those things from watching them play baseball.If it were important to me how terrible these guys were in those defensive areas, I would look at a variety of ways to measure defensive efficiency, but I don't see how that's relevant to this discussion. 

To me, the only relevant questions about Sisco are whether he can improve his defense with some hard work during the off-season, and whether he might be better suited to another defensive position (where he'd have to hit better than he has so far to have much of a major league career). Maybe there are measurements or data in the public domain that could help with those questions, but if so I'm not aware of them. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I am a strong believer in using data to evaluate (and project) players' performance, and have been since the very late 1970s/1980.  

I don't need metrics or quantitative analysis to know that Cedric Mullins has a terrible throwing arm, that Mark Trumbo is a terrible outfielder or that Chance Sisco is terrible at throwing out base-stealers and performs badly on tag plays at the plate. I know those things from watching them play baseball.If it were important to me how terrible these guys were in those defensive areas, I would look at a variety of ways to measure defensive efficiency, but I don't see how that's relevant to this discussion. 

To me, the only relevant questions about Sisco are whether he can improve his defense with some hard work during the off-season, and whether he might be better suited to another defensive position (where he'd have to hit better than he has so far to have much of a major league career). Maybe there are measurements or data in the public domain that could help with those questions, but if so I'm not aware of them. 

And I still believe in option C, in which he hits enough to make up for the defense.

[spiritof66]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

And I still believe in option C, in which he hits enough to make up for the defense.

As I said before, I think the Orioles' catching situation, while disappointing, needs no changes in personnel for the next year or two. If both our guys are OPSing .600 next year, I may feel differently, but even then it wouldn't be worth giving up anything in trade or shelling out a salary much over the minimum. 

[Moose Milligan]

I've seen enough of Sisco but with Rustchman in the wings I'm not really concerned with who our catchers are from here on out for the next couple of years.  If they want to keep running a Severino/Sisco tandem for a couple years, that's fine.  

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Wilkerson was never a top 100 prospect. Fair or not it is normal for people to have higher expectations of players who are highly touted. 

Not a top 100 prospect?    Wilkerson was an absolute nobody!   Did he ever even make the OH top 30?    Pretty sure expectations for Wilkerson were about as low as they can go.   

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not a top 100 prospect?    Wilkerson was an absolute nobody!   Did he ever even make the OH top 30?    Pretty sure expectations for Wilkerson were about as low as they can go.   

I like Wilkerson in the Flaherty role.

[eddie83]

21 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not a top 100 prospect?    Wilkerson was an absolute nobody!   Did he ever even make the OH top 30?    Pretty sure expectations for Wilkerson were about as low as they can go.   

Which is why someone like Sisco has more eyeballs on him.  

[OsEatAlEast]

Since he's only 24 there is still a little time for him to come around. I kind of see him being like Alex Gordon of KC at least offensively as far as being disappointing at first. I also think he'll hit enough to warrant a mlb roster spot fairly soon. 

[thezeroes]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Not a top 100 prospect?    Wilkerson was an absolute nobody!   Did he ever even make the OH top 30?    Pretty sure expectations for Wilkerson were about as low as they can go.   

Wilkerson was drafted in the 8th round in 2014.  Out of the 30 players drafted in that round 8 have played in MLB.  Total of 0.7 WAR, or 0.1 per major leaguer.  Austin Slater has a 1.7 WAR while Stevie Wilkerson has a -1.2 WAR  22 of the players drafted in hat round have not made the MLB

[thezeroes]

Chance Sisco was drafted in the Second Round of the 2013 June Amateur Draft.  Of the 34 matching player(s). 16 played in the majors (47%). Total of 9.3 WAR, or 0.6 per major leaguer.  Per BR Chance is eighth in total WAR at .01.  18 players have NOT played in MLB to date.

[Aristotelian]

It may be that most 2nd round picks don't make it. We can still be disappointed when they fail, especially when they have risen through the system. Regardless of where he was drafted, I think Sisco was #3 or so at one time.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Aristotelian said:

It may be that most 2nd round picks don't make it. We can still be disappointed when they fail, especially when they have risen through the system. Regardless of where he was drafted, I think Sisco was #3 or so at one time.

Big difference between being disappointed and calling it a wasted pick.

[thezeroes]

5 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

I think Sisco was #3 or so at one time.

In a poor farm system.

Baseball America

Pre-2017#57

Pre-2018#68

Baseball America: The best source for minor league news and info

Major League Baseball

Pre-2017#99

Prospect ratings from Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com

Baseball Prospectus

Pre-2015#101

Pre-2017#76

Prospect ratings from Baseball Prospectus

[atomic]

1 minute ago, thezeroes said:

In a poor farm system.

Baseball America ranked him as high as #57 of all prospects in baseball,  

[24fps]

I hope Chance gets it together beginning tomorrow because October through February is a very long time for smart guys lIke Elias and Sig to spend trying to figure out where to allocate resources.

Does anyone think that prior draft status has any bearing on future personnel decisions at this stage of the rebuild?  I sure don't.  I think Sisco's chances hinge on performance over the next month and whether he has a coach or two in his corner making the case that he deserves a little more investment.