Does O's management want to win in Sept?

[wildbillhiccup]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t see how we will improve the pitching enough to be anywhere close to .500.    .400 would be an achievement.   

Agree with this. Even if they're willing to start the service time clocks on Mountcastle, Hays, etc. next year there's no immediate pitching help on the way. I think 2021 is the year they shoot for .500. 

[DrungoHazewood]

56 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yep.  That was what I was telling folks when they said this year's team was somehow going to lose more than last year's team. 

It's not over 'til it's over.  They have to go at least 3-22 (.120) to beat last year's team.  The 2002 Orioles finished 4-32 (.111).

But, yea, the plexiglass principle.  A team that strongly declines in one year tends to improve the next.  And I think it was 1942 (Phillies) the last time a team failed to win 50 in consecutive seasons. I'm guessing the '42 Phillies had total revenues lower than the MLB minimum salary today.

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

It's not over 'til it's over.  They have to go at least 3-22 (.120) to beat last year's team.  The 2002 Orioles finished 4-32 (.111).

But, yea, the plexiglass principle.  A team that strongly declines in one year tends to improve the next.  And I think it was 1942 (Phillies) the last time a team failed to win 50 in consecutive seasons. I'm guessing the '42 Phillies had total revenues lower than the MLB minimum salary today.

I'm looking at 2-23 to not be worse.  Pretty sure that's doable.

[El Gordo]

What's the difference between the # 1 and #3 picks? Worth demoralizing the players?

[Redskins Rick]

 

[weams]

4 hours ago, Dipper9 said:

Well, Elias still has Davis on the roster, so he is "kinda" influencing the on field results.  Now Hyde, to his credit, is not playing him, so I'll give you that Hyde has more influence on wins than Elias, but Elias is not completely out of the picture.

They gonna have 40 guys on the bench this September my good buddy? If not Chris Davis means zero. 

[weams]

1 hour ago, El Gordo said:

What's the difference between the # 1 and #3 picks? Worth demoralizing the players?

Harper v.  Machado

[weams]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

So I'm not select? 

Quote

USDA Prime, Choice or Select which is the order of grade from the highest to lowest.

You are definitely Select.

[Tx Oriole]

3 hours ago, Redskins Rick said:

Mix in some butter, salt and pepper, even a little old bay, and damn good.

You got that right.

[atomic]

5 hours ago, weams said:

Harper v.  Machado

Beckham.vs Hosmer.

[LA2]

10 hours ago, Tx Oriole said:

You got that right.

Garlic too! Actually no: I thought you were talking about steak for some reason (Prime, Select, etc.).

[LA2]

On 9/3/2019 at 11:23 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

 

The Orioles are on pace for a nearly -300 run differential. To get to .500 they'd need to make up 300 runs.  That's lowering the team ERA by 1.00 run/game, while also scoring 1.00 run/game more than they have this year.  One half of that would be a pretty big leap.  30 wins is on the outside edge of what's plausible.  Only a small handful of teams have ever improved by 30 games in one season.  

The two teams known to history as "miracle" teams (the 1914 Braves and the '69 Mets) improved by less than 30 games.  The '12 Orioles only improved by 24 wins.  The '89 Orioles improved by 33, and I'm pretty sure that's one of the top three or five totals in history.

Calling people trolls when they're skeptical that the '20 Orioles will make an historic leap forward is ludicrous.

I don't disagree with the overall point that skepticism about the team playing .500 next year is far from being a troll. I just want to point out that, as I'm sure you know, the relation between W/L record and run-differential isn't categorical. Even if one looks only at this season's standings, the Brewers are 4 W's over .500 with a -38 run-differential (RD) and the Phillies are a remarkable +7 W's with -4 RD; they are only 4 and 2.5 games out of WC status, respectively.

Even less linear is the fact that the Brewers' W/L is only a 1/2-game worse than the Diamondbacks despite being 124 runs behind in RD (-38 vs. +76). And the Phillies are 2.5 games up on the Mets despite being -24 RD worse. In the same division, the Nats are a probably insurmountable 6.5 games behind the Braves despite a +22 RD superiority.

Our cherished O's of 2012 went 93-69 despite scoring only SEVEN runs more than they gave up, which is even more impressive than the scrappy Why-Not? team of 1989, which won six less games (87-75) with a 15-run better RD (+22).

There is, of course, a strong correlation between RD and W/L overall, but the number of exceptions is not insignificant--and it happens every season. It would be very unlikely, but not really too amazing, that is, if next year's Orioles somehow fall far short of the zero RD you posited and still put up a W/L record that approaches .500.

At the same time, I'm not going to call anyone a troll just because that fact doesn't inspire him or her to a fine madness.

[sportsfan8703]

Have you seen our pitching staff?  Hard to win >33% of games with that. 

We’ve got some good things going though. The lineup really came on. The bullpen is pitching much better. Givens has a 2.87 ERA his last 30. Mountcastle had a big AAA season. 

Grow the bats. Buy the arms. 

[Roll Tide]

On 9/2/2019 at 10:08 AM, weams said:

Nope. They will play their hearts out. All of them. And Elias is currently uninvolved. 

I think the last sentence is a little naive. I think there is a unified plan between Hyde and Elias. I don't think the players are tanking and I don't think Hyde manages to lose games. But uninvolved I find it hard to believe.

[FuManchu]

17 hours ago, El Gordo said:

What's the difference between the # 1 and #3 picks? Worth demoralizing the players?

From the 1965 to 2012 draft its about a 9 WAR deference over a career in terms of the average and about 10 WAR difference over a career in terms of the median value. From 1990 to 2012 its about 16 and 12.5 respectively.