Hangouter's Top 30 Prospects lists

[weams]

7 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

A general prospect question:

Does anyone know of any guys who were like Carmona, Encarnacion, Sparks, etc. and put up bad hitting lines for a few years in the low minors but were toolsy enough to have potential and eventually put it all together and became successful big league hitters?

I can't think of any, but I'm sure they exist.

Outside of steroid guys? No. I don't  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

Outside of steroid guys? No. I don't  

Lorenzo Cain?

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Higher level, there are plenty of flaws that really only get exposed against advanced competition. It’s not an exact science projecting hit tool or command at lower levels. Because while there are physical, visible components (bat speed, looseness, swing path, pitcher’s mechanics and effort level) to each of those assessments, the ability to have command of all your pitches and have good pitch recognition/zone judgement isn’t really tested until the player faces advanced competition.

Ok so the guy at AAA at 25 would be ranked higher than the the 23 year old at AA, even with identical FVs, because the older guy is facing tougher competition.

thats concrete, thank you.

[Il BuonO]

On 10/30/2019 at 5:11 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Neither have I honestly, I just remember him looking rough out there and Buck talking about the second deck.

Look at you, citing Buck as your reference!

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Look at you, citing Buck as your reference!

I'll cite anything other than Bleacher Report if it supports my opinion.

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

Ok so the guy at AAA at 25 would be ranked higher than the the 23 year old at AA, even with identical FVs, because the older guy is facing tougher competition.

thats concrete, thank you.

Yeah, if they have identical FVs. That means you’ve already accounted for the difference in age  when you are projecting out their future skill set. The 25 year old has less chance of improving command/pitchability than the 23 year old, all other things equal but if they have the same FV, that’s already been taken into consideration. 

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

A general prospect question:

Does anyone know of any guys who were like Carmona, Encarnacion, Sparks, etc. and put up bad hitting lines for a few years in the low minors but were toolsy enough to have potential and eventually put it all together and became successful big league hitters?

I can't think of any, but I'm sure they exist.

Ketal Marte probably qualifies, just off the top of my head.

[Aristotelian]

If Hays and Harvey are 7-10, I'd say the future is pretty bright. Both have already made an impact at the MLB level. Granted both have some injury concerns, but Harvey looks like closer of the future and Hays has shown he can catch the ball and hit a little bit.

[LookinUp]

On 10/31/2019 at 7:58 AM, Luke-OH said:

So this is an interesting topic of floor vs ceiling and do you rank players based on a projected MLB value or by the player's fit with their current team's status and needs.

I rank players on projected value, it's more back of the hand than exact numbers, but for example...

Good but not great DSL OF prospect - 80% chance of no MLB value (0 WAR), 5% chance AAA depth/up and down (.5 WAR over team controlled years), 5% chance 4th OF (3 WAR), 5% chance regular (12 WAR), 4% chance above average regular ( 18 WAR), 1% chance star (30 WAR) = 1.8 WAR

Relief Prospect who was replacement level in their first taste of MLB ball, but has good stuff - 25% chance no value(0 WAR) 25% chance up and down/depth (.5 WAR), 25% chance middle relief (3 WAR), 15% chance good middle relief (4 WAR), 10% chance setup (6 WAR) = 2.07 WAR

So while the DSL prospect has a 10% chance of being worth 12+ WAR and the relief prospect has 0% chance, I'd rank the relief prospect higher. Now, if the Orioles had a chance to trade for either of these two players, I'd pick the DSL prospect every day of the week given the Orioles situation. But in a prospect ranking, the reliever comes first for me and I'd aggressively upgrade the DSL prospect's ranking as he got out of rookie ball and the risk profile got more favorable. 

Kind of surprised this didn't start more conversation. It's a perfectly logical way to essentially compare apples to bananas. The only way to do that consistently is to come up with some kind of system like this. I would point out that the bolded line also highlights an alternative way to do it, which is (I think) slightly more similar to Tony's approach. I kind of like the "who would I rather have in the system" qualitative side of things. So if they're close on the list, I might err on the side of the DSL guy over the higher probability FV of the AA reliever even though I'd essentially be arguing (especially over large samples) against FV. The real truth of these lists is they're really better placed into blocks of names than sequential orders of names, but the masses, including me, love the sequential lists, so that's what has to be done I guess.

[LookinUp]

On 10/31/2019 at 8:51 AM, Es4M11 said:

For those with more knowledge than me: which prospect in the system has the highest potential ceiling?

Is it a given that the answer is Rutschman? I tend to think maybe DL Hall could be the answer if he can figure out how to consistently control his stuff.

I think the answer is still AR, but it wouldn't surprise me if Hall (or someone else here) ends up a better player. As highly rated as AR is, he's still just out of college, so he does carry some risk.

[LookinUp]

On 10/31/2019 at 3:11 PM, WalkWithElias said:

Curious to see how high Baumann lands on the official list since you compared him to the #99 prospect on the BA Top 100. There are a few guys we'd usually consider higher ceiling that he'd need to leap to get there. 

I am too. Thinking I may have him too high on my personal list. He really popped this year, but the transition to a #2/3 type SP from a #4/5 guy is huge. I'm guessing he's still more likely a #4/5 guy or great bullpen arm, but the upside is apparent and his development is not yet complete.

[Luke-OH]

14 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Kind of surprised this didn't start more conversation. It's a perfectly logical way to essentially compare apples to bananas. The only way to do that consistently is to come up with some kind of system like this. I would point out that the bolded line also highlights an alternative way to do it, which is (I think) slightly more similar to Tony's approach. I kind of like the "who would I rather have in the system" qualitative side of things. So if they're close on the list, I might err on the side of the DSL guy over the higher probability FV of the AA reliever even though I'd essentially be arguing (especially over large samples) against FV. The real truth of these lists is they're really better placed into blocks of names than sequential orders of names, but the masses, including me, love the sequential lists, so that's what has to be done I guess.

The bolded comment is 100% correct, there is a lot more nuance than Player A is better than Player B because he's ranked one spot higher. 

[weams]

2 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I am too. Thinking I may have him too high on my personal list. He really popped this year, but the transition to a #2/3 type SP from a #4/5 guy is huge. I'm guessing he's still more likely a #4/5 guy or great bullpen arm, but the upside is apparent and his development is not yet complete.

If  I could select a player to take from the Orioles and my choices were Baumann and Wells and Lowther, I'd take Baumann. 

[Enjoy Terror]

I know everyone is "in" on Akin enough to put him on their prospect lists, but am I wrong for thinking he's more of a Brad Bergesen type player?

i.e. Not really a prospect but getting himself to the majors anyway, and ultimately everyone concludes that his stuff just doesn't play at that level and he goes to Japan after 1.5 years of putting up average to below average starts for the O's?

Because that's where I am.

[Luke-OH]

31 minutes ago, Enjoy Terror said:

I know everyone is "in" on Akin enough to put him on their prospect lists, but am I wrong for thinking he's more of a Brad Bergesen type player?

i.e. Not really a prospect but getting himself to the majors anyway, and ultimately everyone concludes that his stuff just doesn't play at that level and he goes to Japan after 1.5 years of putting up average to below average starts for the O's?

Because that's where I am.

What about him makes you think that?