This has me worried...

[Fan4Life]

According to Cots :

Giambi 22M

Abreau 16M

Pettitte 16M

Ivan Rodriguez 13M

Mussina 11M

Pavano 11M

Are all due to come off the books after this season. Pavano has a club option that wont get picked up.

Still think they cant afford CC, Tex, and some bullpen help?

AND... revenues from the new Stadium... AND... less money to pay out for revenue sharing because the new stadium expenses count against their payroll expenditures.. they're going to be in excellent shape.

[Sports Guy]

According to Cots :

Giambi 22M

Abreau 16M

Pettitte 16M

Ivan Rodriguez 13M

Mussina 11M

Pavano 11M

Are all due to come off the books after this season. Pavano has a club option that wont get picked up.

Still think they cant afford CC, Tex, and some bullpen help?

I see the Yanks getting CC and KRod and potentially Darvish.

I think you may see them trade for Howard or Fielder.

[VeveJones007]

According to Cots :

Giambi 22M

Abreau 16M

Pettite 16 M

Mussina 11M

Pavano 11M

Are all due to come off the books after this season. Pavano has a club option that wont get picked up.

Still think they cant afford CC, Tex, and some bullpen help?

So they have to fill holes at 1B, RF, and at least 2 SP (not to mention bullpen help). All the more reason to sign Dunn to save some money to put toward filling other needs.

By the way, I deleted Pudge from that list since they just picked him up as a rental and are only saving the money off Farnsworth's contract.

[VeveJones007]

I see the Yanks getting CC and KRod and potentially Darvish.

I think you may see them trade for Howard or Fielder.

I think this scenario is a lot more likely than them spending $150 million on Tex.

[Malike]

So they have have to fill holes at 1B, RF, and at least 2 SP. All the more reason to sign Dunn to save some money to put toward filling other needs.

By the way, I deleted Pudge from that list since they just picked him up as a rental and are only saving the money off Farnsworths contract.

Melky will be back up in the bigs next season, Tex mans first base, They wont need two starting pitchers, they have Hughes, Wang, Kennedy, Chamberlain, who will all be in the rotation. They have a 209M payroll this season, it will not be a stretch to see them get that up to 240-250 and still Sign CC, Tex, Garland, or whoever they want.

I'm not suggesting its the right thing to do. But you must consider the possibility, and you give them too much credit. Cashman was the only reason they havent gone bat crap crazy spending, and trust me, Hank blames this seasons failures on Cashman. We can only hope Hank starts to make baseball decisions, he'll spend like his old man did and hopefully destroy the farm in the process.

[Malike]

I see the Yanks getting CC and KRod and potentially Darvish.

I think you may see them trade for Howard or Fielder.

I agree, but SG do you think in your opinion it would be out of the realm of possibility to see the Yanks wind up with a 240-250M payroll if Hank starts running things? He clearly has made backhanded slaps at Cashman about the way he's doing things.

[Fan4Life]

Melky will be back up in the bigs next season, Tex mans first base, They wont need two starting pitchers, they have Hughes, Wang, Kennedy, Chamberlain, who will all be in the rotation. They have a 209M payroll this season, it will not be a stretch to see them get that up to 240-250 and still Sign CC, Tex, Garland, or whoever they want.

I'm not suggesting its the right thing to do. But you must consider the possibility, and you give them too much credit. Cashman was the only reason they havent gone bat crap crazy spending, and trust me, Hank blames this seasons failures on Cashman. We can only hope Hank starts to make baseball decisions, he'll spend like his old man did and hopefully destroy the farm in the process.

Hughes and Kennedy aren't getting them into the playoffs next season. I would use them as bait to fill other needs and sign the pitching they need. Money isn't an object.

[Flip217]

What's their payroll now -- like, $218 million or so? Most in the league, right? I guess you can't just buy you way into the playoffs (though there's still some games to play yet).

He can spend all he wants but he can't avoid things like what's happened this year -- injuries, underperformance, other teams ascending, etc.

[Sports Guy]

I agree, but SG do you think in your opinion it would be out of the realm of possibility to see the Yanks wind up with a 240-250M payroll if Hank starts running things? He clearly has made backhanded slaps at Cashman about the way he's doing things.

Its possible but its not probable...He would def need to fire Cashman before that would happen.

[Fan4Life]

Its possible but its not probable...He would def need to fire Cashman before that would happen.

They're shedding almost $100M going into next season. They need:

2 SP

a Closer?

1B

C (Posada?)

bullpen help

Could you fix all that with $150M?

[nadecir]

He'll have to turn down the most $ because Angelos will match or even exceed the Yankees offer. Ditto for the Sux. He won't let Tex go to a division rival.

The worries are the Mets and the Angels.

I've read the Yankees are looking at Dunn instead of Tex anyway...

To think that the Orioles could outbid the Yankees or the Red Sox for any player is pure fantasy. The Yankees have much more money than the Orioles and it is not even close. The Yankees will have a new stadium next year, and they probably could afford a $300 million dollar payroll. With the money that the Yanks have coming off their payroll, the Yankees could afford Sheets, Sabathia, and Teixeira if they really wanted them. Do you really think the Yankees would prefer picking up a 38 year old Jason Giambi's option or signing a 29 year old Mark Teixeira with a higher OPS and gold glove defense?

Even if the Yankees don't bid on Teixeira, there are other large market teams who will. The Angels will bid to keep Teixeira. The Mets probably will. These teams have much more money to spend than the Orioles.

Hometown or not, it would take a miracle for Tex to consider the Orioles seriously. Here are the facts:

• The Orioles will probably finish last in the AL East this season, with no real assurances they will move up anytime soon. Roy has talked to Tex's officials and "Mark does not believe that the Orioles will compete for 3-4 years and maybe not even then. He wants to be on a contending team NEXT year."
• The Orioles rank 19th in revenue in the league, and two of their division rivals rank #1 and number #2 in revenue.
• The Orioles are in the midst of a historic attendance decline, losing over 40 percent of their attendance in ten years.
• The Baltimore area media market is much smaller than any of the top teams, and the Yankees' and Red Sox' television numbers dwarf the Orioles television numbers

Even if the Orioles could outbid any of the top revenue teams for Tex (which I doubt they can), would Teixeira seriously consider a team like this? Honestly, if you were Tex would you seriously consider a similar offer from a team like the Orioles even if it were a bigger offer, but close to an offer from a large market, perennial contending team?

What has that happened since 2000 when the Orioles are bidding against the large market teams? We've lost out on Vladimar Guerrero when the Angels entered the bidding, we lost out on Paul Konerko bidding against the Chicago White Sox, we lost out on Carl Pavano bidding against the Yankees and we lost Mike Mussina to the Yankees.

Contrary to popular opinion, we are closer to a small market team than we are closer to the Yankees or Red Sox. McPhail traded a good reliever in Chad Bradford partially because, according to McPhail himself, "I can use the dough." Does that sound like a large market team to you?

Regardless of what Angelos wants, the odds of Mark Teixeira signing with the Orioles are slim. The way for the Orioles to compete long term is stay out of the free agency market this season for the big budget players, and invest in player development instead. We just cannot go head to head with teams that have huge financial advantages over us and play their game in the free agent market. We are not one player away from competing. One mistake of a bad signing of a free agent over a long term would just kill us for years to come.

[Sports Guy]

They're shedding almost $100M going into next season. They need:

2 SP

a Closer

1B

C (Posada?)

bullpen help

Could you fix all that with $150M?

Good chance they are re-signing Giambi and you have to wonder if Posada has to go to first.

Rivera is signed through 2010, so they don't need a closer.

The Yanks has said in the past that KRod is a target for them as their future closer..The question is, would KRod sign with a team where he isn't the closer immediately?

[Sports Guy]

To think that the Orioles could outbid the Yankees or the Red Sox for any player is pure fantasy. The Yankees have much more money than the Orioles and it is not even close. The Yankees will have a new stadium next year, and they probably could afford a $300 million dollar payroll. With the money that the Yanks have coming off their payroll, the Yankees could afford Sheets, Sabathia, and Teixeira if they really wanted them. Do you really think the Yankees would prefer picking up a 38 year old Jason Giambi's option or signing a 29 year old Mark Teixeira with a higher OPS and gold glove defense?

Even if the Yankees don't bid on Teixeira, there are other large market teams who will. The Angels will bid to keep Teixeira. The Mets probably will. These teams have much more money to spend than the Orioles.

Hometown or not, it would take a miracle for Tex to consider the Orioles seriously. Here are the facts:

• The Orioles will probably finish last in the AL East this season, with no real assurances they will move up anytime soon. Roy has talked to Tex's officials and "Mark does not believe that the Orioles will compete for 3-4 years and maybe not even then. He wants to be on a contending team NEXT year."
• The Orioles rank 19th in revenue in the league, and two of their division rivals rank #1 and number #2 in revenue.
• The Orioles are in the midst of a historic attendance decline, losing over 40 percent of their attendance in ten years.
• The Baltimore area media market is much smaller than any of the top teams, and the Yankees' and Red Sox' television numbers dwarf the Orioles television numbers

Even if the Orioles could outbid any of the top revenue teams for Tex (which I doubt they can), would Teixeira seriously consider a team like this? Honestly, if you were Tex would you seriously consider a similar offer from a team like the Orioles even if it were a bigger offer, but close to an offer from a large market, perennial contending team?

What has that happened since 2000 when the Orioles are bidding against the large market teams? We've lost out on Vladimar Guerrero when the Angels entered the bidding, we lost out on Paul Konerko bidding against the Chicago White Sox, we lost out on Carl Pavano bidding against the Yankees and we lost Mike Mussina to the Yankees.

Contrary to popular opinion, we are closer to a small market team than we are closer to the Yankees or Red Sox. McPhail traded a good reliever in Chad Bradford partially because, according to McPhail himself, "I can use the dough." Does that sound like a large market team to you?

Regardless of what Angelos wants, the odds of Mark Teixeira signing with the Orioles are slim. The way for the Orioles to compete long term is stay out of the free agency market this season for the big budget players, and invest in player development instead. We just cannot go head to head with teams that have huge financial advantages over us and play their game in the free agent market. We are not one player away from competing. One mistake of a bad signing of a free agent over a long term would just kill us for years to come.

You continue to say this but it is completely wrong.

For ONE PLAYER, the Orioles can bid with ANY TEAM if they choose to...There us no doubt about that.

[TonySoprano]

You continue to say this but it is completely wrong.

For ONE PLAYER, the Orioles can bid with ANY TEAM if they choose to...There us no doubt about that.

Can, maybe; but won't, probably. Nadecir made numerous valid points, IMO. I'll tell you what, SG, for fun, I'll make you a personal bet on Tex. If the O's sign him, you can have my signature block for a week and vice versa.

[B-more]

How much in luxury tax do the Yanks pay this season based on the $200+ payroll? Got to remember that is also taken into account on their overall budget. So even if they can afford a $300 mill budget, with the luxury tax that may mean their actual roster budget is likely at $250 million or less?

My guess is that C.C. is likely their #1 target and they would also get into major bidding for Darvish. I believe that would also mean a high posting fee to be able to get Darvish.

They will also try to get KRod and possibly other bullpen help.

I think there is also a good chance they decide to trade for Fielder by trading Hughes and others. That means they may not go after Tex and Dunn. If they target Fielder, that may still mean they could go for Dunn as a DH but it would rule out Tex completely.

If the Yanks do go after Tex hard, I still think there is a limit to how much they would bid for him so if Angelos really wants him, I think Angelos would push to fork out the cash to match or slightly top the Yanks offer.

I also refuse to say we should not pursue top free agents when they are available. We are not the A's. We can afford to pay for free agents. We just need to be smarter and stop wasting money on middle-tier guys that are not close to being worth their contracts. We have to continue to grow our farm system and not deplete it unless we're actually a playoff team. Even if we trade young guys when we're a playoff team, we should find creative ways to restock it asap.

Remember in one offseason we could've afforded Vlad along with Tejeda. We should target top tier free agents that are young enough to still be very good for a few years. We can't always wait until we're a player away to target free agents. Many times the type of player we need is not available and there is no guarantee that we can sign the player even though we're a more competitive team at that time. The signing a free agent when we're a player away should be more reserved for those older expensive players that only have one or two good seasons left in them, not for younger free agent talents like Vlad, Tex and any other young ones coming up in the future.