Waiving/non-tendering Villar: pro or con?

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Neither ...into the greedy owners pockets.

Plus they had a surplus of more than $120 million this year!

Source please.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, OrioleDog said:

Just for context, Villar had a peak year aided in part by getting to play 162 games/714 plate appearances.  In general I believe only legitimate MVP candidates should really play that much.  He had a very good year, but I was curious to flip his WAR to a rate stat and see how it compared with some other 2019's.  I'm just using Fangraphs figures here - Villar's 4.0 fWAR in 714 PA's works out to a WAR/600 PA's of 3.36.  That's just ahead of Cavan Biggio and Adalberto Mondesi.

Here are some 2019 part-time infielders with more than 3.36 WAR/600.  Tommy Edman, Max Muncy, Bo Bichette, Brandon Lowe, Howie Kendrick, Kolten Wong are all far ahead, above 4.00.  Tommy LaStella, Jon Berti, Eric Sogard and Luis Arraez are in the 3.4-3.7 range. 

I think these are more the kind of puzzle pieces the lineup analysts in the front offices feeding the managers want, especially if you can curate guys with disparate skills, whether the classic Lowenstein/Roenicke model or newer "He can handle velocity but not spin, or vice versa" topics that have long been known but probably never vetted with the degree of precision Statcast has made possible in the last few years.

 

 

 

They will replace Villar with a rule 5 20 year old with Sally League experience. That guy wont hit his weight! And the team with pocket the money saved.

Heck, they could pay Davis off and release him with the left over payroll allocation from 2019.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I go with Elias is incompetent until he proves otherwise. As I've said 3 or 4 times since yesterday evening. He's done nothing so far personnel wise to prove he's a competent GM! Anybody couldve drafted AR in the 1st round. The Cashner move was trash, he couldn't get anything done at the deadline. Beyond Villar, Alberto was batting .320+ , Mancini had a big year, Bundy was pitching well! I won't buy "He Had NO Chips".

I won't believe they didn't know that they werent going to tender him due to salary! If that the case you get something at the deadline.

 

I think the Hernaiz pick in the fifth round was genius.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Source please.

They have their share of the national tv money $120 million dollars, They reported MASN shares at $60 million per team 4 or 5 years ago. Plus they had revenue sharing money from the rich!

I could search for the two quotes again ...But Im sure you've seen them.

Also this from Forbes https://www.forbes.com/teams/baltimore-orioles/#5b8dfcbe76db

[Luke-OH]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I go with Elias is incompetent until he proves otherwise. As I've said 3 or 4 times since yesterday evening. He's done nothing so far personnel wise to prove he's a competent GM! Anybody couldve drafted AR in the 1st round. The Cashner move was trash, he couldn't get anything done at the deadline. Beyond Villar, Alberto was batting .320+ , Mancini had a big year, Bundy was pitching well! I won't buy "He Had NO Chips".

I won't believe they didn't know that they werent going to tender him due to salary! If that the case you get something at the deadline.

Do you disagree with anything in my post? You aren't refuting any of the points I made. You are just assuming an irrational actor. I don't think you get where Elias is by being an irrational actor. Just my honest opinion. I don't blame anyone for being upset, it's not a fun thing, but I'd argue it's also not an unexpected thing. The only thing in this turn of events that surprises me is that a team didn't push enough to acquire him before now, but that's teams being smart and reading the Orioles situation better than I did. 

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think the Hernaiz pick in the fifth round was genius.

Let me know when he's even a prospect! Right now he's just a name in a strong farm systen that was mostlt created by Duquette's group

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Luke-OH said:

Do you disagree with anything in my post? You aren't refuting any of the points I made. You are just assuming an irrational actor. I don't think you get where Elias is by being an irrational actor. Just my honest opinion. I don't blame anyone for being upset, it's not a fun thing, but I'd argue it's also not an unexpected thing. The only thing in this turn of events that surprises me is that a team didn't push enough to acquire him before now, but that's teams being smart and reading the Orioles situation better than I did. 

We've been speculating that this might happen for some time.  This shouldn't be a surprise for anyone here.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

They have their share of the national tv money $120 million dollars, They reported MASN shares at $60 million per team 4 or 5 years ago. Plus they had revenue sharing money from the rich!

I could search for the two quotes again ...But Im sure you've seen them.

Also this from Forbes https://www.forbes.com/teams/baltimore-orioles/#5b8dfcbe76db

The operating income includes those things and is -6.5M in the link you included. 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

Let me know when he's even a prospect! Right now he's just a name in a strong farm systen that was mostlt created by Duquette's group

So it's only a good pick if he pans out?

I disagree with your premise.

 

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Do you disagree with anything in my post? You aren't refuting any of the points I made. You are just assuming an irrational actor. I don't think you get where Elias is by being an irrational actor. Just my honest opinion. I don't blame anyone for being upset, it's not a fun thing, but I'd argue it's also not an unexpected thing. The only thing in this turn of events that surprises me is that a team didn't push enough to acquire him before now, but that's teams being smart and reading the Orioles situation better than I did. 

Wow ...okay!

Elias has done nothing personnel wise (broken record) that has made any impact.

They have the money to keep a 3 WAR player (For you Corn) and have plenty left over!

I'm discussing your points do we have to disagree to have a conversation?

The Orioles are a sad organization and despite a lot of claims of a new process are the same old joke..... I can't cuss as its against board rules. But only the Orioles could MUFF up dealing a player like Villar!

Apparently Elias is a stat geek and not a poker player. Why would any good GM pay for a guy that they knew the Orioles would cut loose!

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We've been speculating that this might happen for some time.  This shouldn't be a surprise for anyone here.

That doesnt make it a smart or rational move!

[Roll Tide]

6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

The operating income includes those things and is -6.5M in the link you included. 

Come on Luke...... The $120 million per season number is $40 million more than they spent last season. Even of you don't believe they are getting, pocketing ,or whatever $60 million from MASN.

Thats not counting the money that businesses bury with expenses to avoid the tax man etc.

 

Quote

Quote

but two people with direct knowledge of the deal said it was for seven years, through the 2028 season, and $5.1 billion.

M.L.B. also has media rights deals with Facebook, ESPN and Turner Sports. Its current contracts with ESPN (worth $5.6 billion) and Turner Sports ($2.6 billion) run through 2021.

Aug 22, 2019 - The Orioles, who control MASN, have been resisting the decision made ... That number reflected approximately $59 million in annual TV rights ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

That doesnt make it a smart or rational move!

I think it's a rational move given the constraints I feel he is operating under.

If I'm wrong and he has more payroll available that would slightly alter my take on the decision.

[Luke-OH]

5 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Wow ...okay!

Elias has done nothing personnel wise (broken record) that has made any impact.

They have the money to keep a 3 WAR player (For you Corn) and have plenty left over!

I'm discussing your points do we have to disagree to have a conversation?

The Orioles are a sad organization and despite a lot of claims of a new process are the same old joke..... I can't cuss as its against board rules. But only the Orioles could MUFF up dealing a player like Villar!

Apparently Elias is a stat geek and not a poker player. Why would any good GM pay for a guy that they knew the Orioles would cut loose!

Your main point is that you think Elias is acting irrationally, correct? Or that he's stupid? Or is it that greedy owners made him do it? That's what I'm trying to figure out. Again, I don't blame you for being upset. 

It's funny you mentioned poker, because putting Villar on waivers was a poker move through and through. 

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Come on Luke...... The $120 million per season number is $40 million more than they spent last season. Even of you don't believe they are getting, pocketing ,or whatever $60 million from MASN.

Thats not counting the money that businesses bury with expenses to avoid the tax man etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm just quoting the link you sent when I asked for a source. Teams have more expenditures than player salary.

Forbes hasn't done 2019 yet, but I'd imagine that operating income is higher than 2018, but income definitely dropped along with expenditures, so I doubt it's a big number.