Waiving/non-tendering Villar: pro or con?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

It was 3 seasons ago. Depending on the actual issue, if he tried to play through it, etc. Its a lot safer bet because he was 26 ...

Would you trade for Bundy without factoring in his TJ and shoulder issues?

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you trade for Bundy without factoring in his TJ and shoulder issues?

My thought on pitchers is they are ahead of the game with a successful recovery from TJ

I think Bundy is a #4 starter in a good rotation. I think he's worth 1 of an organizations 5-7 ish and 1 25-30 ish.

I think there is a market! We shall see

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

My thought on pitchers is they are ahead of the game with a successful recovery from TJ

I think Bundy is a #4 starter in a good rotation. I think he's worth 1 of an organizations 5-7 ish and 1 25-30 ish.

I think there is a market! We shall see

My thought on pitchers is that a TJ surgery tends to hold up for six or so years.

[hoosiers]

I posted some time ago that the most obvious way to lower the 2019 payroll is to move Villar.  I support this decision by Elias with the following thoughts:

 - arbitration is about figuring out a player's value under that system and then comparing that number to the one provided by the team and the one provided by the player.  Villar was probably going to be paid between $8M-$10M under that process.  Not a big incremental jump.  The incremental Ws provided by Villar to this team would improve our w-l record and hinder our ability to have a poor record and top 2020 draft position.

 - Someone posted that Villar's 4 WAR season was impacted by a very large number of at-bats.  I doubt teams valued Villar at 4 WAR.  Probably they valued him somewhere around 1-1.5 incremental WAR over their best internal option.

 - I trust that Elias has been trying to trade Villar since last year's trade deadline or before with no takers so far.  Holding onto Villar with the intention of dealing him during the season is too big a risk IMO.

 -  I don't know if there are other internal investments to make or if the savings from losing/dealing Villar will be reinvested in the team, but it would not surprise me if the value of a Rule V pick plus the saved $ has more value to the post 2020 Os than Villar's production.

 - there will be plenty to enjoy next year at the major league level including the 2019 performers plus Hays and the expected early promotion of Mountcastle, possibly Diaz and hopefully a couple of pitchers.  

This is what a cold-blooded (soul-less) front office decision looks like.  

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

It was 3 seasons ago. Depending on the actual issue, if he tried to play through it, etc. Its a lot safer bet because he was 26 ...

I don’t think Villar is any more likely to get injured next year than any other 2B about his age.    After all, he played all 162 last year.   

Having said that, any major leaguer, and particularly middle infielder, faces injury risk.    Have a look at my post about how much 2B and SS get paid, and look at how many of them missed a lot of games.    It’s a lot of them.    It’s just the nature of the game.   
 

 

[Frobby]

On 11/27/2019 at 9:19 PM, Frobby said:

“Jonathan is a very good player.   He had an excellent year and is in line for a substantial pay raise.   Unfortunately, in this stage of the team’s progression we sometimes have to make tough decisions about what’s in the long term interest of the club.    We are concentrating our resources on having a championship team in Baltimore as soon as we can, and we are not at the stage where this was the best use of resources.”

Book it, Elias’ statement will be some version of this, no more detailed than what I wrote.  

Here’s a part of what Elias actually said:

“It’s very difficult,” Elias said. “He was a tremendously exciting player for us all year. Played in every single game. We’ve all seen the numbers he put up. He was a joy to have, certainly my year here, and from everything we’ve seen and heard dating back to 2018 when he came over from the Brewers. And he’s a fun player. He’s a switch-hitter, he runs, he plays hard, he’s a great guy and I’ve personally known him for a long time, so it was hard to let him go. But we’ve got to keep an eye on our strategic objective, which prioritizes the future right now.

“With a guy who’s going into his last year of arbitration with the team, facing free agency, who is set to command a large salary that he’s earned through his play and in years past, when we have an opportunity to use that playing time on other players who may be around longer, to use that payroll on other players and other objectives that fit more tightly with our strategy and get a young pitcher back that we view as a prospect, a potential future piece for the team, it’s something you have to do.”   https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2019/12/elias-on-trade-tenders-and-more.html

How did I do?  

[sportsfan8703]

Judging my similar players, in similar circumstances, I think Elias got max value.  We’re still not even sure of what went down, but it appears that the Marlins passed on Villar while he only cost a waiver claim, then traded an org top 50 player for him. 

Every team in baseball told us that Villar wasn’t worth his $10 million projected arb figure. I think Elias did the best he could in a trade.  

This should get the gears turning about how much is really worth it, in terms of risk/reward, to hold try and hold onto a player and deal them at the deadline versus the offseason. I don’t think a half season of performance matters that much, and the market decreases drastically. 

So what to do with Bundy and Givens?

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Judging my similar players, in similar circumstances, I think Elias got max value.  We’re still not even sure of what went down, but it appears that the Marlins passed on Villar while he only cost a waiver claim, then traded an org top 50 player for him. 

Every team in baseball told us that Villar wasn’t worth his $10 million projected arb figure. I think Elias did the best he could in a trade.  

This should get the gears turning about how much is really worth it, in terms of risk/reward, to hold try and hold onto a player and deal them at the deadline versus the offseason. I don’t think a half season of performance matters that much, and the market decreases drastically. 

So what to do with Bundy and Givens?

According to what experts here said last night, The Marlins will indeed go to arbitration with Villar.Really the only two things that could've happened are Villar would have to clear waivers and became a free agent or claimed and traded.

Since he was traded he had to have been claimed. Otherwise the Players Association would be filing a grievance.

I'm glad we got a prospect buy it was still pennies on the dollar.

 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

According to what experts here said last night, The Marlins will indeed go to arbitration with Villar.Really the only two things that could've happened are Villar would have to clear waivers and become a free agent or claimed and traded.

Since he was traded he had to have been claimed. Otherwise the Players Association would be filing a grievance.

I'm glad we got a prospect buy it was still pennies on the dollar.

 

What evidence do you have that a better return was possible?

[sportsfan8703]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

According to what experts here said last night, The Marlins will indeed go to arbitration with Villar.Really the only two things that could've happened are Villar would have to clear waivers and become a free agent or claimed and traded.

Since he was traded he had to have been claimed. Otherwise the Players Association would be filing a grievance.

I'm glad we got a prospect buy it was still pennies on the dollar.

 

So then shouldn’t the MLBPA be busy filing grievances for all the players that were non-tendered yesterday?  

I know, I know, b-but 4 WAR. 4 WAR no more. It should tell you what clubs think about WAR. 

[Roll Tide]

22 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So then shouldn’t the MLBPA be busy filing grievances for all the players that were non-tendered yesterday?  

I know, I know, b-but 4 WAR. 4 WAR no more. It should tell you what clubs think about WAR. 

So tune into 105.7 FM

The have a quote from Elias “It made sense to make this deal as opposed to moving forward with the arbitration process”

[Roll Tide]

27 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What evidence do you have that a better return was possible?

No more than you have to the contrary. 
 

The Orioles were under Time  pressure to make a move, nontender, or tender him. 
 

Elias said through the media that they weren’t gong to tender him.

[mdbdotcom]

I'm glad Villar will get his money. I'm glad it won't be from the Orioles. I'm glad we got something in return, who, if he develops, will be able to help the team in the future.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

So then shouldn’t the MLBPA be busy filing grievances for all the players that were non-tendered yesterday?  

I know, I know, b-but 4 WAR. 4 WAR no more. It should tell you what clubs think about WAR. 

Why would this have anything to do with teams not valuing WAR?  Villar just had an age-28 season valued at 4 WAR where he played every single game.  You can reasonably assume that he'll decline a bit from a peak year at a peak age, and that he will probably miss three weeks next year because most players miss three weeks for something.  So that four wins becomes more like two.  Which means his surplus value after a $10M arb award is maybe $6M, give or take.  Which is less than a win in free agency.

A WAR-based analysis can get you to Villar being not particularly valuable on the trade market.

[atomic]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So tune into 105.7 FM

The have a quote from Elias “It made sense to make this deal as opposed to moving forward with the arbitration process”

It is obvious why Elias did this.  It was to save ownership money.  If the Orioles wanted the player the Marlins offered they could have drafted him in the 14th round this past June.  There is no baseball reason to not keep Villar.