Pipeline next five years

[weams]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

Yeah, I don’t know if I’d say he “struggled horribly” (his ERA was below league average), but I’d call his year somewhat disappointing and say he didn’t do enough to earn a call-up or presumptively earn a spot in our 2020 Opening Day rotation.    My guess is he starts in Norfolk and gets called up after someone else is struggling 4-5 starts into the season, unless he’s absolutely bombing in Norfolk then.    

PS - I agree the many short starts were a concern.   
 

The Orioles did many piggyback starts and had specific pitching things the had guys working on. To differing levels of success. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, weams said:

The Orioles did many piggyback starts and had specific pitching things the had guys working on. To differing levels of success. 

In Akin’s case, he just wasn’t pitch-efficient this year.    18.0 pitches per inning vs. 16.4 in 2018.    

As both Akin and his coaches have noted, the O’s had him working heavily on using secondary pitches in fastball counts.    That hurt his pitch efficiency and his walk rate this year, but was for his long term development, not short term success.    
 

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

In Akin’s case, he just wasn’t pitch-efficient this year.    18.0 pitches per inning vs. 16.4 in 2018.    

As both Akin and his coaches have noted, the O’s had him working heavily on using secondary pitches in fastball counts.    That hurt his pitch efficiency and his walk rate this year, but was for his long term development, not short term success.    
 

Akin hasn't had the big injury like Bedard did, but he'll be 25 next year just as Bedard was in 2004.  Surviving 25 GS as a straight rookie is tough, but he may have the opportunity.  Certainly if he makes the April rotation, 5 IP/3 ER results I'll view as wins, especially as I suspect in 2020 he'll still have requirements about building out his repertoire.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Akin hasn't had the big injury like Bedard did, but he'll be 25 next year just as Bedard was in 2004.  Surviving 25 GS as a straight rookie is tough, but he may have the opportunity.  Certainly if he makes the April rotation, 5 IP/3 ER results I'll view as wins, especially as I suspect in 2020 he'll still have requirements about building out his repertoire.

I’m not expecting Akin to be nearly as good as Bedard, but he could have a better Orioles career, especially if he proves to be durable.    

[LA2]

15 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We're also going to add 2020's #2 overall pick, and probably #1 overall pick.  We'll have a nice group of high end prospects with a bunch of depth guys behind them to fill out the roster.  We still lack SS depth.  That could change if we take Martin in this upcoming draft.  

Why will we have both the #1 and #2?

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, LA2 said:

Why will we have both the #1 and #2?

2020 #2 pick. 2021 #1 pick. 

It wasn’t the best sentence structure.

Edited December 14, 2019 by sportsfan8703

[tntoriole]

22 hours ago, Frobby said:

2020: Bailey, Rucker, Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer, Zimmermann

2021: Lowther, Wells, Diaz, Bannon, Rutschman, McKenna, Pop

2022: Baumann, DJ Hall, Hanifee

2023: Rodriguez, Rom, A. Hall

2024: Henderson, Hernaiz, Stowers

Some of these guys will get derailed or traded, and some prospects not listed will get some major league time.    A few guys might beat my timetable.    But, that’s how I see the pipeline right now.    

Good list.   I generally agree, but I think Baumann is earlier. 

[survivedc]

I wonder if Adam Hall is going to be a year per level guy. He has been so far, but I think by next year he will be decently filled out and can hopefully split between AA and AAA. 

I generally look at the competitive window as opening in 2022 and am thinking some guys like Hall and Rodriguez come up a bit early.

[sportsfan8703]

If Díaz puts up a big 1st half, I see no upside in terms of development or control for leaving him in the minors. Whether we call him up in June 2020 or OD 2021, he’d still be a FA after the 2026 season. He got paid a $15 million signing bonus out of Cuba, he’s not going to sign for a team friendly extension. He’s going to test the market. 

Diaz is 23. That’s not super young. If he comes up in June we’d have him here though his age 23-29 seasons. He doesn’t have the defensive limitations that Mountcastle does. 

I think he’ll be up. We’ll have Hays in CF with Diaz and Santander in the corners. I think that’s why we’re seeing the talk of trying Mountcastle at other positions again. We’ll keep Mountcastle in AAA for arbitration and control reasons, but to also work on defense at multiple positions. 

Mountcastle up in June of 2020. Diaz up around that same time. 

Edited December 15, 2019 by sportsfan8703

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If Díaz puts up a big 1st half, I see no upside in terms of development or control for leaving him in the minors. Whether we call him up in June 2020 or OD 2021, he’d still be a FA after the 2026 season. He got paid a $15 million signing bonus out of Cuba, he’s not going to sign for a team friendly extension. He’s going to test the market. 

Diaz is 23. That’s not super young. If he comes up in June we’d have him here though his age 23-29 seasons. He doesn’t have the defensive limitations that Mountcastle does. 

I think he’ll be up. We’ll have Hays in CF with Diaz and Santander in the corners. I think that’s why we’re seeing the talk of trying Mountcastle at other positions again. We’ll keep Mountcastle in AAA for arbitration and control reasons, but to also work on defense at multiple positions. 

Mountcastle up in June of 2020. Diaz up around that same time. 

I'm sure someone will suggest they hold him back a month for that extra year.

[Luke-OH]

On 12/14/2019 at 7:51 AM, tntoriole said:

Good list.   I generally agree, but I think Baumann is earlier. 

Good call, if he's not a 2021, he's probably hurt or something went horribly wrong. 

[Roll Tide]

On 12/13/2019 at 9:00 AM, Frobby said:

2020: Bailey, Rucker, Mountcastle, Akin, Kremer, Zimmermann

2021: Lowther, Wells, Diaz, Bannon, Rutschman, McKenna, Pop

2022: Baumann, DJ Hall, Hanifee, Bradish, Sedlock

2023: Rodriguez, Rom, A. Hall

2024: Henderson, Hernaiz, Stowers

Some of these guys will get derailed or traded, and some prospects not listed will get some major league time.    A few guys might beat my timetable.    But, that’s how I see the pipeline right now.    

Missed a couple that I think will make a true impact!

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Missed a couple that I think will make a true impact!

I hope you’re right.    I’m not that high on Sedlock and don’t know enough about Bradish yet to have an opinion.   

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I hope you’re right.    I’m not that high on Sedlock and don’t know enough about Bradish yet to have an opinion.   

I'm higher on Bradish than Hanifee. 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I'm higher on Bradish than Hanifee. 

I waffled on listing Hanifee.    He’s young enough to grow, I hope.