Give me your rosiest semi-realistic scenario for 2020

[Frobby]

Let’s start with this: I don’t want to hear about scenarios that are “rosy” because we end up with the no. 1 draft pick.   I’m only talking about scenarios where we win more games than expected.   What could that look like?

- Mountcastle’s debut is like Trey Mancini’s rookie year.

- Mancini and Alberto hold serve compared to 2020.

- Hays provides an .800ish OPS and solid defense in CF.

- Either Richie Martin equals or betters his second half offensive performance, or we find someone who does.     

- Means holds serve.

- Cobb stays relatively healthy and pitches decently.

- Akin is equal to Bundy.   

- We find someone with a pulse who outperforms Hess/Ynoa/Brooks/Straily

- Givens and Castro perform closer to career norms pre-2019.

Honestly, even if most of that happened, I think we’d only win about 65 games.   And obviously, it won’t all happen.

 

 

[Tx Oriole]

42 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s start with this: I don’t want to hear about scenarios that are “rosy” because we end up with the no. 1 draft pick.   I’m only talking about scenarios where we win more games than expected.   What could that look like?

- Mountcastle’s debut is like Trey Mancini’s rookie year.

- Mancini and Alberto hold serve compared to 2020.

- Hays provides an .800ish OPS and solid defense in CF.

- Either Richie Martin equals or betters his second half offensive performance, or we find someone who does.     

- Means holds serve.

- Cobb stays relatively healthy and pitches decently.

- Akin is equal to Bundy.   

- We find someone with a pulse who outperforms Hess/Ynoa/Brooks/Straily

- Givens and Castro perform closer to career norms pre-2019.

Honestly, even if most of that happened, I think we’d only win about 65 games.   And obviously, it won’t all happen.

 

 

I think the team will will around 65 games. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

I think the team will will around 65 games. 

I will wait until the end of the offseason to make predictions, but with the current team I think they’d only win about 50.    

[weams]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s start with this: I don’t want to hear about scenarios that are “rosy” because we end up with the no. 1 draft pick.   I’m only talking about scenarios where we win more games than expected.   What could that look like?

- Mountcastle’s debut is like Trey Mancini’s rookie year.

- Mancini and Alberto hold serve compared to 2020.

- Hays provides an .800ish OPS and solid defense in CF.

- Either Richie Martin equals or betters his second half offensive performance, or we find someone who does.     

- Means holds serve.

- Cobb stays relatively healthy and pitches decently.

- Akin is equal to Bundy.   

- We find someone with a pulse who outperforms Hess/Ynoa/Brooks/Straily

- Givens and Castro perform closer to career norms pre-2019.

Honestly, even if most of that happened, I think we’d only win about 65 games.   And obviously, it won’t all happen.

 

 

Mancini and Givens are traded. Alberto is real. Means is real. Mountcastle gets a job. Sisco Hits. Hays hits and his ankle does not disintegrate. 

[BirdinBama]

I think we win 63 games, so that we don't have 100 losses or more.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

An unknown player (either someone currently on the 40 that is thought of as "dead weight" or someone that is acquired and everyone goes "....really?") puts on a pretty impressive season for themselves

Means doesn't have a "Sophmore Slump" and flashes "TOR" potential

A "lower level" Minor Leaguer makes some big strides and enters late season ranking conversation for a Top 10 spot

The Norfolk Shuttle has had its annual maintenance and doesn't break down this year

[Aristotelian]

We get good prospects at the trade deadline for Mancini and Givens, dump Cobbs salary, and Davis is released around June. I would be ecstatic.

[Hallas]

John Means repeats.

Chris Davis somehow manages to be a non-negative player.

Alberto takes a step forward.

Mountcastle and Hays have a ROY level season.

Alex Cobb pitches like a middle of the rotation starter, for the whole season.

Mancini repeats.

 

This gets us to about 70 wins I think.

 

Of course, if all of this happens, we almost certainly make some trades, which probably means we’re back down to 65 wins.

 

[Bahama O's Fan]

I just want the games to be exciting, win or lose. I want the starting pitching to develop. I want to see hope for the future with long term pieces getting playing time and making the most out of it.

[Just Regular]

Hunter Harvey All-Star reliever is the rosiest Baltimore thing I have hope for entering 2020.  Hyde's general giddiness about him in September is part of what fuels my optimism.   Means and Mancini are on consolidation years - I feel like in both their cases hoping for another breakout from 2019 goes beyond semi-realistic.

[NCRaven]

We actually sign a starting pitcher before spring training, even if we were his absolute last choice.

Elias stops telling us that they think they can help Chris Davis.  I’m not stupid enough to believe that he really believes that.

The Mancini trade is better that the Villar trade.

 

[Philip]

#1 is get rid of Davis. It is dishonest every time someone from management talks about how they’re working with him and they’re hoping for improvement and blah blah blah and they know it’s BS and we know they know it’s BS and they know we know it’s BS but they still spout the BS.

Mountcastle hits as expected and defends adequately.

Martin hits better, earns and keeps a 25-Spot.

Harvey doesn’t break anything and throws 80+ good innings. Wins ROY. Or comes in second to Hays. I’m fine with either.

Bailey turns out to be real.

Wojo is legit for 180 innings.

Means avoids the dreaded SophSlump

Sisco avoids the laughable lapses. Learns how to tag, for instance.

Mancini never ever steps into the outfield except for warm ups.

Santander repeats his first half but not his second.

its way too early to make a win prediction. At the moment, 50 is a stretch, but ask me again on March 25.

[TheOtherRipken]

We bring a ton of pitchers to camp and by some miracle put out a bullpen this year that makes games watchable after the 4th inning.

[wildcard]

Rosiest realistic scenario.

I think it starts with the rest of the off season:   Elias adds Jose Iglesias on a one year/3m deal.  He adds two Wojo types to the organization to compete for the rotation and long relief.   He adds two more 6 year minor league starters that are major league ready that will begin the  season by filling out the Bowie staff because the AAA starter staff is full.  These two guys will be on the shuttle to the majors in the first half.  Givens is traded for minor leaguers.

With a strong defensive team at SS/2B and CF the defense improves dramatically.

Means improves  to 15-7,  3.30 ERA. 33 S, 190 IP

Cobb is healthy and goes 13-7,  3.00 ERA ,  29 S,  180 IP.  (The O's are in the wild card race at the deadline and Elias waits until next off season to trade him)

Wojo coming off a season where he pitched 168 innings improves.    11-8, 4.00 ERA, 33S,  200 IP

Bailey becomes an opener pitching 3 inning a game and fills the 5th spot in the rotation.   30 S, 100 IP, 4.00 ERA.

The 4th spot in the rotation is filled by a Wojo type acquistion who is replaced by Akin in June.   Akin has a good rookie season eating innings similar to what Means did and  8-8,  3.80 ERA,  20S  120 IP

Harvey, Bleier, Carroll hold down the back end of the pen after Holt changes Carroll FB to give it more movement.

Sulser proves to be a good middle inning guy.   Castro, Phillips, Scott and Rucker all find some success in middle relief.  Elias adds two long men with options.

Lowther, Baumann, Kremer, Zimmerman, Wells, Alvarado, Klimek Tate, Kline and Muckenhirn  help out in the 2nd half.

The pitching staff is pretty solid.

1B Mancini and CF Hays have 900 OPS season.

2B Alberto is solid on defense with a .990 fielding pct  as he did last season and above average range.   He hits lefties well and hit righties close to what he did at AAA in 2018 when he hit 345/361/456/815 against them.

SS  Jose Iglesias  Duplicates last year with a 288/318/408/724 and plays amazing defense leading the infield defense.

3B Ruiz plays good defense and builds on his 766 OPS second half as a platoon player vs righties.   He go 240/320/462/782.  O's add a platoon 3B.

LF Moncastle plays 5 months in left  hits  840 OPS with 80 RBI.

CF Hays stays healthy and plays amazing defense to go with his 900 OPS.

RF Santander gets 600 AB hitting 35 HR and knock in 100 RBI.  Plays above average defense in RF.

DH Nunez hits 36 HR, 100 RBI, 800 OPS

C. Sisco has a 772 OPS vs righties,  Severino has a 812 OPS vs lefties.

1. Alberto 2B

2. Hays CF

3. Mancini  1B

4. Mountcastle LF

5. Santander RF

6. Nunez  DH

7. Ruiz/ platoon  3B

8.  Sisco/Severino C

9. Iglesias SS

O's win the pennant.  Go O's.

 

[sportsfan8703]

Alex Cobb pitches well enough to make himself trade-able.

Mancini puts up similar numbers as last year in the first half.

Givens rebounds and is dominant in the first half. 

We somehow go into the trade deadline with the best available SP, RP, and bat.

Detriot takes Hancock/Torkelson with the #1 pick in June, and we take SS Austin Martin.

Our young players show hope, but we lose enough because of terrible SP to get the #1 pick in 2021. 

Edited December 17, 2019 by sportsfan8703