MASN: Four Remaining Expensive Signings

[atomic]

36 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

The only one that my guess was significantly lower than the cited projected arb salaries was Mancini. He had a really nice season but was it nice enough to warrant a $5MM+ raise? I haven't researched this, but isn't a first year arb ruling for $5.7MM usually reserved for premier talents like Machado? Is there a good comp for Mancini among the 2019 first-year arb players?

Travis Shaw 4.7 Million

Maikel Franco 5.2 million

Eddie Rosario  4.2 million

As for Machado like talents. Lindor got $10.8 million in his first year of arbitration.

[interloper]

I think the Os will trade Givens if they get an offer they like. Otherwise, I agree with Frobby. These guys aren't expensive. If we didn't want to pay them we'd have non tendered them. It's next year when guys like Mancini start to become Villar-expensive.

[Roll Tide]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

What’s the point of having role players on a 110 loss team?  Of course Mancini is different. I’d trade Alberto, Castro, and Severino, for fliers for 2023+.

You are looking for the right return. If it takes a solid second season to get value for Alberto and Severino you wait it out. You don’t trade your potentially good players for lottery tickets.

i wouldn’t give the Orioles a 1981 Chevy Chevette for Castro. I doubt anyone else will either.

[weams]

7 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

You are looking for the right return. If it takes a solid second season to get value for Alberto and Severino you wait it out. You don’t trade your potentially good players for lottery tickets.

i wouldn’t give the Orioles a 1981 Chevy Chevette for Castro. I doubt anyone else will either.

https://www.camdenchat.com/2020/1/3/21047027/orioles-news-links

[Legend_Of_Joey]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Isn't there a reason that Wynns and Wilkerson are around?  Again, we're staring down 110.  Why not get some more lotto tickets?

Get rid of Castro and Givens and suddenly, Stevie might be your best bullpen weapon.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

Would you say something like...

Givens $3.5MM
Mancini $3.25MM
Alberto $1.5MM
Castro $1.25MM

@ $9.5MM total

The only one I’ve really thought about is Mancini.   I think he’ll far short of the projected $5.7 mm, but $3.25 mm is probably too light.     I must say, looking at various comparable players, $3.25 mm is probably closer to a reasonable guess than $5.7 mm is.    Guys like JD Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Matt Carpenter and Corey Dickerson all received about $3 mm in their first year of arbitration.     I think Trey’s track record after 3 years is better than those guys, but not leaps and bounds better.   Heck, Manny only got $5 mm in his first year of arbitration.    I’d say $4.5 mm for Trey would be very generous.   

[SteveA]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The only one I’ve really thought about is Mancini.   I think he’ll far short of the projected $5.7 mm, but $3.25 mm is probably too light.     I must say, looking at various comparable players, $3.25 mm is probably closer to a reasonable guess than $5.7 mm is.    Guys like JD Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Matt Carpenter and Corey Dickerson all received about $3 mm in their first year of arbitration.     I think Trey’s track record after 3 years is better than those guys, but not leaps and bounds better.   Heck, Manny only got $5 mm in his first year of arbitration.    I’d say $4.5 mm for Trey would be very generous.   

Is there inflationary creep or did guys  last year get the same amount in arbitration that comparable guys got 4 or 5 years previous?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

7 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Get rid of Castro and Givens and suddenly, Stevie might be your best bullpen weapon.

Chris Davis can setup for Stevie.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Is there inflationary creep or did guys  last year get the same amount in arbitration that comparable guys got 4 or 5 years previous?

There’s always a little creep, but that’s why I said $4.5 mm would be generous, rather than $3.5 mm.    Michael Conforto got $4.0 mm last year.

[bobmc]

1 hour ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Get rid of Castro and Givens and suddenly, Stevie might be your best bullpen weapon.

I'm wondering if CD is gonna be a two way player this year also?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, bobmc said:

I'm wondering if CD is gonna be a two way player this year also?

I don't think we can force the other team to let him bat.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

22 minutes ago, bobmc said:

I'm wondering if CD is gonna be a two way player this year also?

How about a player whose WAR isn't negative.

[VaBird1]

26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think we can force the other team to let him bat.

What if it was included in the ground rules?

[tntoriole]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

There’s always a little creep, but that’s why I said $4.5 mm would be generous, rather than $3.5 mm.    Michael Conforto got $4.0 mm last year.

The projection for Josh Bell is 5.9 million and Andrew Benintendi is 4.9 million....Trey may get more than 5....

[Beef Supreme]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

The only one I’ve really thought about is Mancini.   I think he’ll far short of the projected $5.7 mm, but $3.25 mm is probably too light.     I must say, looking at various comparable players, $3.25 mm is probably closer to a reasonable guess than $5.7 mm is.    Guys like JD Martinez, Nick Castellanos, Matt Carpenter and Corey Dickerson all received about $3 mm in their first year of arbitration.     I think Trey’s track record after 3 years is better than those guys, but not leaps and bounds better.   Heck, Manny only got $5 mm in his first year of arbitration.    I’d say $4.5 mm for Trey would be very generous.   

I went low on my Trey projection because $5.7MM seemed high and because this is his first year being arbitration eligible. Arbitration is about what numbers are presented by the two sides and we are guessing. I agree the Orioles would more than likely win a hearing by offering $4.5MM than my proposed $3.25, if Mancini's agent countered $5.7MM. The Orioles might be able to win at $4.5 even if the counter were $5.0. Still, I could imagine the the Orioles winning  vs. Mancini by offering less than that.

And what I have conjectured is not intended to diminish Trey's value. I am a fan and think he will continue to be valuable in MLB for the next few years, at least. Maybe @ $9MM in 2021. On another team.