Jump to content

My prediction for how the Davis saga ends


interloper

Recommended Posts

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't agree with your reasoning.  I don't think injury insurance and the chances of a drug suspension factor into team's decisions in a meaningful way.  If they did the Angels wouldn't have paid to get rid of Josh Hamilton.  He was the most likely player to be hit with a drug suspension since Steve Howe.

Was he not in the last year of his deal? Says they only were on the hook for 26.4.  You rarely see anyone cut ties with more than 1 year left.  (Jose Reyes and his Domestic Abuse + Pablo Sandoval)

We agree in it does not play a factor in them playing out the entire length of the deal. Once they reach that final year.(Which is what I alluded to i thought?)

 

Edit: Admit the reasoning could be wrong, but not cutting ties before the final year has been rather true

Edited by Scalious
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, interloper said:

 

The failed contract of Chris Davis is one of, if not the, most complicated failed contracts that currently exists in the game today. Not only that, it's one of the most historically bad contracts the game has ever seen. This fact coupled with the Angelos' stance on contracts in general, the fact that the team is in no hurry to win games at present, and perhaps that it was Peter's last big deal all conspires into a potent mixture that has kept Chris Davis on the roster. Obviously, this sucks. It makes the Angelos brothers look bad, it makes Elias seem weaker, and it makes it seem like Peter still has a good deal of pull behind the scenes. Whether or not all or any of that is true, we will never truly know. Just my opinion on it: I tend to separate the Davis contract from anything else taking place. It's special. It's an unique anomaly not just for the Orioles but for the game overall. It's complicated.

And yet, it's not, from a purely roster/financial standpoint, right? You just eat the sunk cost and move on. While that's not happened yet, I don't necessarily fault the Angelos brothers or Elias on it at this time. Elias and Co. are constructing the scaffolding of the rebuild around Chris Davis. Despite him. He doesn't really matter for the moment. He can be easily cordoned off while the new ownership group supports the front office in making strides in development, international scouting, analytics, and drafting.

There's a case to be made that Davis could fulfill his entire contract through 2022. After all, that's only 2 more years after this season. Even with the arrival of Ryan Mountcastle expected this year, the team could (and probably will) trade Trey Mancini. They could further free up a spot by moving on from Renato Nunez. There are no other slugger 1B/DH prospects knocking on the door other than Mountcastle. If the Orioles aren't as close to being a decent club by 2022 as we hope - and they very well may not be - there's a chance Davis is indeed never released prior to the end of his contract. 

But I don't think that happens. What follows is my prediction of how this whole thing eventually plays out:

  1. Chris Davis has reportedly worked on his approach starting at the end of the season during his lengthy stint on the bench and then continued that work this offseason. Whether or not you believe in Davis' offseason work ethic (I'm iffy on it myself) is secondary here. Elias has confirmed at least that he will be in spring training, that he's "on the team", and that Elias "takes his contract seriously". To me, that means we're getting at minimum another two months of the regular season to see what, if any, improvements Davis has been made.
  2. The next step in my prediction assumes that it's clear by June that Davis has not improved. What follows is a benching similar to what we saw in 2019. Davis makes the occasional start while ceding the majority of time to Mountcastle, who I expect to be up by this time, and others. Hopefully, he avoids the frustration that boiled over last year into a dugout confrontation with Hyde, and remains the good dugout presence for younger guys that he is, by all accounts. In fact, I predict he DOES avoid those frustrations due to the fact that he begins to really see the writing on the wall.
  3. Davis weathers another year of articles, reporter questions, Hyde/Elias dodgy defenses, booing, and criticism and finishes the 2020 season on the active roster. But it's different this time. He's starting to concede that his time in the game and on the Orioles is up. He's a sharp guy and he knows the team has to move on if they're going to get better. They need the roster space, and they need productive hitters. He wants the Orioles to be good, and after a third straight year of batting under .200, he knows the right thing to do is step aside.
  4. I don't believe Davis will force the Orioles hand on a release once he truly believes he just doesn't have it anymore. That said, nor do I think he outright retires out of the good of his heart for the ownership group - that wouldn't look great to the Union, and really, he's earned that right. 
  5. So.. what, then? I predict Davis will meet with ownership, Elias, and Boras and they'll come to an arrangement as unique as the Chris Davis problem itself. He is released. The remainder of Davis' contract (2 years, $34 million) will get restructured or deferred in some way that is better for the Orioles' financial books. The previously deferred portion of his contract remains as is. A decent portion of his remaining salary will be used by him in conjunction with the Orioles to create a charitable fund of some sort that focuses on child health or similar efforts Davis is known to support. Or perhaps it gets funneled into the current Orioles Charitable Fund (https://www.mlb.com/orioles/community/charitable-fund).
  6. Davis then transitions to a role within the Orioles "front office" roughly defined as a community ambassador and charity rep. He'll fall under the "Special Advisors and Community Ambassadors" section of the front office (https://www.mlb.com/orioles/team/front-office) where Brian Roberts, Boog Powell, Eddie Murray, and Brooks Robinson live. He'll make appearance at charities, assist current players with their charitable efforts, and remain an active and visible participant as it pertains to Orioles philanthropy. He's a fun guy (or was when he was productive) and I think he'll use some of that humor and approachability he was known for to good effect in this area. 
  7. And that's it. The Orioles get him off the roster after 2020, but instead of being a sad tale, they reach an agreement that both can feel good about. Davis/Boras still get the majority of what they're owed, but in a way that makes things easier on the Orioles going forward (something I think Davis does care about), while also continuing Davis' outstanding charitable legacy. He remains a part of something with the Orioles, and both he and the Orioles get out of this with some great PR puff pieces. They turn a bad (and often downright sad) situation into something positive for everyone, and those less fortunate will benefit in a big way. It will be one of the game's most significant charitable efforts, something the Orioles already have a great track record with. And Davis gets to control his legacy in the game by ending it with something positive. He'll never shake the "historically bad contract" thing, but he can feel good about meeting that head-on with "historically large charitable effort". Be visible, get in front of cameras and talk openly about it, have a press conference with Elias and the owners, and then put all that energy and money into something bigger and better than baseball. I think he will. 

 

 

This is the most reasonable, and in many ways, the best case scenario when taking into consideration all parties (outside of Davis suddenly becoming the all star slugger he used to be). I'm just not sure it is the most likely. It is, however, just likely enough that we can cross our fingers and hope it becomes reality.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Scalious said:

Was he not in the last year of his deal? Says they only were on the hook for 26.4.  You rarely see anyone cut ties with more than 1 year left.  (Jose Reyes and his Domestic Abuse + Pablo Sandoval) We agree in it does not play a factor in them playing out the entire length of the deal. Once they reach that final year.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/12775283/josh-hamilton-traded-los-angeles-angels-texas-rangers

Quote

Less than halfway through a five-year, $125 million contract, Hamilton was traded Monday by the Angels to their American League West rival for a player to be named or cash. The Angels and owner Arte Moreno, wanting to be rid of Hamilton, agreed to pay most of the remaining $80 million Hamilton is owed under the contract, which runs through 2017.

I've don't recall any bad contract relief coming via a suspension or insurance, not unless you want to count ARod and I think we can agree that was a peculiar situation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meh, it doesn't need to be that complicated.  Just cut him.

Its great that he lead the league in homers twice, which is pretty darn elite company, and was part of three playoff teams. But I don't think he deserves an organizational position based on that alone.  If you want to pick anyone from that period, I'd probably pick Adam Jones.   I'd even consider Tillman, Britton, even Weiters before Davis.

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Meh, it doesn't need to be that complicated.  Just cut him.

Its great that he lead the league in homers twice, which is pretty darn elite company, and was part of three playoff teams. But I don't think he deserves an organizational position based on that alone.  If you want to pick anyone from that period, I'd probably pick Adam Jones.   I'd even consider Tillman, Britton, even Weiters before Davis.

That’s an interesting question - if you could pick a player to be our “fan ambassador” from the 2010’s, who would it be?    Adam Jones is the obvious answer, but after him, who would be your pick?   Seems to me the obvious candidates would be (in no particular order) Davis, Wieters, Hardy, Schoop, Markakis, Tillman and Britton.   I’m leaving Manny out of this since he won’t be retired for another decade and will have spent the majority of his career elsewhere.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That’s an interesting question - if you could pick a player to be our “fan ambassador” from the 2010’s, who would it be?    Adam Jones is the obvious answer, but after him, who would be your pick?   Seems to me the obvious candidates would be (in no particular order) Davis, Wieters, Hardy, Schoop, Markakis, Tillman and Britton.   I’m leaving Manny out of this since he won’t be retired for another decade and will have spent the majority of his career elsewhere.    

Davis does nothing for me. I'd just as soon see Delmon Young as our fan ambassador. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think Crusher comes roaring back and wins MLB Comeback Player of the Year hitting 45-50 homers and knocking in over 100.  

Then what do you do?   

 

Seriously, if that happens, I win the most unlikely prediction coming true award for all-time.  

  I really am not interested in the partial quasi club ambassador role, and I would just prefer a clean break....eat the cost, end the contract, period.  

  • Upvote 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, GuidoSarducci said:

Meh, it doesn't need to be that complicated.  Just cut him.

Its great that he lead the league in homers twice, which is pretty darn elite company, and was part of three playoff teams. But I don't think he deserves an organizational position based on that alone.  If you want to pick anyone from that period, I'd probably pick Adam Jones.   I'd even consider Tillman, Britton, even Weiters before Davis.

JJ Hardy as an infield instructor.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

That’s an interesting question - if you could pick a player to be our “fan ambassador” from the 2010’s, who would it be?    Adam Jones is the obvious answer, but after him, who would be your pick?   Seems to me the obvious candidates would be (in no particular order) Davis, Wieters, Hardy, Schoop, Markakis, Tillman and Britton.   I’m leaving Manny out of this since he won’t be retired for another decade and will have spent the majority of his career elsewhere.    

Caleb Joseph would want the job.  I don't know if the others would.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, El Gordo said:

He'll be gone when his roster spot blocks a promising young player,

That’ll most likely be his 40 man spot before his 26 man spot. I think we’re going to have to legit add 10ish players to the 40 man in November to protect from the Rule 5. 

My prediction... October 2020. The WS/playoffs will be going on. The Ravens will be in full swing.  NBA/NHL/NCAA season kick offs.  Election 2020. It’ll be the perfect time for the O’s to bury the story. Do it on a Friday evening and it won’t even be mentioned on Monday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, tntoriole said:

I think Crusher comes roaring back and wins MLB Comeback Player of the Year hitting 45-50 homers and knocking in over 100.  

Then what do you do?   

 

Seriously, if that happens, I win the most unlikely prediction coming true award for all-time.  

  I really am not interested in the partial quasi club ambassador role, and I would just prefer a clean break....eat the cost, end the contract, period.  

It's unfortunate because last year he had a couple of stretches where he looked like he could be turning it around.  And then went right back to being terrible.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




  • Posts

    • Yeah the amenities are pretty outdated at the yard and they seem to do nothing year over year to improve them. The touchscreens have been banged on to death to the point they barely function, so you can't accurately fill out your order at the kiosks, and they don't have a way for the people behind the counter to ring you up at many of the food places. The sound is low to non-existent in certain sections of the club level, like around 218. Seems like there should be speakers that reach there but they might have been damaged by rain, etc. and they are too lazy to fix them. If you go to a game that's even slightly busy, you will wait forever to get into the bathroom, and the sink will be an absolute mess with no soap or paper towels. It's even worse on the club level where they have one sink that's right by the door. Nearby businesses don't care, either. The Hilton parking garage reeks of decay, pot and human waste. They don't turn on the air circulation fans, even if cars are waiting for an hour and a half to exit from P3, filling up the air with carbon monoxide. They only let you enter the stadium with one 20 oz bottle of water. It's so expensive to buy a drink or water in the stadium, but with all the salty food, 20 oz of water isn't enough, especially on a hot day. Vegetarian food options are poor to none, other than things like chips, fries, hot pretzels and the occasional pizza. Vida Taco is better, but at an inconvenient location for many seats. The doors on the club level are not accessible. They're anti-accessible. Big, heavy doors you have to go through to get to/from the escalators, and big, heavy doors to get to your seats, none of them automatic (or even with the option to be automatic with a button press). Makes it hard to carry food out to your seats even if not handicapped. The furniture in the lounges on the club level seem designed to allow as few people as possible to sit down. Not great when we have so many rain delays during the season. Should put more, smaller chairs in and allow more of the club level ticket holders to have a seat while waiting for thunderstorms to pass. They keep a lot of the entrance/exit gates closed except for playoff/sellout games, which means people have to slowly "mooooo" all the way down Eutaw St to get to parking. They are too cheap to staff all the gates, so they make people exit by the warehouse, even though it would be a lot more convenient for many fans to open all the gates. Taking Light Rail would be super convenient, except that if there's at least 20k fans in attendance, it's common to have to wait 90-120 minutes to be able to board a non-full train heading toward Glen Burnie. A few trains might come by, but they are already full, or fill up fast when folks walk up to the Convention Center stop to pre-empt the folks trying to board at Camden Station. None of the garages in the area are set up to require pre-payment on entry (reservation, or give them your card / digital payment at the entrance till). If they were, emptying out the garage would be very quick, as they wouldn't need to ticket anyone on the way out: if you can't get in without paying, you can always just leave without having to stop and scan your phone or put a ticket in the machine. They shut down the Sports Legends Museum at Camden Station in 2015 because the Maryland Stadium Authority was too greedy. That place was a fun distraction if you were in the area when a game wasn't about to start, like if you show up super early on Opening Day or a playoff day. Superbook's restaurant on Eutaw is a huge downgrade from Dempsey's in terms of menu and service quality. Dempsey's used to be well-staffed, you could reserve a table online, and they had all kinds of great selection for every diet. Superbook seems like just another bar serving the same swill that the rest of the park serves, with extremely minimal and low-quality food. For that matter, most of the food at the stadium is very low quality these days. A lot of things we used to love are made to a lower standard now if they are served at all. These are gripes about the stadium and the area that haven't changed my entire adult life. Going to an O's game requires one to tolerate many small inconveniences and several major inconveniences, any number of which could easily be fixed by the relevant authorities if they gave a damn about the people who pay to come see the team play. You would think a mid-market team would be able to afford to invest in the fan experience. You would think the city and partnering organizations like garages, the Stadium Authority and MTA would at least try to do their part to make the experience enjoyable and free of kinks. You would think they would put some thought into handling the "growing pains" of the fanbase due to recent renewed interest after the dark years. Instead, all we get is the same indifference and the same annoyances year in and year out. The whole area is overdue for a revamp. Not sure if $600 mil will get it done, but at least it's a start. Hopefully they can start to patch up some of the many holes in the fan experience. If you're not going to invest in Burnes, at least make it so paying customers have an easier, more enjoyable time getting to/from the stadium and having some food while we're there.
    • Elias has only been in rebuild mode with the O's so there's not much to speculate on there.  Houston, where he spent his formative years, doesn't seem to like to be on the hook for more than a couple of big long-term contracts at any given time.  I can see that as being Elias' choice as well, albeit with a lower overall cost - Houston runs a big payroll.  But it's all guesswork.  I really don't know. If Elias takes the 2025 payroll to $150 million it will creep up to $200 million or so by 2028 just from keeping the core together.  That's where I start to wonder about sustainability due to market size, economic forces, etc., etc., etc... If it were up to me, I would add a couple of free agents this offseason even if the contracts were longer than ideal and be conservative about extensions elsewhere until the prospects establish themselves a little better.  I think there's a competitive opportunity that the team is already into that's worth exploiting. I think ownership is very happy to have Elias on board and they're not inclined to force him to do anything.  I also think Rubenstein's demonstrated business prowess is great enough to assume that he has had plenty enough time to come to a mutual understanding with Elias as to goals.
    • We need a RH O’hearn…in addition to Westburg. At least 3 batters that will push up the pitch count and cause damage in the top 5 of the lineup.
    • Boy,  that Jackson Merrill is a good young player that is playing his best ball down the season stretch and in the playoffs.   He's only 21.  I guess some young guys are able to play up to the pressure.   Who could have guessed that?
    • I’m aware.   You are arguing something im Not.
    • What agreement? The agreement you are talking about happened as a result of the move.  The MASN agreement would not have existed if Angelos had gone to court to block the move.
    • I’m saying the Os had an agreement with MLB and that should have held up.  Been pretty clear about that. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...